Hmwk Problems: Forecasting Problem 4:An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5Requests: 20 22 18 21 22Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naïveb. A four-period moving averagec. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast. Problem 7:Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows: Week Number Week Number Week Number1 220 7 350 13 4602 245 8 360 14 4753 280 9 400 15 5004 275 10 380 16 5105 300 11 420 17 5256 310 12 450 18 541a. Determine a linear trend line for freight car loadings.b. Use the trend equation to predict loadings for weeks 20 and 21.c. The manager intends to install new equipment when the volume exceeds 800 loadings per week. Assuming the current trend continues, the loading volume will reach that level in approximately what week? 1Problem 28:Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgement and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows: Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 21 770 771 7692 789 785 7873 794 790 7924 780 784 7985 768 770 7746 772 768 7707 760 761 7598 775 771 7759 786 784 78810 790 788 788a. Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast.
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