.How people think theoretically, how people generate theories and the process of developing theoryThe world is composed of about 50 variablesArguing—exchanges reasonsTheory—what it is to think theoreticallyTheories are arguments.Theories and ArgumentsThey summarize evidence (induction—guaranteed by explanation)Generalize from particular observations to particular conclusionsStatistics—inductionSample sizes give us an inductive ideaThey generate hypotheses and other implications (deduction)Deduce further consequencesPhilosophy of science—theories in the natural or social disciplines and what they have in mind is frankly a somewhat unrealistic visionNot the whole the pictureDeduction—word substitutionCertain—conclusionThey begin by collecting clues into a first suspicion or hypothesis (abduction—does not result in a firm conclusion)Process of looking at a bunch of observations and imagining something that would account for themThat thing you will imagine is the hypothesis that you will testExample: Police detective—all of the clues would be accounted for if “she” did itAre you in the will? Did he break up with you or did you break up with himReasoning to the best conclusionBest shot to getting it rightSuggestive evidenceWorks from cluesThe type of methodology—quantitative, critical, qualitative—doesn’t matter in these respectsArgument as MethodWhich methodology you use does not matterAll of them argue in a particular wayUse methodology to test theoryActually, method is argumentDesign 1Frighten the studentsTest the studentsConclude that terror improves performanceDesign 2Be nice to the studentsTest studentsNotice second group scored higherConclude that being nice is better teachingArgument=MethodSecond design (two group no-pretest experiment) is better than first (one shot case study)For reasons (arguments) that you can find in a design bookComparison vs. intuitive sense; control; comparable groups; etc.These reasons have been worked out over the decades; i.e., arguments have been settledExamples of argumentative conclusions in social scienceResults shouldn’t depend on the investigatorData and procedures must be publicComparisons are requiredThings that could happen 5% by chance aren’t realP < .05Need 70% reliability in measurementFormal research procedures are nothing more than a codification of the principles of critical thoughtFollow instructions and avoid fatal criticismsNeed theory and dataTheory offers premisesData can test and extend the premisesConclusions are new theoryExampleTheory says A causes BData say A causes B, but only for malesConclusion: need a theory that includes A and B, and also distinguishes male from female experience of A and BArguing toward TheoryTheory and data should be of high qualityArgue for a theoryTheory’s quality (this whole class):Truth, beauty, and justiceTheory has to be accurate—ethics and social justice quite relevant in evaluating a theoryWhat are high quality data?DataAuthentic (reliable and valid)Even recognizing the phenomena is not simple; operationalization can be controversial (e.g. relational happiness—Scale? Duration? Observer’s judgment?)Investigator interpretive or distanced? (e.g. data from respondents’ point of view or quasi-objective?)Communication ModelsModels and theories are the same things, model is a template for the process of reaching a theorySimplified representation of the worldFour Models:Individual ChoiceExchangeAdaptationDiffusionIncludes important elementsNecessary skills and techniques to identify a modelAn ability to abstract from reality to a modelA facility at derivation within an abstract modelA competence at evaluation a modelA familiarity with some common modelsMan is capable of producing more complex behavior than he is capable of understandingSpeculative ModelsTrying to find out different theoretical explanations of what you observeYou have more than one model, so you have a bigger pictureWhat processes lead to what you observe—most important thing in our communication theoriesProcessObserve the fact—simply state what we observeSpeculate the process that results in your observationDeduce implications from processTest validity of implications—refine your modelYou may deduce many explanationsWhether the implications are true—collect data and statistical test, so then the model can be generalizedTheory and data should be of high qualityTheory’s quality (this whole class):Truth, beauty and justiceDataAuthentic (reliable and valid)Even recognizing the phenomena is not simple; operationalization can be controversial (e.g. relational happiness—Scale? Duration? Observers’ judgment?)Investigator interpretative or distanced? (e.g. data from respondents’ point of view or quasi-objective?)Individual makes judgmentDistanced or involved?Survey—distancedGetting involved—nuance data, but raises the possibility of changing the data because of the observer’s presenceThe better the data, the more you trust the theory testThe bottom line is the theory—is the theory good or bad? Need to be modified?Good Arguments May Not Be ConclusiveWhy is social science tentative?If H is true, Data will show X;The Data show X;So, H is trueTheories change, data gets reinterpretedBase syllogism that a social scientist works with on a day to day basisIf the hypothesis is right, I am going to find “X”But this is invalid (affirming the consequent):If P, then Q (if you’re rick, then you’re happy)Q; (you’re happy)So P (you’re rich)Formal fallacyRepresents day to day thinkingArgument as MethodSo we try to falsify (Popper), not verify (Logical Positivism)The more falsification efforts something survives, the more confidence we have in itThis is a community argument—you will get some stubborn peopleIntro to Models in the Social Sciences—Ch. 1What We Are Up To“Pleasures of thinking about human behaviorBook is about “invention of conjectures”Imagination, speculation (with some discipline)Model (=Theory, etc)“A simplified picture of a part of the real world”Will have some veridical features but not allSo can have several models of the same thingWilling to accept as synonyms: theory, paradigm, hypothesis, ideaHow much can I learn about the whole phenomenon by just understanding one thing (one part)Looking at a relationship like a balance sheet—economic model“I took her car to the shop, so she kissed me” (Profit?)By imagining that everything going on in a