Weather MapsImageryForecast ProceduresForecasting MethodsTypes of ForecastsForecast PeriodsAssessing Forecasts/Post-processingLimitations on ForecastingSupplemental Topic – Weather Analysis and ForecastingAnalysis vs. Forecasting- analysis- forecastingWeather Maps- surface mapso Fig. 13-9o large-scale featureso station models what do they show? what info is included?- upper-level mapso example – p. 170, Fig. 5.23o radiosondeso standard pressure levelso information providedo analysis shows…o thermodynamic diagramsImagery- satellite – - radar – Forecast Procedures- analysis - predictiono Q: How can this lead to problems?- post-processingo model output statistics (MOS) try to take local factors into account (e.g., topography)Forecasting Methods- climatological forecasto based ono accuracy and precision- persistence forecasto based ono better for- analog forecasto based ono why is this not always reliable?- numerical weather forecastingo based ono why be concerned about this method?Types of Forecasts- quantitative:- qualitative:- probability:Forecast Periods- “nowcasts”o period of coverageo detail accuracy- short-termo period of coverageo detail accuracy- medium rangeo period of coverageo detail accuracy- long-rangeo performed by Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in U.S.o period of coverageo use climatology, statistics, numerical models, and subjective judgmento things to remember:Assessing Forecasts/Post-processing- why do this?- forecast quality vs. forecast value- forecast accuracy vs. forecast skillLimitations on
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