Outline1. preliminariesSlide 4Landmarks cont.3. Forms of agriculture4. State of global food prospect5. Context of current state of agriculture: Trapped in non-improvement mode?.5. Context of current state of agriculture cont.6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress?6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress? Cont.Slide 127. Agricultural sources of environmental degradationSlide 147. Agricultural sources of environmental degradation cont.Slide 16Slide 17Slide 188. Towards an Agricultural-Environmental Realignment Mitigation8. Towards an Agricultural-Environmental Realignment [Mitigation]Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Intervention in market cont.Conclusion.AGRICULTUREOutline1. Preliminaries2. Landmarks in development of agriculture: 3. Forms of agriculture.4. State of global food prospect5. Context of current state of agriculture: Trapped in non-improvement mode? 6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress?7. Agricultural sources of environmental degradation8. Towards an Agricultural-Environmental Realignment9. Conclusion.1. preliminariesIssues in agriculture: -food security [scarcity and shortage; deprivation and famine]-Agriculture-environment interface.- Puzzle- Challenge- Way out?- Is the Green/biotech Revolution good for the Environment?2. Landmarks in development of agriculture: a) Domestication of seeds- Soyabean domesticated in China about 5,000 years ago; introduced to U.S. 1804.b) Irrigated agric. - Euphrates and Tigris, over 6000 years ago.- Other variants known all over the world.c) Genetic manipulation-1847 Chemical fertilizer, discovered [Germany] that nutrients removed from soil by plants could be replaced in chemical form. - 1935 Japanese Norin wheat released in Japan, and brought to the US in 1946 and cross bred with American seeds.- 1940s US govt, & Foundations set up a plant breeding program in Mexico.Landmarks cont.- 1944 the program thro’ Norman Borlaugh bred dwarf varieties of wheat (1954). 1970, Borlaugh awared Nobel Peace Prize for developing “Miracle Seeds’ - 1956 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, set up by Rockefeller and Mexican Govt was diffusing seeds to developing countries- 1960 [Impact of Mexico] Rockefeller and Ford Foundations set up in Philippines International Rice Research Institute [IRRI]. -1966 IRRI was producing dwarf rice. [Era of Green Revolution in [some] developing countries3. Forms of agriculture1) Traditional-Shifting cultivation - Labor-intensive agric. 2) Modern- Mechanized agricultureCharacteristics of modern agriculture [cf. to traditional agriculture]- intensive use of artificial fertilizers- extensive practice of monocultures- intensive and extensive mechanization-Biotechnology- Focus: develop seeds tolerant to herbicide; resistance to insect and disease.- dogged by controversy4. State of global food prospectGrain harvesting previously rising, now falling- World production nearly tripled from 1950 to mid 1990s.-By 2003, world grain stocks dropped to lowest level in 30 yrs.[downtrend be norm?] -E.gs.- China’s massive decline in grain production between 1998 and 2004, leading to import of 8 million tons.- 1960s, African, unlike India, had no food deficit; today, food scarcity reins [cf. Zimbabwe]5. Context of current state of agriculture: Trapped in non-improvement mode?. -Where are we? Shrinking opportunities [assuming this is a fair interpretation of grain production decline]a) Land: Quality and acreage under cropi) quality Past: solved through opening new frontiers Today: This option is limited; Brazil? - but environmental concerns loom large.ii) acreage under cropPast: increased through irrigationToday, aquifers used up, and any further demand will onlydeplete, meaning more drop in food production.5. Context of current state of agriculture cont.b) Crop yieldsPast: mitigated through increased use of fertilizer.1950-1989: 14m tons -146m.Today: use of more fertilizer has little effect. - Also fertilizer use declining.c) Science and TechnologyPast: spurred grain production, both acreage and yields/acre.Today: biotech may do it, but it is under attack Convergence of dual attacks: i) Environmental and Ideological.- Environmentally counter-productive [human health and biodiversity]- Ideologically - political-economy questions [future of seeds monopolized by a few corporations].ii) Combined forces in developed and developing countries[Before, it was developed vs. developing]6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress?1) Temp. rises undermining food productivity -1 degree Celsius rise in temp. leads to 10% decline in wheat, rice, and corn yields.e.g.- 2003 European heat : Eastern Europe harvested smallest wheat crop in 30 yrs.; Imports.- Sahel is an over-told story- But, new frontiers? Russia & Canada.- How do temp. affect food production?i) World’s fresh water stored in ice and snow in mountainous regions. E.g. smelting snowfields reported in Himalayas, Kilimanjaro and Mt. Kenya ii) worsen or create new crop disease and insect problems.6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress? Cont.2) Falling water tables - Impact of irrigation-many countries affected, including a combination of those accounting for about half of global grain harvest [China, India, US].Eg.Saudi Arabia: used aquifer for irrigation and wheat production rose from 140,000 tons (1980) to 4.1 million tons (1992). - By 2004, aquifer had depleted and production dropped to 1.6 million tons. - Irrigated wheat production threatened.6. Environmental sources of agricultural stress? Cont.3) Soil erosion and desertification [effect on land productivity over time]- Wind and water erosion [mismanaged agricultural activities?] reduces fertility of cropland, hence less yields.- Desertification in Africa and Asia.Eg.In China, some deserts about to merge- parts of northern and western regions.4) Second order Impacts of Environmental degradationi) Collapsing fisheries vs. implication on livestock production.ii) Shrinking forests – implications for both wind and water erosion, hence unsustainable agricultural and grazing opportunities, leading to more erosion; global warming.iii) Disappearing species –biodiversity7. Agricultural sources of environmental degradation1) Loss of vegetation cover - Soil erosion-overgrazing or cultivation in marginal lands. Plowing steep sloping land [if not protected by terraces, or perennial crops, etc.] - Heavy rains or too dry conditions .- vulnerability to both water and wind