Slide 1Life expectancySlide 3Slide 4Contraceptive revolution…but access still limitedSocial and political factors influencing fertilityEducationSlide 9MortalityMaternal healthHIV/AIDSMalariaSlide 14The case of citiesSlide 16Growing citiesSlide 18Environmental impact of citiesThe case of AsiaSlide 21ChinaSlide 23Meat consumption US and China 1960-2004The Challenge of FoodEnvironmental impactSlide 27The FutureHow many people?Key questions for futureSlide 31Population & Population & Environment IIEnvironment IIES 118 Spring ES 118 Spring 20082008Life expectancyLife expectancy2020thth Century saw global Century saw global transformation of human healthtransformation of human health–Worldwide, Worldwide, average life expectancyaverage life expectancy rose from 40 to 65.5 years (projected rose from 40 to 65.5 years (projected to reach 74 by 2050)to reach 74 by 2050)–In India in 1900, average life In India in 1900, average life expectancy around 23 years; by 2000 expectancy around 23 years; by 2000 this had tripledthis had tripled–In US increased from 47 to 77 yearsIn US increased from 47 to 77 yearsLife expectancyLife expectancyFactors influencing include:Factors influencing include:–Better nutritionBetter nutrition–Improved sanitationImproved sanitation–Clean waterClean water–EducationEducation–Access to health and medical servicesAccess to health and medical servicesStrongly correlated with income to about Strongly correlated with income to about $4,000/person, then level out at about $4,000/person, then level out at about 75 years for men and 85 for women75 years for men and 85 for womenwww.gapminder.orgContraceptive Contraceptive revolutionrevolutionFor many, the concept of planning the For many, the concept of planning the number and timing of their children number and timing of their children revolutionaryrevolutionaryBy 2000, more than half of the world’s By 2000, more than half of the world’s women of reproductive age using a women of reproductive age using a modern family planning methodmodern family planning methodEarly attempts to influence fertility Early attempts to influence fertility focused on smaller family size and family focused on smaller family size and family planningplanning……but access still but access still limitedlimited½ billion people live in countries where ½ billion people live in countries where <10% of women use an effective <10% of women use an effective contraceptioncontraception–Largely rural and agriculture-basedLargely rural and agriculture-based–Low per capita incomeLow per capita income–Economic crisesEconomic crises–Waning international supportWaning international supportExamples: Nigeria (8%), Afghanistan, Examples: Nigeria (8%), Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Mali, Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Mali, Democratic Republic of CongoCongoSocial and political Social and political factors influencing factors influencing fertilityfertilitySome countries used restrictive Some countries used restrictive policies, penalizing families with policies, penalizing families with “too many” children“too many” childrenPolicy response shifting to Policy response shifting to broader issues (“social broader issues (“social determinants of health”):determinants of health”):–Maternal and child healthMaternal and child health–Recognition of importance of Recognition of importance of gender and links between gender and links between poverty, gender roles, inequality, poverty, gender roles, inequality, and healthand health–Education, sanitation, Education, sanitation, transportation, clean watertransportation, clean waterUN Millennium Goals target many UN Millennium Goals target many of these issuesof these issuesEducationEducationKerala, India Kerala, India –One of poorer One of poorer states in India, but states in India, but India's highest life India's highest life expectancy and expectancy and lowest infant lowest infant mortality ratesmortality rates–High literacy High literacy rates, especially rates, especially among womenamong womenwww.gapminder.orgMortalityMortalityRapid growth in world’s population Rapid growth in world’s population in last century caused largely be in last century caused largely be decline in crude death ratesdecline in crude death ratesTimeMaternal healthMaternal healthHIV/AIDSHIV/AIDSBetween 2000-2050, AIDS projected to cause premature deaths of 278 million people in 53 countries—38 in AfricaMalariaMalariaWhy is Malaria getting worse?Why is Malaria getting worse?–Drug resistanceDrug resistance–Environmental and social change Environmental and social change (poverty, dams, irrigation, deforestation, (poverty, dams, irrigation, deforestation, war, lack of basic sanitation…)war, lack of basic sanitation…)–Cost of controlCost of controlCase StudiesCase StudiesThe case of citiesThe case of citiesWe are now an urban planetWe are now an urban planet–1900: 10% of global population1900: 10% of global population–2008: >50% of world’s 6.6b 2008: >50% of world’s 6.6b people and growingpeople and growingGrowing citiesGrowing citiesBy 2030,~ 5 billion By 2030,~ 5 billion people will live in citiespeople will live in citiesMore than 95% of net More than 95% of net increase in the global increase in the global population will be in cities population will be in cities in developing world, in developing world, mostly in Asiamostly in AsiaLargest “mega-cities” are Largest “mega-cities” are growing to growing to unprecedented sizes, but unprecedented sizes, but most do not live in mega-most do not live in mega-citiescitiesR. Mace Science 319, 764 -766 (2008)Environmental impact Environmental impact of citiesof citiesHot spots of production, consumption, Hot spots of production, consumption, and waste generationand waste generation<3% of land surface but<3% of land surface but–78% of global carbon emissions78% of global carbon emissions–60% of residential water use60% of residential water use–76% of wood for industrial purposes76% of wood for industrial purposes–Huge “Huge “ecological footprintsecological footprints””Cities thus present both problems and Cities thus present both problems and solutions to sustainability challenges in solutions to sustainability challenges in an increasingly urban worldan increasingly urban worldThe case of AsiaThe case of AsiaPace of economic change in