03 29 2012 I President and Congress A Bond and Fleisher say 1 Two sets of factors explain variation in the presidents success in congress i Presidency Centered Explanation a What the president does and how s he does it Ex Skill professional reputation and public prestige 2 Congressional Centered Explanation i Success determined by results of the last election a Partisan and ideological makeup of Congress B Within each party in Congress over the past 45 years there has been an increasingly small amount of ideological diversity 1 Differences between the parties have grown i Why a Disappearance of conservative southern Democrats moderate Republicans and the Conservative Coalition b Today relatively conservative and unified Republican party faces a relatively liberal and unified Democratic Party Base of the president s support will be from his her own party 1 Party arithmetic is decisive II Periods of Congress regarding unification of houses based upon party in power 1 Only 68 168 years had divided government 1 22 26 national elections lead to a unified government A 1832 2000 B 1900 1950 C 1952 1998 government 1 16 24 divided government D Of the 8 presidential elections from 1968 1996 only two elections has produced a unified E 2000 briefly 2002 and 2004 unified government F 2006 divided government again G 2008 unified H 2010 divided III Why does the United States have an increasingly divided government A Underlying causal factor in each is split ticket voting 1 Perhaps weakened party loyalties are a precondition but why do did people vote split tickets B Three explanations of divided government 1 Power of congressional incumbency i Democratic congressional incumbents could withstand national Republican tides in the 1970s 1980s a Single minded seekers of reelection Part of a Continuous Campaign of advertising credit claiming and position taking 2 Jacobson s explanation i Voters saw Republicans as party of presidential issues of peace and prosperity a National issues of defense and the economy ii Democrats as the party of local concerns a who can do the work of the district presidents and Republican congresses 3 Balancing Explanation Fiorina i Some voters purposefully cast divided split votes iii This theory no longer flies because in 94 96 and 98 there were Democratic 04 03 2012 I Divided government government A The same amount of significant legislation comes from divided government as unified B Cognitive madisonions would be cool with divided government because in theory it forces both parties to work together II Influence of national conditions on congressional elections 1 Party if presidential winner picks up congressional seats 8 on average in the house 2 Presidents party loses 22 in the house and 3 in the Senate in a midterm election 3 Presidential coat tails have the declined A Two rules of thumb and 2 in the Senate i Yes but still exists III President and Congress A Why is the relationship difficult for any president B What variables affect the relationship C Resources and tools available to the president D Formal powers Inform Congress on the State of the Union 1 2 Recommend necessary and expedient measures 3 Convene both houses on extraordinary occasions 4 Adjourn Congress in cases of disagreement 5 Veto power E Role of chief legislator a 20th century creation 1 FDR s first 100 day sis a turning point 2 Truman practice of legislative programs in the state of the union F 3 President proposes Congress disposes Inherent difficulties 1 Separation of powers differing perspectives 2 Structure of Congress 2 chambers 20 standing committees in House 17 in Senate 3 Different constituencies national v local Madison in Federal 46 4 Differing time perspectives different length terms also most congresspersons are Carreerists no term limits House members are always running for reelection but hopefully want a career G Variable factors in the relationship 1 Divided or unified government of fellow partisans 2 Nature of the times i Crisis a Congress will be much more willing the give the president what he wants ii Point in time in the administration a Push your political agenda hard and fast during your first 100 days Honeymoon Cycle of Decreasing Influence iii Public prestige Popularity a Going public option iv Professional reputation v Legislative leaderships skills and style a Skills issue selection volume timing H Presidential resources 1 Status conferrals Personal appeals etc 2 Provision of legislative assistance 3 Programs projects and patronage Trading on accounts i 4 Campaign assistance 5 Appeal to the public going public 6 Sympathetic party and committee chairs 7 Office of Legislative affairs Office of Congressional Relations Began with Ike 8 Veto i Only about 1 of bills sent to the President have been vetoed only about 7 of vetoed bills have been over ridden but also threat of veto is looming 04 05 2012 A Scenario One I Simplified veto game assuming Congress cannot muster 2 3rd override majorities 1 President and Congress have sharply different policy preferences President prefers status quo to what Congress wants In this case Congress will not even legislate Congress Status Quo President 1 Congress favors a more drastic change in policy than the president i Congress will pass legislation marginally more attractively to the president than B Scenario Two the status quo C Scenario Three 1 President favors a more drastic change in policy than does Congress i Congress will pass its preferred legislation and President will sign II Myth of Presidential Mandate Dahl Question or two on exam of this A Conditions for clear presidential policy mandate 1 Candidates advance visible differing policy issue positions 2 Large majorities of votes cast for winner 3 Votes cast on prospective policy issue basis 4 Presidents party picks up seats and has large majorities in Congress B Can retrospective voting confer a mandate C Can divided government be associated with a mandate 1 Probably not 1 Probably not D Do mandates have to be active mandates for change 1 Under a classic definition no E What forms do mandates take 1 do that mandate i Prospective issue voting 2 Do something mandate i Electorate is voting for a change 3 Status quo mandate i re election or continued previous policies SCOTUS A Why do POTUS care who serve III President of the United States POTUS and the Supreme Court of the United States 1 SCOTUS Court John Marshall claimed for itself the power of judicial review Marbury v Madison 1803