POS3204 Midterm Exam 2 Study Guide Campaigns and Voting The voting dilemma Because voting has a cost one should only take the time to vote if they are likely to change the outcome of the election but The effect of one vote is VERY small In the 2012 US Presidential election 1 vote 0 00094 of the electorate Anthony Downs Modeled voting as an economic model Vote Benefits Probability Decisive Cost For Downs Costs almost always will exceed Benefits P Decisive Meaning and Types of heuristics Simplifying mechanisms used by people to make decisions Availability Heuristic More memorable events thought to be more common Affect Heuristic Evaluating candidates based on immediate emotional reaction Authority Heuristic Endorsement and support from others used Ideological Partisan Heuristics General ideological alignment used in place of careful consideration of the issues Meaning of correct voting Almost all voters use some kind of heuristic in making voting decisions Problems How can social scientists determine what a correct vote is Perhaps every vote is correct Satisfactory definition A correct vote is a choice that a voter would not change if provided with complete information Lau and Redlawsk Provide voters with information about hypothetical candidates and have them vote After voting additional information is provided and voters are asked if they would like to change their vote Findings 70 of voters stuck with their initial decision 30 of voters were willing to shift According to authors this represents the percentages of correct voting Implications Cognitive dissonance and the motivation to maintain initial beliefs In the real world politicians tend to hold partisan consistent beliefs Trustee vs delegate model of governance Two models of politician responsiveness to citizens Delegate Model The representative is to vote as the majority of their constituents prefer on every issue Trustee Model The people cede power to their representatives to vote as the representatives see fit Policy responsiveness in the branches of government Responsiveness greatest in Congress least in the Supreme Court Why Fit more with trustee model than with delegation model Politicians may have irrational fear of being voted out of office Interest group accountability Meaning of enfranchisement paradox The paradox that exists when we want an informed electorate and true democracy With so many uninformed voters a true democracy may not be the true will of the people Special concerns for female and minority candidates Female politicians widely viewed as Weaker on issues of national defense More responsible for their own household Indecisive Effects of appearance magnified Less likely to seek office than similarly qualified male counterparts Experimental evidence that the same candidate will do worse when depicted as a minority Subjects prefer a white candidate to a black candidate Subjects prefer a light skinned black candidate to a dark skinned black candidate Think the light skinned candidate is more intelligent Ideological Innocence Converse and the levels of ideological constraint Converse found that most people do not have a set belief system a configuration of ideas and attitudes which are bound together by some form of constraint or functional interdependence Conservative Pro 2nd Amendment Anti Abortion Lower overall taxes Liberal Support gun control Support abortion Support higher taxes on the wealthy Elite Polarization Morris Fiorina the public is not polarized but the positions of elites make them seem that they are Causes Ideological sorting Extreme primary electorates Gerrymandering Debate between Fiorina and Abramowitz Implications of Fiorina model The vast majority of public opinion is being ignored by the major parties A movement towards the center could result in new voters turning out and secure electoral majorities Abramowitz perspective Fiorina is wrong Americans have become more polarized along lines of Race Gender Geography Social issues Economic issues Ideological extremity Social issues have brought new cleavages Prior to 1960s cross partisan agreement on Abortion lack of marriage equality Leads to religion and party alignment Measurement Error of opinion No method of measuring public opinion discussed in this class will provide perfect measurement Error is inherent in every measurement technique Any deviation in recorded data from what we are trying to measure is measurement error Pluralistic Roots of Democracy The Five Moral Foundations Intrinsic psychological mechanisms that explain perceptions of right and wrong Care Harm A general preference for disliking pain and injury to others Evolutionary Benefits Healthy group mates will benefit the self in the long term Political Implications Those high in this dimension tend to oppose Stiff criminal penalties including the death penalty Tend to support Increase social welfare spending Fairness Cheating Belief in reciprocity human rights Evolutionary Benefits Reciprocal Altruism Political Implications Opposition to perceived violations of human rights Endorsement greater social welfare expenditures Loyalty Betrayal Belief in doing things for the greater good of one s group Evolutionary Benefits Humans as tribal creatures Political Implications Patriotism Participation in Civic Institutions Authority Subversion Support for leaders distaste for going against established norms of a society Evolutionary Benefits Tribal system requires consistent leadership to survive Political Implications Traditionalism Sanctity Degradation The tendency of a person to become disgusted in a particular situation Evolutionary Benefits Maintenance of a sanitary environment Political Implications Religiosity Social Conservatism Big Five Personality Traits Openness Open to new experiences rather than preferring the routine Conscientiousness Organized and disciplined rather than careless or impulsive Agreeableness Trusting and helpful rather than suspicious Extraversion Sociable and affectionate rather than somber and reserved Emotional Stability Neuroticism Calm secure rather than anxious and self pitying Differences between personality traits and moral foundations Personality are traits some people have them and others don t Moral Foundations Everyone has them but the desirability of each varies from person to person Definition and predictors of authoritarian personality Authoritarians adopt a state of mind or attitude characterized by belief in absolute obedience or