POS 3713 Final Exam Study Guide Chapter 1 What is causal inference What is the problem with attempting to prove causality o Causal inference creating a probable explanation use observed correlation between two concepts of interest to infer that one is causing the other causality o We can t actually observe X causing Y because we can t go back in time We can only observe x moving at the same time as y correlation What is the difference between deterministic and probabilistic theories o Deterministic theories Cause X is always present when X occurs Y will occur With certainty the effect will follow the cause o Probabilistic relationships Cause X is usually present When X occurs Y will probably occur With some probability the effect will follow the cause Science is probabilistic like weather 10 chance of rain What is the fallacy of affirming the consequent o To say that we are 100 correct If P then Q Observe Q and conclude P is true o Just because hypothesis stands up to empirical testing does not mean our theory is Simply means that we cannot yet falsify our theory What is a hypothesis What should it tell us What are the requirements for a correct hypothesis o Hypothesis a statement derived from a theory that indicates a cause and effect between two concepts o What should it tell us Positive or negative relationship move together or apart Should specify not only existence of a relationship but also the nature of the relationship What is X and how does it influence Y Is the relationship positive negative no relationship Up down linear curvilinear Should make strong causal claims o Requirements Must offer a cause X and Effect Y Specify the direction of the relationship Type of relationship curvilinear linear Unit and variation of interest Unit individuals Variation over time between units Must be falsifiable What is a null hypothesis Can we ever falsify a null hypothesis o Null hypothesis implicit in your hypothesis in the background The expected relationship if the theory is wrong Seeks to challenge our hypothesis by evaluating the null no relationship You must reject falsify the null hypothesis o Can we REALLY falsify the null Yes for now The theory would be safe for now POS 3713 Final Exam Study Guide However no number of set tests a theory must pass before we accept it Even hypotheses that are falsified do not require that we abandon a theory Chapter 2 What is temporal variation What is spatial variation Examples o Temporal Same units measured at different points in time Time series Ex Monthly By year o Spatial Differing units are measured at one point in time Cross sectional How at one point in time different units vary What are conceptual definitions How is this linked to measurement o The meanings we assign to terms concepts are a shared meaning o Concepts and measurement how we define a concept will affect how we measure the concept E g say we are concerned with how much someone knows about politics What do we mean by how much someone knows Politics awareness we could measure someone s political awareness by giving a quiz for example o Political awareness how attentive the individual is to the politics o Measured by civics knowledge current events Political sophistication a little harder to test But maybe something similar Political sophistication this implies some more ability to reason through political questions o Does the person think ideologically o You need more measures of this What is rational choice theory What is its primary assumption o This means that actors rank preferences over outcomes and your preferences are consistent You know what you prefer Your preferences are consistent choices are transitive Critiques Assuming that everyone is a rational player We assume that they are informed Chapter 3 What is a linear relationship Curvilinear Examples o Linear relationships Positive linear relationship Both variables increase and decrease at the same rate in the same direction Represented as a straight line going up on a graph Negative linear relationship POS 3713 Final Exam Study Guide As one variable increases the other variable decreases at the same Represented as a straight line going down on a graph rate o Curvilinear As one variable increases the other variable both increases and decreases over time nonmonotonic Represented as a curved line on a graph What are the threats to causality books says there are four o Non causal theory assess Without explaining how and why x moves or changes y no causality to Must have theory hypothesis Must be possible for x to cause y Change in x must precede observed change in y X y must co vary Causal mechanism linking x to y must be evident o Endogeneity reverse causation x y y x If x contributes to change in y then y must not contribute to change In x Ex States with more interest groups x tend to have more citizen s initiatives y However states with more citizen s initiatives y foster the formation of additional interest groups to sponsor countermeasures o No covariance between x and y If x causes y y must move whenever x changes Necessary but not sufficient for inferring causation Just because there is covariance it doesn t have to mean that there is causal inference You can have correlation covary but not causation There might be another factor influencing it o Spuriousness True causal mechanism overlooked Another variable not considered is moving both x and y Ex Democrats IV x are more likely than republicans to support a ban on private gun ownership DV y Being female however may explain both party identification democrat and gun ban support Unfortunately cannot control for all possible intervening variables However must attempt to control for as many competing explanations for Ex Higher coffee consumption associated with higher probability of DV Theoretically relevant developing lung cancer Coffee causes lung cancer Spurious connection coffee drinkers more likely to be smokers in 1960 s smokers more likely to develop lung cancer o If all of these threats are evaded then on road to good causal theory What is endogeneity Examples o Reverse causation y x o If X contributes to change in y then y must not contribute to change in X should be one sided What is a spurious relationship Examples POS 3713 Final Exam Study Guide o The true causal mechanism was overlooked o Other factor causing variation in both X and Y Chapter 4 What is randomization variable of interest o To maximize comparability o Want groups to be controlled on
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