Chapter 11Biases in Perception of Cause and EffectShengying LiProf. Klaus MuellerCSE591 Visualization AnalysisStony Brook UniversitySpring 2007Biases in Cause and EffectIndex Bias in Favor of Causal Explanations Bias Favoring Perception of Centralized Direction Similarity of Cause and Effect Internal vs. External Causes of Behavior Overestimating Our Own Importance Illusory CorrelationCausal Explanations Over search for coherencecoherenceRegularpatternIf noContinue searchConclude fromrandomnessMoreknowledgeMisleading Issue of Cause Random events often have pattern Predication of bomb hit position Computer simulated animal evolutionFavoring of Centralized DirectionCentralized Direction Reason Slow to perceive accidents, small causes to large results  Quick to see coordinated actions, conspiracies  Consequence Failure when the behavior is inconsistant Wrong attention for isolated behavior Overestimate important one’s inference to others Perceive inconsistent policies as duplicity Similarity of Cause and Effect Similarities between cause and effect dominates ones judgment Small event causes small effect Large animals leave large track Exceptions Small ants destroy big denInternal v.s. External Causes Internal Attitude, beliefs, personality External Incentives, role requirements, social pressure Overestimate internal causes Lack of knowledge of other people’s past behavior Incline to focus on different people’s behavior under same situationOverestimate own importance Overestimate my importance  Familiar with my efforts to influence others Less informed with other factors Other facts Take my actions as the cause of succeed, not failure Parents take credit for good children, less blame for bad ones  Take hurting actions as intentional expressions It may be unintendedIllusory correlation Correlation is one basis for inferring causation  Existence of one implies existence of the other  But not necessarily being causation Co-occur two may have same cause One maybe always follows the other Example Bad economics leads to rising support of opposite party Domestic problem leads to foreign adventurism How Illusory Correlation Happens?  Illusory correlation occurs when people try to perceive non-exist relationship Trend: focus on supporting evidence, ignore conflict one2525Not F2525FNot AAHow Illusory Correlation Happens?  Illusory correlation occurs when people try to perceive non-exist relationship Trend: focus on supporting evidence, ignore conflict one => incomplete data?35Not Deception?83DeceptionLow StakeHigh StakeHow Illusory Correlation Happens? • Illusory correlation occurs when people try to perceive non-exist relationship– Trend: focus on supporting evidence, ignore conflict one => incomplete data– Erroneous theories happen when they look plausibleConclusion • Take one more second …• The world is far more complicated than it appears ☺Who is the cause