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Study Guide: Final Exam
Benchmark Poll |
initial poll on a candidate and issues on which campaign strategy is based and against which later polls are compared |
Exit Polls |
election-related questions asked of voters right after they vote |
Gender Gap |
the tendency of men and women to differ in their political views on some issues |
Marriage Gap |
the tendency for married people to hold political opinions that differ from those of people who have never married |
On-line Processing |
the ability to receive and evaluate information as events happen, allowing us to remember our evaluation even if we have forgotten the specific events that caused it |
Opinion Leaders |
people who know more about certain topics than we do and whose advice we trust, seek out, and follow |
Political socialization |
the process by which we learn our political orientations and allegiances |
Public opinion |
the collective attitudes and beliefs of individuals on one or more issues |
Public opinion polls |
scientific efforts to estimate what an entire group thinks about an issue by asking a smaller sample of the group for its opinion |
push polls |
polls that ask for reactions to hypothetical, often false, information in order to manipulate public opinion |
random samples |
samples chosen in such a way that any member of the population being polled has an equal chance of being selected |
rational ignorance |
the state of being uninformed about politics because of the cost in time and energy |
sample bias |
the effect of having a sample that does not represent all segments of the population |
sampling error |
a number that indicates within what range the results of a poll are accurate |
tracking polls |
ongoing series of surveys that follow changes in public opinion over time |
two-step flow of information |
the process by which citizens take their political cues from more well-informed opinion leaders |
astroturf lobbying |
indirect lobbying efforts that manipulate or create public sentiment |
collective good |
a good or service that, by its very nature, cannot be denied to anyone who wants to consume it |
dealignment |
a trend among voters to identify themselves as independents rather than as members of a major party |
direct lobbying |
direct interaction with public officials for the purpose of influencing policy decisions |
economic interest groups |
groups that organize to influence government policy for the economic benefit of their members |
electioneering |
the process of getting a person elected to public office |
equal opportunity interest groups |
groups that organize to promote the civil and economic rights of underrepresented or disadvantaged groups |
expressive benefits |
selective incentives that derive from the opportunity to express values and beliefs and to be committed to a greater cause |
free rider problem |
the difficulty groups face in recruiting when potential members can gain the benefits of the group's actions whether they join or not |
governing |
activities directed toward controlling the distribution of political resources by providing executive and legislative leadership, enacting agendas, mobilizing support, and building coalitions |
grassroots lobbying |
indirect lobbying efforts that spring from widespread public concern |
indirect lobbying |
attempts to influence government policymakers by encouraging the general public to put pressure on them |
interest group |
an organization of individuals who share a common political goal and unite for the purpose of influencing government decisions |
issue advocacy ads |
advertisements that support issues or candidates without telling constituents how to vote |
lobbying |
interest group activities aimed at persuading policymakers to support the group's positions |
material benefits |
selective incentives in the form of tangible rewards |
nominating convention |
formal party gathering to choose candidates |
partisanship |
loyalty to a political cause or party |
party activists |
the “party faithful”; the rank-and-file members who actually carry out the party’s electioneering efforts |
party base |
members of a political party who consistently vote for that party's candidates |
party bosses |
party leaders, usually in an urban district, who exercised tight control over electioneering and patronage |
party eras |
extended periods of relative political stability in which one party tends to control both the presidency and Congress |
party identification |
voter affiliation with a political party |
party machines |
mass-based party systems in which parties provided services and resources to voters in exchange for votes |
party organization |
the official structure that conducts the political business of parties |
party platform |
list of policy positions a party endorses and pledges its elected officials to enact |
party primary |
nomination of party candidates by registered party members rather than party bosses |
party-in-government |
members of the party who have been elected to serve in government |
party-in-the-electorate |
ordinary citizens who identify with the party |
patronage |
system in which successful party candidates reward supporters with jobs or favors |
political action committee (PAC) |
the fundraising arm of an interest group |
political party |
a group of citizens united by ideology and seeking control of government in order to promote their ideas and policies |
public interest groups |
groups that organize to influence government to produce collective goods or services that benefit the general public |
realignment |
substantial and long-term shift in party allegiance by individuals and groups, usually resulting in a change in policy direction |
responsible party model |
party government when four conditions are met: clear choice of ideologies, candidates pledged to implement ideas, party held accountable by voters, and party control over members |
revolving door |
the tendency of public officials, journalists, and lobbyists to move between public and private sector (media, lobbying) jobs |
selective incentives |
benefits that are available only to group members as an inducement to get them to join |
social protest |
public activities designed to bring attention to political causes, usually generated by those without access to conventional means of expressing their views |
solidarity benefits |
selective incentives related to the interaction and bonding among group members |
closed primaries |
primary elections in which only registered party members may vote |
electoral mandate |
the perception that an election victory signals broad support for the winner’s proposed policies |
front-loading |
the process of scheduling presidential primaries early in the primary season |
front-runner |
the leading candidate and expected winner of a nomination or an election |
government matching funds |
money given by the federal government to qualified presidential candidates in the primary and general election campaigns |
hard money |
campaign funds donated directly to candidates; amounts are limited by federal election laws |
invisible primary |
early attempts to raise money, line up campaign consultants, generate media attention, and get commitments for support even before candidates announce they are running |
issue advocacy ads |
advertisements that support issues or candidates without telling constituents how to vote |
issue ownership |
the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area |
motor voter bill |
legislation allowing citizens to register to vote at the same time they apply for a driver’s license or other state benefit |
negative advertising |
campaign advertising that emphasizes the negative characteristics of opponents rather than one’s own strengths |
open primaries |
primary elections in which eligible voters do not need to be registered party members |
oppo research |
investigation of an opponent’s background for the purpose of exploiting weaknesses or undermining credibility |
party caucus |
local gathering of party members to choose convention delegates |
position issues |
issues on which the parties differ in their perspectives and proposed solutions |
presidential primary |
an election by which voters choose convention delegates committed to voting for a certain candidate |
prospective voting |
basing voting decisions on well-informed opinions and consideration of the future consequences of a given vote |
retrospective voting |
basing voting decisions on reactions to past performance; approving the status quo or signaling a desire for change |
soft money |
unregulated campaign contributions by individuals, groups, or parties that promote general election activities but do not directly support individual candidates |
swing voters |
the approximately one-third of the electorate who are undecided at the start of a campaign |
valence issues |
issues on which most voters and candidates share the same position |
voter mobilization |
a party’s efforts to inform potential voters about issues and candidates and persuade them to vote |
wedge issue |
a controversial issue that one party uses to split the voters in the other party |
blogs |
web logs, or online journals, that can cover any topic, including political analysis |
civic journalism |
a movement among journalists to be responsive to citizen input in determining what news stories to cover |
commercial bias |
the tendency of the media to make coverage and programming decisions based on what will attract a large audience and maximize profits |
feeding frenzy |
excessive press coverage of an embarrassing or scandalous subject |
framing |
process through which the media emphasize particular aspects of a news story, thereby influencing the public's perception of the story |
gatekeepers |
journalists and media elite who determine which news stories are covered and which are not |
horse-race journalism |
the media's focus on the competitive aspects of politics rather than on actual policy proposals and political decisions |
leaks |
confidential information secretly revealed to the press |
mass media |
means of conveying information to large public audiences cheaply and efficiently |
news management |
the efforts of a politician's staff to control news about the politician |
permanent campaign |
the idea that governing requires a continual effort to convince the public to sign onto the program, requiring a reliance on consultants and an emphasis on politics over policy |
political accountability |
the democratic principle that political leaders must answer to the public for their actions |
priming |
the way in which the media's emphasis on particular characteristics of people, events, or issues influences the public's perception of those people, events, or issues |
revolving door |
the tendency of public officials, journalists, and lobbyists to move between public and private sector (media, lobbying) jobs |
selective perception |
the phenomenon of filtering incoming information through personal values and interests |
sound bite |
a brief, snappy excerpt from a public figure's speech that is easy to repeat on the news |
spin |
an interpretation of a politician's words or actions, designed to present a favorable image |
balanced budget |
a budget in which expenditures equal revenues |
Bush Doctrine |
policy that supports preemptive attacks as a legitimate tactic in the U.S. war on state-sponsored terrorism |
capital gains tax |
a tax levied on the returns that people earn from capital investments, like the profits from the sale of stocks or a home |
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) |
the government organization that oversees foreign intelligence-gathering and related classified activities |
Cold War |
the half-century of competition and conflict after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union (and their allies) |
compellence |
using foreign policy strategies to persuade, or force, an actor to take a certain action |
consumption tax |
a plan in which people are taxed not on what they earn but on what they spend |
containment |
the U.S. Cold War policy of preventing the spread of communism |
crisis policy |
foreign policy, usually made quickly and secretly, that responds to an emergency threat |
deficits |
shortfalls in the budget due to the government spending more in a year than it takes in |
Department of Defense |
the executive department charged with managing the country’s military personnel, equipment, and operations |
Department of State |
the executive department charged with managing foreign affairs |
deregulation |
the elimination of regulations in order to improve economic efficiency |
director of national intelligence |
overseer and coordinator of the activities of the many agencies involved in the production and dissemination of intelligence information in the U.S. government, as well as the president’s main intelligence adviser |
distributive policies |
policies funded by the whole taxpayer base that address the needs of particular groups |
economic policy |
all the different strategies that government officials employ to solve economic problems |
entitlement program |
a federal program that guarantees benefits to qualified recipients |
Federal Reserve System |
independent commission that controls the money supply through a system of twelve federal banks |
fiscal policy |
economic policy in which government regulates the economy through its powers to tax and spend |
flat tax |
a tax system in which all people pay the same percentage of their income |
food stamps |
a program that provides assistance to the poor to help them buy food |
foreign policy |
a country’s official positions, practices, and procedures for dealing with actors outside its borders |
intelligence community |
the agencies and bureaus responsible for obtaining and interpreting information for the government |
interest rates |
the cost of borrowing money calculated as a percentage of the money borrowed |
intergovernmental organizations |
bodies, such as the United Nations, whose members are countries |
interventionism |
a foreign policy view that the United States should actively engage in the affairs of other nations in order to try to shape events in accordance with U.S. interests |
isolationism |
a foreign policy view that nations should stay out of international political alliances and activities, and focus on domestic matters |
Joint Chiefs of Staff |
the senior military officers from four branches of the U.S. armed forces |
means-tested programs |
social programs whose beneficiaries qualify by demonstrating need |
Medicaid |
a federally sponsored program that provides medical care to the poor |
monetary policy |
economic policy in which government regulates the economy by manipulating interest rates to control the money supply |
multinational corporations |
large companies that do business in multiple countries |
National Security Council (NSC) |
organization within the executive office of the president that provides foreign policy advice to the president |
nongovernmental organizations |
organizations comprising individuals or interest groups from around the world focused on a special issue |
progressive taxes |
taxes whose rates increase with income |
public policy |
a government plan of action to solve a problem |
redistributive policies |
policies that shift resources from the “haves” to the “have-nots” |
regressive taxes |
taxes that require poor people to pay a higher proportion of their income than do the well off |
regulatory policies |
policies designed to restrict or change the behavior of certain groups or individuals |
social insurance programs |
programs that offer benefits in exchange for contributions |
social policies |
distributive and redistributive policies that seek to improve the quality of citizens’ lives |
Social Security |
a social insurance program under which individuals make contributions during working years and collect benefits in retirement |
Social Security Act |
the New Deal Act that created AFDC, Social Security, and unemployment insurance |
social welfare policies |
public policies that seek to meet the basic needs of people who are unable to provide for themselves |
strategic policy |
foreign policy that lays out a country’s basic stance toward international actors or problems |
structural defense policy |
foreign policy dealing with defense spending, military bases, and weapons procurement |
subsidy |
financial incentive given by the government to corporations, individuals, or other governments |
surpluses |
the extra funds available because government revenues are greater than its expenditures |
Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) |
a welfare program of block grants to states that encourages recipients to work in exchange for time-limited benefits |
Value-added tax (VAT) |
a consumption tax levied at each stage of production, based on the valued added to the product at that stage |
Medicare |
the federal government’s health insurance program for the elderly and disabled |
Why Public Opinion Matters |
The government’s legitimacy rests on the idea that government exists to serve the interests of its citizens.
Politicians act as though they believe the public is keeping tabs on them. |
How do we form opinions on politics? |
Political Socialization: The process by which political preferences and allegiances are formed.
Environmental factors largely influence this process.
Agents of socialization: People or organizations which influence one’s outlook on politics.
Agents help cut down on “information costs” associated with political learning. |
Political Socialization |
The process by which political preferences and allegiances are formed.
Environmental factors largely influence this process. |
Agents of socialization |
People or organizations which influence one’s outlook on politics.
Agents help cut down on “information costs” associated with political learning. |
Where do we get our opinions from? |
Family
Schools and education
Groups“Spiral of Silence”: Those who hold minority opinions often suppress them.
Political and social events
Large scale events like war or social change can exert a large influence on a generation
Media
Provide information to audiences at fairly limited cost. |
Shortcuts and Opinion Leaders |
Most voters take shortcuts in order to process political information.
Two-step flow of information: When citizens take their political cues from informed opinion leaders.
Opinion leaders: like-minded people who we can turn to for information on politics.
Can be elites (news anchors, academics, politicians)
or non-elites (family members, neighbors, etc.) |
Two-step flow of information |
When citizens take their political cues from informed opinion leaders |
Opinion leaders |
like-minded people who we can turn to for information on politics.
elites (news anchors, academics, politicians)
non-elites (family members, neighbors, etc.) |
Ideology/Party Identification |
Studies from the 1960’s indicated that party I.D. was the most significant predictor of political opinion.
Recently, Ideology has become more important.
The two major parties have drifted towards more ideologically consistent positions.
Democrats tend to be liberal, Republicans tend to be conservative |
The most significant predictor of political opinion in the 1960's |
Party I.D. |
The most significant predictor of political opinion in recent times |
Ideology has become more important.
The two major parties have drifted towards more ideologically consistent positions.
Democrats tend to be liberal, Republicans tend to be conservative |
Self-Interest/Income Level |
Voters tend to form preferences based on economic self-interest.
Views about regulation of the economy and taxes often depend on class background |
Education |
People who are more educated tend to be more civically engaged and politically active.
People with higher levels of education are more likely to be informed about political processes. |
Age |
Political outlook is remarkably consistent with age.
People become more civically involved as they get older.
Participation rates rise as the electorate ages. |
Gender |
Gender Gap: The difference in ideology between men and women.
On average, women tend to be more liberal and men more conservative.
Women’s issues have recently become a focus of political campaigns.
Reproductive rights, Pay equality for women, etc. have become intensely debated issues. |
Gender Gap |
The difference in ideology between men and women.
On average, women tend to be more liberal and men more conservative. |
Race and Ethnicity |
Americans of different ethnic backgrounds show different levels of concern for specific issues.
Historically…
White voters have been split between the 2 major parties.
African Americans have been strong Democrats since the 1960s
Hispanics have leaned towards Democrats in recently elections, but remain a highly sought after demographic.
Other ethnic groups follow similar patterns as the electorate in general. |
Religion |
Religious faith plays an important role in the the electoral decisions of many people.
Historically speaking…
Evangelical and Mainline Protestant voters tend to lean Republican.
Catholic, Jewish, Black Protestant and Muslim voters tend to lean Democratic.
Shifts in vote by religious affiliation have been occurring in recent years as religious issues become more prominent in campaigns |
Geographic Region |
Different Types of Issues vary in their importance throughout the country.
Some scholars (Joel Lieske) divide the United States into different “regional subcultures” based on cultural background, issue preferences, ideology, etc. |
Sampling allows us to? |
... |
How to build a representative sample |
Should be between 1,000-2,000 people.
Sampling error: How accurate of a representation is the same chosen.
Calculated difference between the results of multiple random samples.
Margin of error: Smaller is better.
Larger samples have smaller error. |
Sampling error |
How accurate of a representation is the same chosen.
Calculated difference between the results of multiple random samples.
Margin of error: Smaller is better.
Larger samples have smaller error. |
Pollsters strive for? |
random samples
Random samples do not over-represent any particular group.
Allow the sample to be generalized to stand for the whole country. |
Random samples |
Random samples do not over-represent any particular group.
Allow the sample to be generalized to stand for the whole country. |
Eliminating sample bias |
Pollsters strive for random samples.
Strict rules for choosing a sample for any type of scientific or social science query.
Stratified sampling: Divides groups into subcategories (usually demographically or geographically) before randomly selecting.
Weighted samples: Occasionally certain groups are oversampled deliberately to examine a particular result. |
Stratified sampling |
Divides groups into subcategories (usually demographically or geographically) before randomly selecting |