Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. NortheastPrepared by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Synthesis Team:Peter C. Frumhoff James J. McCarthyJerry M. Melillo Susanne C. MoserDonald J. WuebblesJ u l y 2 0 0 7A report of the Northeast Climate Impacts AssessmentS c i e n c e , i m p a c t S , a n d S o l u t i o n Sii c o n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c h a n g e i n t h e u. S . n o r t h e a S t e x e c u t i v e S u m m a ry iiiCitation: Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). © 2007 Union of Concerned ScientistsAll rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.The full text of this report and additional technical background information are available on the NECIA website (http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org) or may be obtained from: UCS Publications 2 Brattle Square Cambridge, MA 02238-9105Or email [email protected] or call (617) 547-5552.Designed by:DG Communications, Acton, MA www.NonprofitDesign.comPrinted on recycled paper.ii c o n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c h a n g e i n t h e u. S . n o r t h e a S t e x e c u t i v e S u m m a ry iiiThe Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) is a collaborative effort between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and a team of independent experts to develop and communicate a new assessment of climate change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors in the northeastern United States. The goal of the assessment is to combine state-of-the-art analyses with effective outreach to provide opinion leaders, policy makers, and the public with the best available science upon which to base informed choices about climate-change mitigation and adaptation. a b o u t t h e n o r t h e a S t c l i m at e i m pac tS a S S e S S m e n t iiiAbout the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment NECIA oversight and guidance is provided by a multidisciplinary Synthesis Team of senior scientists:necia SyntheSiS teamPeter Frumhoff (Chair), Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MAJames McCarthy (Vice-Chair), Harvard University, Cambridge, MAJerry Melillo (Vice-Chair), Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MASusanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CODon Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, ILThe material presented in this report is based primarily on the peer-reviewed research of the NECIA collaborators listed below. Most of this research is also presented in more technical detail in the formal scientific literature, including a special issue of the journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Global Change (in press, 2008). climate team Katharine Hayhoe (Co-lead), Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TXCameron Wake (Co-lead), University of New Hampshire, Durham, NHBruce Anderson, Boston University, Boston, MAJames Bradbury, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MAArt DeGaetano, Cornell University, Ithaca, NYThomas Huntington, United States Geological Survey, Augusta, MEXin-Zhong Liang, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, ILLifeng Luo, Princeton University, Princeton, NJEdwin Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CAMark Schwartz, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WIJustin Sheffield, Princeton University, Princeton, NJDavid Wolfe, Cornell University, Ithaca, NYDon Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana- Champaign, ILEric Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJcoaStal teamCoastal FloodingPaul Kirshen (Lead), Tufts University, Medford, MAEllen Douglas, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MAAllan Gontz, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Yong Tian, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Chris Watson, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA Shoreline ChangeAndrew Ashton, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA Jeff Donnelly, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MARob Evans, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA marine teamMichael Fogarty (Co-lead), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, MA Lewis Incze (Co-lead), University of Southern Maine, Portland, MERichard Wahle, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Boothbay Harbor, ME James Manning, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, MA David Mountain, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, MA Andrew Pershing, University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, MEiv c o n f r o n t i n g c l i m at e c h a n g e i n t h e u. S . n o r t h e a S t e x e c u t i v e S u m m a ry vforeStS teamForest Ecosystem ProcessesScott Ollinger, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NHChristine Goodale, Cornell University, Ithaca, NYTree Species HabitatLouis Iverson, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OHBird Species Nicholas Rodenhouse (Lead), Wellesley College, Wellesley, MA Louis Iverson, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OHDaniel Lambert, Vermont Institute of Natural Science, Quechee, VT Stephen Matthews, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OHKent McFarland, Vermont Institute of Natural Science, Quechee, VT Hemlock Woolly AdelgidAnn Paradis, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MAJoe Elkinton, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Coldwater FishClifford Kraft, Cornell University, Ithaca, NYagriculture teamDavid Wolfe (Lead), Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Larry Chase, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Curtis Petzoldt, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Lewis Ziska, United States Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, MDWinter recreation Daniel Scott, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada health teamDon Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Jennifer Cox, City University of New York, New York, NYPaul Epstein, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA Patrick Kinney, Columbia University, New York, NY Christine Rogers, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MACynthia Rosenzweig, Columbia University, New York, NYWilliam Solecki, City University of New York, New York, NY Lewis Ziska, United States Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, MDmeeting the climate challenge teamWilliam Moomaw, Tufts University, Medford, MASusanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Water teamDavid Ahlfeld, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA Sarah Dorner, University of