Chapter 14Improving Intelligence AnalysisShinichiro TerashimaXiaotian YinIntroduction Introduction Checklist for Analysts Management of Analysis ConclusionHow can Intelligence analysis be improved (introduction) Collecting more and better information for analysts to work with Changing the management of the analytical process Increasing the number of analysts Providing language and area studies to improve analysts’ substantive expertise Revising employee selection and retention criteria  Improving report-writing skills Fine-tuning the relationship between intelligence analysts and intelligence consumers  Modifying types of analytical products ANALYSIS IS, ABOVE ALL, A MENTAL PROCESS!!!!Checklist for Analysts (6key steps) Defining the Problem Generating Hypotheses Collecting Information Evaluating Hypotheses Selecting the Most Likely Hypothesis Ongoing MonitoringDefining the problem Ask the right questions Clarify any tradeoff between quality of analysis and what you can accomplish within a specified time deadlineGenerating Hypotheses Identify all plausible hypotheses that need to be considered Whittle the list down to a workable number of hypotheses Decipher between deceptive hypotheses and reasonable hypotheses Deceptive Hypotheses: another country or group is engaging in denial and deception to influence US perceptions and actionsCollecting information Dig for information Collect information to evaluate reasonable hypotheses Explore alternative hypotheses Suspend Judgment while information is being assembled on each of the hypothesesEvaluating Hypotheses Do not be misled by preconceived idea Recognize the fact that your conclusion might depend on how you interpret the evidence Use the matrix format to keep track of evidence  Guard against the various cognitive biases When making a judgment, spend time on consulting with expertsSelecting the Most Likely Hypothesis Try to reject hypotheses Consider all reasonable hypotheses Insert odds ratio or probabilityOngoing Monitoring Monitor a change. Pay attention to any feeling of surpriseManagement of Analysis Research Training Exposure to alternative mind-sets Guiding analytical productsResearch Better understanding of  Thinking skills, cognitive limitation Choice of scholars Various background: cognitive psychologists, post-doctor mind-sets and implicit mental models Screens or lens towards foreign areasTraining Focus More on thinking and reasoning processes, than on organizational procedures, writing style. supplementation  experienced coach on-the-fly monitor and guidance Learn from both analytical failure and success over a series of related judgements, not a single instanceExposure to alternative mind-sets Let well-reasoned competing views stand out help analysts remain open to alternative views Avoid “everybody-thinks-like-us” mindset Consultation with outside experts Interdisciplinary brainstorming Pre-publication review from other areas’ point of view, etcGuiding analytical products Reject “single-minded” decision low-probability, high-impact events Be aware of, allocate resources to Let consumers know Both limitations and capabilities of intelligence analysisConclusion Occasional intelligence failures must be expected. Analysis can be improved by the measures discussed in the