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Benchmark Poll
initial poll on a candidate and issues on which campaign strategy is based and against which later polls are compared
Exit Polls
election-related questions asked of voters right after they vote
Gender Gap
the tendency of men and women to differ in their political views on some issues
Marriage Gap
the tendency for married people to hold political opinions that differ from those of people who have never married
On-line Processing
the ability to receive and evaluate information as events happen, allowing us to remember our evaluation even if we have forgotten the specific events that caused it
Opinion Leaders
people who know more about certain topics than we do and whose advice we trust, seek out, and follow
Political socialization
the process by which we learn our political orientations and allegiances
Public opinion
the collective attitudes and beliefs of individuals on one or more issues
Public opinion polls
scientific efforts to estimate what an entire group thinks about an issue by asking a smaller sample of the group for its opinion
push polls
polls that ask for reactions to hypothetical, often false, information in order to manipulate public opinion
random samples
samples chosen in such a way that any member of the population being polled has an equal chance of being selected
rational ignorance
the state of being uninformed about politics because of the cost in time and energy
sample bias
the effect of having a sample that does not represent all segments of the population
sampling error
a number that indicates within what range the results of a poll are accurate
tracking polls
ongoing series of surveys that follow changes in public opinion over time
two-step flow of information
the process by which citizens take their political cues from more well-informed opinion leaders
astroturf lobbying
indirect lobbying efforts that manipulate or create public sentiment
collective good
a good or service that, by its very nature, cannot be denied to anyone who wants to consume it
dealignment
a trend among voters to identify themselves as independents rather than as members of a major party
direct lobbying
direct interaction with public officials for the purpose of influencing policy decisions
economic interest groups
groups that organize to influence government policy for the economic benefit of their members
electioneering
the process of getting a person elected to public office
equal opportunity interest groups
groups that organize to promote the civil and economic rights of underrepresented or disadvantaged groups
expressive benefits
selective incentives that derive from the opportunity to express values and beliefs and to be committed to a greater cause
free rider problem
the difficulty groups face in recruiting when potential members can gain the benefits of the group's actions whether they join or not
governing
activities directed toward controlling the distribution of political resources by providing executive and legislative leadership, enacting agendas, mobilizing support, and building coalitions
grassroots lobbying
indirect lobbying efforts that spring from widespread public concern
indirect lobbying
attempts to influence government policymakers by encouraging the general public to put pressure on them
interest group
an organization of individuals who share a common political goal and unite for the purpose of influencing government decisions
issue advocacy ads
advertisements that support issues or candidates without telling constituents how to vote
lobbying
interest group activities aimed at persuading policymakers to support the group's positions
material benefits
selective incentives in the form of tangible rewards
nominating convention
formal party gathering to choose candidates
partisanship
loyalty to a political cause or party
party activists
the “party faithful”; the rank-and-file members who actually carry out the party’s electioneering efforts
party base
members of a political party who consistently vote for that party's candidates
party bosses
party leaders, usually in an urban district, who exercised tight control over electioneering and patronage
party eras
extended periods of relative political stability in which one party tends to control both the presidency and Congress
party identification
voter affiliation with a political party
party machines
mass-based party systems in which parties provided services and resources to voters in exchange for votes
party organization
the official structure that conducts the political business of parties
party platform
list of policy positions a party endorses and pledges its elected officials to enact
party primary
nomination of party candidates by registered party members rather than party bosses
party-in-government
members of the party who have been elected to serve in government
party-in-the-electorate
ordinary citizens who identify with the party
patronage
system in which successful party candidates reward supporters with jobs or favors
political action committee (PAC)
the fundraising arm of an interest group
political party
a group of citizens united by ideology and seeking control of government in order to promote their ideas and policies
public interest groups
groups that organize to influence government to produce collective goods or services that benefit the general public
realignment
substantial and long-term shift in party allegiance by individuals and groups, usually resulting in a change in policy direction
responsible party model
party government when four conditions are met: clear choice of ideologies, candidates pledged to implement ideas, party held accountable by voters, and party control over members
revolving door
the tendency of public officials, journalists, and lobbyists to move between public and private sector (media, lobbying) jobs
selective incentives
benefits that are available only to group members as an inducement to get them to join
social protest
public activities designed to bring attention to political causes, usually generated by those without access to conventional means of expressing their views
solidarity benefits
selective incentives related to the interaction and bonding among group members
closed primaries
primary elections in which only registered party members may vote
electoral mandate
the perception that an election victory signals broad support for the winner’s proposed policies
front-loading
the process of scheduling presidential primaries early in the primary season
front-runner
the leading candidate and expected winner of a nomination or an election
government matching funds
money given by the federal government to qualified presidential candidates in the primary and general election campaigns
hard money
campaign funds donated directly to candidates; amounts are limited by federal election laws
invisible primary
early attempts to raise money, line up campaign consultants, generate media attention, and get commitments for support even before candidates announce they are running
issue advocacy ads
advertisements that support issues or candidates without telling constituents how to vote
issue ownership
the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area
motor voter bill
legislation allowing citizens to register to vote at the same time they apply for a driver’s license or other state benefit
negative advertising
campaign advertising that emphasizes the negative characteristics of opponents rather than one’s own strengths
open primaries
primary elections in which eligible voters do not need to be registered party members
oppo research
investigation of an opponent’s background for the purpose of exploiting weaknesses or undermining credibility
party caucus
local gathering of party members to choose convention delegates
position issues
issues on which the parties differ in their perspectives and proposed solutions
presidential primary
an election by which voters choose convention delegates committed to voting for a certain candidate
prospective voting
basing voting decisions on well-informed opinions and consideration of the future consequences of a given vote
retrospective voting
basing voting decisions on reactions to past performance; approving the status quo or signaling a desire for change
soft money
unregulated campaign contributions by individuals, groups, or parties that promote general election activities but do not directly support individual candidates
swing voters
the approximately one-third of the electorate who are undecided at the start of a campaign
valence issues
issues on which most voters and candidates share the same position
voter mobilization
a party’s efforts to inform potential voters about issues and candidates and persuade them to vote
wedge issue
a controversial issue that one party uses to split the voters in the other party
blogs
web logs, or online journals, that can cover any topic, including political analysis
civic journalism
a movement among journalists to be responsive to citizen input in determining what news stories to cover
commercial bias
the tendency of the media to make coverage and programming decisions based on what will attract a large audience and maximize profits
feeding frenzy
excessive press coverage of an embarrassing or scandalous subject
framing
process through which the media emphasize particular aspects of a news story, thereby influencing the public's perception of the story
gatekeepers
journalists and media elite who determine which news stories are covered and which are not
horse-race journalism
the media's focus on the competitive aspects of politics rather than on actual policy proposals and political decisions
leaks
confidential information secretly revealed to the press
mass media
means of conveying information to large public audiences cheaply and efficiently
news management
the efforts of a politician's staff to control news about the politician
permanent campaign
the idea that governing requires a continual effort to convince the public to sign onto the program, requiring a reliance on consultants and an emphasis on politics over policy
political accountability
the democratic principle that political leaders must answer to the public for their actions
priming
the way in which the media's emphasis on particular characteristics of people, events, or issues influences the public's perception of those people, events, or issues
revolving door
the tendency of public officials, journalists, and lobbyists to move between public and private sector (media, lobbying) jobs
selective perception
the phenomenon of filtering incoming information through personal values and interests
sound bite
a brief, snappy excerpt from a public figure's speech that is easy to repeat on the news
spin
an interpretation of a politician's words or actions, designed to present a favorable image
balanced budget
a budget in which expenditures equal revenues
Bush Doctrine
policy that supports preemptive attacks as a legitimate tactic in the U.S. war on state-sponsored terrorism
capital gains tax
a tax levied on the returns that people earn from capital investments, like the profits from the sale of stocks or a home
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
the government organization that oversees foreign intelligence-gathering and related classified activities
Cold War
the half-century of competition and conflict after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union (and their allies)
compellence
using foreign policy strategies to persuade, or force, an actor to take a certain action
consumption tax
a plan in which people are taxed not on what they earn but on what they spend
containment
the U.S. Cold War policy of preventing the spread of communism
crisis policy
foreign policy, usually made quickly and secretly, that responds to an emergency threat
deficits
shortfalls in the budget due to the government spending more in a year than it takes in
Department of Defense
the executive department charged with managing the country’s military personnel, equipment, and operations
Department of State
the executive department charged with managing foreign affairs
deregulation
the elimination of regulations in order to improve economic efficiency
director of national intelligence
overseer and coordinator of the activities of the many agencies involved in the production and dissemination of intelligence information in the U.S. government, as well as the president’s main intelligence adviser
distributive policies
policies funded by the whole taxpayer base that address the needs of particular groups
economic policy
all the different strategies that government officials employ to solve economic problems
entitlement program
a federal program that guarantees benefits to qualified recipients
Federal Reserve System
independent commission that controls the money supply through a system of twelve federal banks
fiscal policy
economic policy in which government regulates the economy through its powers to tax and spend
flat tax
a tax system in which all people pay the same percentage of their income
food stamps
a program that provides assistance to the poor to help them buy food
foreign policy
a country’s official positions, practices, and procedures for dealing with actors outside its borders
intelligence community
the agencies and bureaus responsible for obtaining and interpreting information for the government
interest rates
the cost of borrowing money calculated as a percentage of the money borrowed
intergovernmental organizations
bodies, such as the United Nations, whose members are countries
interventionism
a foreign policy view that the United States should actively engage in the affairs of other nations in order to try to shape events in accordance with U.S. interests
isolationism
a foreign policy view that nations should stay out of international political alliances and activities, and focus on domestic matters
Joint Chiefs of Staff
the senior military officers from four branches of the U.S. armed forces
means-tested programs
social programs whose beneficiaries qualify by demonstrating need
Medicaid
a federally sponsored program that provides medical care to the poor
monetary policy
economic policy in which government regulates the economy by manipulating interest rates to control the money supply
multinational corporations
large companies that do business in multiple countries
National Security Council (NSC)
organization within the executive office of the president that provides foreign policy advice to the president
nongovernmental organizations
organizations comprising individuals or interest groups from around the world focused on a special issue
progressive taxes
taxes whose rates increase with income
public policy
a government plan of action to solve a problem
redistributive policies
policies that shift resources from the “haves” to the “have-nots”
regressive taxes
taxes that require poor people to pay a higher proportion of their income than do the well off
regulatory policies
policies designed to restrict or change the behavior of certain groups or individuals
social insurance programs
programs that offer benefits in exchange for contributions
social policies
distributive and redistributive policies that seek to improve the quality of citizens’ lives
Social Security
a social insurance program under which individuals make contributions during working years and collect benefits in retirement
Social Security Act
the New Deal Act that created AFDC, Social Security, and unemployment insurance
social welfare policies
public policies that seek to meet the basic needs of people who are unable to provide for themselves
strategic policy
foreign policy that lays out a country’s basic stance toward international actors or problems
structural defense policy
foreign policy dealing with defense spending, military bases, and weapons procurement
subsidy
financial incentive given by the government to corporations, individuals, or other governments
surpluses
the extra funds available because government revenues are greater than its expenditures
Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF)
a welfare program of block grants to states that encourages recipients to work in exchange for time-limited benefits
Value-added tax (VAT)
a consumption tax levied at each stage of production, based on the valued added to the product at that stage
Medicare
the federal government’s health insurance program for the elderly and disabled
Why Public Opinion Matters
The government’s legitimacy rests on the idea that government exists to serve the interests of its citizens. Politicians act as though they believe the public is keeping tabs on them.
How do we form opinions on politics?
Political Socialization: The process by which political preferences and allegiances are formed. Environmental factors largely influence this process. Agents of socialization: People or organizations which influence one’s outlook on politics.  Agents help cut down on “information cost…
Political Socialization
The process by which political preferences and allegiances are formed. Environmental factors largely influence this process.
Agents of socialization
People or organizations which influence one’s outlook on politics.  Agents help cut down on “information costs” associated with political learning.
Where do we get our opinions from?
Family Schools and education Groups“Spiral of Silence”: Those who hold minority opinions often suppress them. Political and social events Large scale events like war or social change can exert a large influence on a generation Media Provide information to audiences at fairly limited…
Shortcuts and Opinion Leaders
Most voters take shortcuts in order to process political information. Two-step flow of information: When citizens take their political cues from informed opinion leaders. Opinion leaders: like-minded people who we can turn to for    information on politics.                       Can …
Two-step flow of information
When citizens take their political cues from informed opinion leaders
Opinion leaders
like-minded people who we can turn to for information on politics. elites (news anchors, academics, politicians)   non-elites (family members, neighbors, etc.)
Ideology/Party Identification
Studies from the 1960’s indicated that party I.D. was the most significant predictor of political opinion. Recently, Ideology has become more important. The two major parties have drifted towards more ideologically consistent positions. Democrats tend to be liberal, Republicans tend …
The most significant predictor of political opinion in the 1960's
Party I.D.
The most significant predictor of political opinion in recent times
Ideology has become more important. The two major parties have drifted towards more ideologically consistent positions. Democrats tend to be liberal, Republicans tend to be conservative 
Self-Interest/Income Level
Voters tend to form preferences based on economic self-interest. Views about regulation of the economy and taxes often depend on class background    
Education
People who are more educated tend to be more civically engaged and politically active. People with higher levels of education are more likely to be informed about political processes.    
Age
Political outlook is remarkably consistent with age. People become more civically involved as they get older. Participation rates rise as the electorate ages.
Gender
Gender Gap: The difference in ideology between men and women. On average, women tend to be more liberal and men more conservative. Women’s issues have recently become a focus of political campaigns. Reproductive rights, Pay equality for women, etc. have become intensely debated issue…
Gender Gap
The difference in ideology between men and women. On average, women tend to be more liberal and men more conservative.
Race and Ethnicity
Americans of different ethnic backgrounds show different levels of concern for specific issues. Historically… White voters have been split between the 2 major parties. African Americans have been strong Democrats since the 1960s Hispanics have leaned towards Democrats in recently elec…
Religion
Religious faith plays an important role in the the electoral decisions of many people. Historically speaking… Evangelical and Mainline Protestant voters tend to lean Republican. Catholic, Jewish, Black Protestant and Muslim voters tend to lean Democratic. Shifts in vote by religious a…
Geographic Region
Different Types of Issues vary in their importance throughout the country. Some scholars (Joel Lieske) divide the United States into different “regional subcultures” based on cultural background, issue preferences, ideology, etc.
Sampling allows us to?
...
How to build a representative sample
Should be between 1,000-2,000 people. Sampling error: How accurate of a representation is the same chosen. Calculated difference between the results of multiple random samples. Margin of error: Smaller is better. Larger samples have smaller error. 
Sampling error
How accurate of a representation is the same chosen. Calculated difference between the results of multiple random samples. Margin of error: Smaller is better. Larger samples have smaller error.
Pollsters strive for?
random samples Random samples do not over-represent any particular group. Allow the sample to be generalized to stand for the whole country.
Random samples
Random samples do not over-represent any particular group. Allow the sample to be generalized to stand for the whole country.
Eliminating sample bias
Pollsters strive for random samples. Strict rules for choosing a sample for any type of scientific or social science query.   Stratified sampling:  Divides groups into subcategories (usually demographically or geographically) before randomly selecting. Weighted samples: Occasiona…
Stratified sampling
Divides groups into subcategories (usually demographically or geographically) before randomly selecting

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