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Midterm 1 Study Guide Chapters 1 3 edge tics based on theory and observation tage of observation compared with other methods cluding unit of interest variation both quantitative and qualitative judgments What is mutual agreement One of the ways human beings come to acquire knowl What is replication and verification As a way to develop knowledge one advan What is the definition of political science theory and evidence based study of poli What is descriptive inference Good description offers us a profile of interest in What is a description of descriptive inference Because 46 of the people surveyed What is causal inference The central goal of the use of the scientific method in the What is causal inference Unknown causal relation between two or more variables What is valid causal inference Requires both theory to explain and correlation to support the hypothesis theory that expects X to effect Y and evidence of correlation between X and Y to draw a valid causal inference requires both logical and empirical support causation cannot be observed it can only be inferred All causal inferences are uncertain are registered Democrats the lobbyist planned her campaign accordingly study of politics thing and why Causal theory Answers the questions What causes something and why False Covariation between X and Y is unnecessary for drawing a valid causal inference What is a theory A set of interconnected statements that identify what causes some Dependent Variable the something being caused the effect or outcome Independent variable the suspected cause What is the independent variable in the following theory Individuals with more formal education tend to have higher levels of political participation The amount of formal ed ucation an individual receives What is the definition of prediction Knowledge of X s value helps you determine y s What is the definition of correlation the values of two variables tend to move together What is the definition of causation change in the value of one concept tends to pro value duce change in the value of another concept the value of X changes correlation does not imply causation Causation X cause Y implies correlation values of X and Y tend to move together but When does probabilistic causation occur When the value of Y tends to change when When does deterministic causation occur cause X is always present when out come Y occurs outcome follows cause without exception and scientific laws are determinis tic When does probabilistic causal relation occur cause X usually present when out come Y occurs outcome occurs with some likelihood when cause is present and political sci ence seeks to identify probabilistic causal relationships Observation without theory is inadequate for causal inference Why Because of inaccu rate observations tendency to overgeneralize selective observation of phenomena illogical reasoning Fallacy of affirming the consequent Using evidence to prove a hypothesis is a logical fallacy because If A then B Hypothesis Observe B Evidence Conclude A is true Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent Criteria for Scientific Method Evidence Reason Analyze the real world think in terms of concepts not proper nouns propose testable causal relationships among concepts Must be possible to falsify the proposed relationship must know what evidence is needed to possibly falsify hypothesis served When does equifinalistic causation occur Which of the following problems helps illustrate why we need theory to draw valid Deduction Evidence that The fallacy of affirming the consequent states which of the following causal inferences Illogical reasoning supports a hypothesis does not prove the hypothesis Begin with assumptions then use math or formal logic to determine implications True A theory provides an explanation for what and why What emphasizes theorizing prior to examination of data Deduction is theory first then empirical testing What is induction Observation first then theory construction to explain what was ob What is the null hypothesis Anticipates that X does not co vary with Y What is the hypothesis A testable statement of relationship Examples of positive negative and non directional relationships Positive relationship the values of x y move in the same direction x y or x y Negative relationship the values of x y move in opposite directions x y or x y A non falsifiable statement is not a hypothesis because there is no data one could What is the definition of operationalization Measurement a set of instructions that Prior to producing an operational definition of a concept political scientists must What are the two components of error Systematic and random Steps of Theory Construction and Evaluation Identify a question or puzzle identify the dependent variable propose a causal explanation theory identify the independent variables state the hypothesis identify the null hypothesis operationalize the concepts collect data test the hypothesis re evaluate the theory given the the results describe how to measure the value of that concept produce to contradict it conceptually define it After one collects relevant data the next step to is to test the hypothesis Example Question Why do some people vote Causal Theory Education exposes people to more information Exposure to political information increases aware ness of problems Awareness increases likelihood that someone votes Hypothesis The more education a person has the more likely she is to vote Null Hypothesis The amount of education a person has is unrelated to the likelihood that she votes Operational Indicators conduct a survey and record Vote y 0 if the person did not vote in most recent election and 1 if the person did Education x the highest school grade the person completed Spatial Dimension or Cross Section Which of the following should one do prior to theorizing Identify a puzzle or question True The two dimensions that define our dataset are space spatial and time temporal Examples of spatial dimension citizens students governments countries Spatial variation are measured in one moment at a time or cross sectional A dataset that records What is a pooled cross section multiple united measured at one moment in time for each country in the world the amount of torture the government conducted in 2005 is a cross section Example Temporal Dimension or Time Series Examples of temporal dimension annual monthly weekly Temporal variation is a repeated measurement of one unit at different moments in time What is a


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FSU POS 3713 - Midterm 1

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