Evaluations of SpeculationsI. Trutha. Model must be designed to be testable, falsifiablei. Early cognitive dissonance theory; blame the experiment ii. Freud dismissing a dissenter as going through a father rejection phaseiii. Piling up qualifications to explain results b. Evaluation of Speculationsi. Test exs: why did students riot in 1960s?ii. Model 1: Riots expressed resentment of authority; test by surveying students for resentment 1. Testable 2. But tests model’s assumptions, not its derivations3. Better: find colleges that are more restrictive than others and see if there are more riots iii. Model 2: Riots due to frustration at student demands being ignored; test by “examine the record of student riots on many campuses to see if the model is true”1. Testing procedure too vague to be taken seriously iv. Model 3: taxpayers support free (yes, in Calif at this time) college for students, who therefore owe proper behavior, test by examining taxes and education support1. Huh?2. No process orientation: doesn’t predict student behavior v. Circular Models: cannot be tested 1. Model can account for all possible outcomes2. Eg, rain dances work when hearts are pure3. Eg, self interest produces behavior which gives evidence of self interest vi. Importance of being wrong 1. Must not defend a model unreasonably 2. Try to invent alternative models in hopes of always being right on one count II. Beautya. Elements of Beautyi. Simplicity: cool to find a pattern in a messii. Fertility, heuristic, general, widely applicable to apparently different phenomena, surprise III. Justicea. Social
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