Comm 402 Theory and Argument 01 25 2012 Theories are arguments o They summarize evidence induction o They generate hypotheses and other implications deduction o They begin by collection clues into a first suspicion or hypothesis abduction o The type of methodology quantitative critical qualitative doesn t matter in these respects Argument as Method o Use methodology to test theory o Actually method is an argument o As an example which is the better design Argument method o Second design two group no pretest experiment is better than first one shot case study o For reasons arguments that you can find in a design book Comparison versus intuitive sense control comparable groups etc These reasons have been worked o Examples of argumentative conclusions in social science Results shouldn t depend on the investigator Data and procedures should be public Comparisons are required Things that happen 5 by chance aren t real Need 70 reliability in measurement o Formal research procedures are nothing more than a codification of the principles of critical thought an essay I wrote o follow instructions and avoid fatal criticisms o Comm402 Argument as Method 01 25 2012 Need theory and data o Theory offers premises o Data can test and extend the premises o Conclusions are new theory Ex o Theory says A causes B o Data say A causes B but only for males o Conclusion need a theory that includes A and B and also distinguishes male from female experience of A and B Arguing toward theory o Theory and data should be of high quality o Theory s quality this whole class Truth beauty and justice What are high quality data o Data Authentic reliable and valid Even recognizing the phenomena is not simple oprerationalization can be controversial eg relational happiness scale Duration Observers judgment Investigator interpretative or distanced eg data from respondents point of view or quasi objective Good arguments may not be conclusive o Why is social science tentative If H is true Data will show X o But this is invalid affirming the consequent If P then Q if you re rich then you re happy The data show X So H is true Q you re happy So P you re rich So we try to falsify Popper not verify Logical Positivism The more falsification efforts something survives the more confidence we have in it The is a community argument Lave March Intro to Models in the Social Sciences Ch 1 What We Are Up To pleasures of thinking about human behavior book is about invention of conjectures imagination speculation with some discipline Model Theory etc o A simplified picture of a part of the real world o will have some veridical features but not all o so can have several models of the same thing o willing to accept as synonyms theory paradigm hypothesis idea How to do it o Necessary skills req practice Abstract from reality Derive implications from model Evaluate a model Accuracy Morality Aesthetic Familiarity with common models COMM402 Argument as Method 01 25 2012 Argument as Method Formal research procedures are nothing more than a codification of the principles of critical thought an essay I wrote follow instructions and avoid fatal criticisms The Four Models in this book messages Individual choice rational choice under risk reaction to persuasive Exchange trade resources cost benefit relationship maintenance Adaptation probability learning model change relational attitudinal personal development Diffusion spread of atts behs thru society rumors fads opinions Why it s Fun an elementary property of human beings Man sic is capable of producing more complex behavior than he is capable of understanding This is the source of the pleasure of social science and of the aesthetic appeal ie coolness factor of models and theories Some examples by definition Can we find things about communication that aren t obvious or true o Notice how many things are really true by definition o Eg ethos credibility is defined as those qualities of a speaker that make him or her believable Aristotle Rhetoric o So finding out that high credibility speakers are more persuasive doesn t prove much Example 1 Credibility o Observation sometimes higher credibility doesn t make a speaker more persuasive Any immediate explanations Possible Explanations Under conditions of high motivation or involvement the audience scrutinizes the message and isn t affected by speaker characteristics Sometimes there s a ceiling effect so more persuasion isn t possible Sometimes there s a cellar effect so that no persuasion is possible at all Example 2 Maybe it s actually genetic DNA etc Maybe it s a survival thing Men could survive by fighting well but Women had to be able to foresee danger Maybe it s a cultural thing Women expected to do family maintenance Women always in charge of intimate relationships so have more experience Example 2 Notice that this example dealing with delicate issues of sex and gender raises questions of morality and justice Would we consider a model that implied that women should stay at home That men have no family maintenance responsibilities Would we be willing to say that s just a bad theory Our Goals for Communication Theory Accuracy a better understanding of our world Aesthetic some theories are cooler than others Morality social science should aim at making a better world 01 25 2012 Comm402 Lave March Ch 2 An Introduction to Speculation Intro to Speculation General method observe then speculate Process P would explain A B and C Abductive inference A B and C happened So maybe P is going on Intro to Speculation Ex 1 Observe Friends live nearby in residence halls Speculate 1 Friends ask to live nearby This would in fact account for the data What further consequences would there be Not what s the evidence that this happened Intro to Speculation Further consequences Should be more pronounced in a jr sr dorm than a freshman dorm But it isn t So speculate again Speculate 2 Students are mostly friendship able with one another so simple opportunity to interact is all that s required Intro to Speculation Accounts for prior data Clusters of friends in dorms Equal effects in frosh soph jr sr dorms Test this easily Intro to Speculation Further consequences since freq of contact increases over time should find friendship clusters growing larger thru the school year Suppose we ve accounted for college student friendship patterns Now we want to generalize the model to make it more interesting Begin by identifying parts of the model that restrict it eg student dorm