Chapter 1 The Scientific Study of Politics 1 1 Political SCIENCE Political science isn t about running for election or what party you re in it s about the scientific study of political phenomenon 1 2 Approaching Politics Scientifically the search for causal explanations What do political scientists do and what makes them scientist o Develop and test theories o Theory tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interests Then we have to test our theory hypothesis o Hypothesis a theory based statement about a relationship that we expect to observe Every hypothesis has a null hypothesis it s about what would be observed if the Hypothesis testing done to evaluate collected evidence to see if it supports the variables displayed no relationship hypothesis or null hypothesis Testing the hypothesis is a core component of scientific knowledge because with every question and doubt that we test our theory it becomes more and more valid and the scientist gains confidence in the theory Skepticism a core part of scientific process keep retesting hypotheses Believe that there s still a test out there that will provide evident against hypothesis and make us lose confidence on theory Keep looking for that Lawyers and scientists have opposite approaches to evaluating evidence Lawyers looks for solely evidence to support their case and scientists test both possibilities trying to always consider new evidence and see if it conflicts with theory Scientists always favor the null hypothesis when they encounter new evidence because they are afraid of making claims that others will prove wrong in the future Once a theory is established and has become scientific knowledge researchers build on the foundation that the theory provides paradigm Thomas Kuhn o Shared assumptions and accepted theories about how the world works form a This paradigm is then accepted and leads to a series of technical questions that This state of research under an accepted paradigm is called normal science Paradigm shift when researchers develop new assumptions and theories that establish a new paradigm and changes normal science in the field o Scientists argue that political science as a field isn t mature enough to have a follow paradigm But scientific knowledge about politics has undergone an evolution In reference to research about public opinion in the US 1940 s study of public opinion through mass surveys infancy Before then scientists though people were influences heavily by political campaigns and ads Columbia University set up a study in 1944 election in Erie county which involved interviewing the same ppl 3 times throughout the election to see any changes But voters were pretty consistent in their views and vote intentions Many of them had made up their mind about who they would vote for long before campaigning had begun These results changed the way that people thought of public opinion and behavior in the US New theories where developed resembling a paradigm shift What does influence how people vote if campaigns don t 1 3 Thinking about the world in terms of variables and causal explanations Political scientists think of politics in terms of variables Turn concepts in variables o Variable label description of what the variable is o Variable Value denominations in which the variable occurs Like variable about person s age label age value years days hours o Value of the dependent variable depends on the value of the independent o Causal explanation is the answer to a question or theory Causal explanation we think that the state of the economy is causally related to the outcome of presidential elections because people hold the president responsible for the state of the economy Therefore if its doing well he might get a vote The theory of economic voting We then measure operationalize the independent variable economy in a number of ways Operationalize there are many different ways to measure our variables so there are also many different hypotheses that we can test Inflation unemployment real economic growth and many others Ex We choose to operationalize economic performance with a variable labeled one year real economic growth per capita Positive slope line moves upward relationship btwn variables Higher values of ind Variable tend to coincide with higher values of the dep Variable Negative slope or relationship moves downward Higher values of the ind Variable tend to coincide with lower values of the dependent like lower unemployment higher incumbent party votes o Operationalization determines the direction of the hypothesized relationship According to what measures we re using for each variable the relationship will vary Next Step after Operationalizing variables collect data from real world cases o Need to prove that our relationship observed with data is not random chance 1 4 Models of Politics Theoretical models when we think of phenomena that we want to better understand as dependent variables and develop theories about the ind Variables that influence them o Models are simplifications What are we trying to accomplish with this particular model 1 5 Rules of the road to scientific knowledge about politics Make your theories causal o Think in terms of causes and not just covariation move vary together Don t let Data alone drive your theories o Try to develop theories before examining the data on which you will perform your tests o There might be an outside factor creating the correlation between two variables Not causation So focus on the logic of the theory Not just data It might tell you something but you might have missed something critical within the theory building Consider only empirical evidence o Always be open to new evidence coming along that might decrease our confidence in a well established theory Avoid Normative Statements o Don t let normative views how world should be work itself into research Pursue both generality and Parsimony o Generality want our theories to be applied as a general class of phenomena think broad o Parsimonious simple more appealing o General application of theories More caveats this leads to less simple need to trade off on these two Chapter 2 The Art of Theory Building 2 1 Good Theories come from good theory building strategies A good theory is one that makes a contribution to scientific knowledge o Changes the way we see the political world o Making a good theory is hard and there s no clear cut answer to how do I do it but there are strategies to help it happen
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