Thursday October 9 Influences of Public Opinion Partisanship and Motivated Reasoning Partisanship and Motivated Reasoning is very influential but how do we isolate it from voice choice is it an attitude or predisposition or does it change a lot Party Identification o The Michigan Model PID is central to the beliefs that people hold Not necessarily whether you are registered its how you feel about yourself your identity In general do you consider yourself to be a republican democrat an independent or what 7 point scale A stable predisposition socialized in adolescence by parental partisanship and social group identification Social groups that we are aware of union households evangelical Christian we can think of these social group IDs and parental stuff for when we are young and growing up most people don t sit down and decide objectively More democrats have changed into independents than stayed democrats civil rights movement going on at this time southern democrats changing at this time Regionalism as well within both parties The southern democrats are leaving the party and joining the independent side instead of republican Majority of independents lean democrat Democrats about 60 of people including those who say they are independent but slightly lean to one side or the other Has to do with turnout rates when turnout is high democrats usually tend to win Something can happen in the party and with group attachments can make a person change to a different party This concept of PID says that you are not likely to change past your teenage years Older group stayed democrats in the 60s and the young group in the 60s stayed democrats as well until the 90s young southerners in the 80 and 90s turned republicans Fiorina s Running Tally o PID is not an intense psychological attachment but rather a running tally of recent political assessment Clicker starting at 0 negative is democrat and positive is republican hear three positive things about democrats goes down to 3 a good republican thing goes up to 2 A person is hearing and storing things their whole life and making assessments that cause us to click on one side much more than the other This is arguing as I go through life I have the capacity to change If born in a democratic household if I move to a different environment like get a job or a new church or new friends all of a sudden exposed to republican info its going to need a bunch of clicks to get to the other side but it is possible People are somewhat stable and are able to change them Also tells us that some people who are exposed to politics that these people have grand sums closer to 0 These people are very sensitive to new info One environment to the next these people would change their mind People don t seem to be doing this that much tho o Evidence here is different than what the news media says o Don t believe what you always see o Culture War the displacement of the classic economic conflicts that animated 20th century politics in the advanced democracies by newly emergent moral and religious ones o Traditional left right economy scale o What this is saying is there is an alternative dimension relevant in American politics o There is a line that comes down through the middle of that scale and starts at the top with moral traditionalism people who tend to think there is a single moral system that governs us and that what is right and wrong is defined for us not by us The bottom side is called moral relativism the notion that says the opposite right and wrong is determined by the person if its right for you who am I to judge o This notion gives alternative views of religion more religious people are more morally traditional Party Polarization o The bottom is saying you don t need religion you can figure out what is right and wrong o Moral relativism thinks gov should not be intrusive at all people should be free to choose what they want o Four quadrants are important o Top left quadrant causes the most change in the US o Economic liberals and moral traditionalist after Roe v Wade these people moved from top left to bottom left catholics are saying woah where did my party go o When democrats go from top left to bottom right the catholics still in the top left go to top right social doctrine of catholic church is pretty liberal catholics in the US are more concerned with moral traditionalism as opposed to the economic side of things o Most of the public is not polarized on the top to bottom scale but are on the economic scale o Evidence suggests that this is largely a myth Issue activists misrepresent the views of voters An uncritical media chooses to promote conflicting points of view A confusion of positions with choices Most people lumped in the middle of the scale not thinking of extreme sides o Closely and Deeply Divided Opposite of normal distribution curve Outsides high and a steep curve down to the middle Theres no evidence for this though o Closely but not deeply divided Normal distribution curve except a little higher in the middle Suggests that the public is not polarized in opinions but are relatively evenly split This is how it is o Party is more important today than before Influence of party in voting and positions are much stronger today than in the past We have sorting Sorting hypothesis says those who affiliate with parties today are more able to be correct than previous periods We no longer have regionalism of old we don t have fractured parties o Modern parties are nationalized o Gerrymandering and primary elections have polarized our choices Gerrymandering draw district lines for voting they do it to make the party have a better vote turn out o Campaigns across the country seem to reflect the same ideological battles o Has to do with media being nationalized o Our choices are much more polarized today however bc in the 70s the democrats adopted a national system that relied on primaries o Primaries are extremely low turnout events o Typical republican is far more conservative than the average republican o They choose candidates who represent these extremes this polarizes our choices o Racial gerrymandering in urban areas we have districts who are surrounded by really white suburbs Drawing district lines that help support party Cant do this racially They said no more racial gerrymandering Made districts uncompetitive The way lines are drawn give us way different results Republican party put more money into majority minority Increased the number of African