Chapter 7. StructuringAnalytical ProblemVisual analyticsEun Ju NamProblems in doing intelligence analysisz The Magic Number Seven—Plus or Minus Two : the number of things most people can keep in working memory at one time. z This causes problems to do complicated analysis. Tools for dealing with complexity in analysisz Decomposition• Decompose a complex problem into simpler problems, get one’s thinking straight in these simpler problems.z Externalization• Get the decomposed problem out of one’s head and down on paper or on a computer screen in some simplified form that shows the main variables, parameters, or elements of the problem and how relate to each other. 200 years ago. Benjamin Franklin’s letter.z He mentioned about solving the decision problem.z Why the decision problem is difficult?• People cannot keep all the pros and cons in mind at the same time.z Solution?• Write down all the pros and cons onto paper in some visible, shorthand form. • It allows you make a global judgment effectively.Multiattribute Utility Analysisz You want to choose the best car among various cars.z What is the best car?• Lowest maintenance cost? Highest resale value? Slickest styling? Best gas mileage? Largest trunk space? z How to make a decision?• Car purchase matrix1. List the important attributes you want to maximize.2. Quantify the relative importance of each attributes.3. Identify the cars you are considering and judge each one ranks on each of attributes.4. Multiply the percentage value by the value of each cars Conclusionz This is a warmup for the following chapter. z You will apply decomposition, externalization, and the matrix structure to a common type of intelligence problem in the next chapter!z Thank
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