01 20 2013 01 10 12 What is Public Opinion We are now so familiar with PO we see it everywhere Polls What tv shows are the most popular How frequently we do things like attend church People America most likes But the study of PO is much more than that How people learn about government Trust in political institutions Beliefs about participating Life goes on and on Early conceptions of PO are different from what we think about now Rousseau one of the first to use the term as we know it public opinion Customs and manners of all members of society not just elites Late 1700s French writers were using it interchangeably with common will public spirit and public conscience Soon came into common usage among those writing about government In early America to speakPO you were talking about educated affluent people in positions to communicate their views to the government The founders distributed the people when it came to politics Alexander Hamilton the voices of the people is said to be the voice of God and however generally this maxim has been quoted and believed it is not true in fact The people are turbulent and changing they seldom judge or determine right This is why we have institutions lik the electoral college and indirect elections of senators Eventually participation expanded debates ensued rights were extended and now we have universal frnachise and it became impossible to argue that PO could be ignored The big question then became that is public opinion exactly Before opinion polls you could counter the heed for popular preferences to matter by pointing tot eh fact that they could not beknown Public opinion is a powerful bold and unmesureable party The scientific poll gave clarity and reliability to mass opinion Gallup argued that through these pols the will of the people can be reflected It was now the moral responsibility of elected offiicals to convert the public will into public policy Polls were not without critics howerever many people argued that the one person one vote Definition inherent in polls is exactly what public opinon was not Not just a nose count of citizens Interactions and communctions of function groups that roil through society Others thought the public was not smart enough to play the role Gallup suggesting Some thought that representatives do not even need to pay attention No matter the case it is accepted that an essential element of democracy is the creation of institutions and practices that allows for meaningful input into the governing process Democratic governance works best when officials respond to popular will So again what is PO Hundreds of definitions Famously defined as those opinions held by private persons which govenrments finds it prudent to heed but what if the government doesn t find it prudent to heed that particular opinion The textbook uses simply the sum or aggregation of private opinion on ant particular issue or set of issues This is a common Pollls as a science Polls are not just confined to elections results even though we experience the horse races of national eletions Polls routinely measure public preferences on many policy issues and monitor the public pulse This ranges from party identification Polls can influence an election itself Poor showing in pre elections polls makes fundraising more difficults Strong poling legitimizes candidates and brings media attention The popularity of the president is watched virtually daily and is often the most interesting way to congressional members the media an the policital community at large Polls matter However few people have even a basic understanding of how polling works In 2005 Gallup asked a national sample whether 1 500 or 2 000 people can accurately reflect views of the nations population Only 30 said It could yield accurate result and 68 said it was impossible Interestingly although the public doesn t understand polls most sya that polls are useful for elected officials in Washingyon to understand how the public feel about important issues Public opinon polls are based on samples When someone reports that 50 of Americans approve of the way the president is doing his job it is obvious they didn t go out and interview over 200 million adults Instead sample is taken Interviewing everyone is way too expensive 2010 census cost 11 8 Population is unit which we want information on In most political surveys it is usually People 18 Registered voters Those who vote in the next election These are three very diffiferent groups The sample is part of the population that was selected for analysis Sample size decrease sample error increase Sample accurately mirriors the population it is representative The only method by which representative sample can be scientifically drawn is through randomness In a simple random sample each unit of the population has exactly the same chace of being drawn as any other unit Sometimes random selection is simple Confidence level Sampling error the range that is wrong Multiple stimuli problem in questions Question order effect influence member answers Middle position Not always black or white Response acquiescence less educated Tend to agree Open ended questions say what s on your mind Social desirability say what society supports Political Socialization Just like anything else in life we learn about politics over time and a good amount of this learning occur before we are even old enough to vote Primacy Principle what someone learns as a child affects their political life late ron Childhood Children are taught form a young age to accept the political order Some suggest that the survival of our political system is dependant on the success of society producing children who have positive feeligs about it This involves encouraging children to identifty with the political system and promoting a sense of loyalty Children both know and identify with the symbol of the American political community One of the most important lessons children learn early on is sense of national identity Preschool children see authority figures of the states as benevolent figures Over 90 are able to identify a policeman and over 75 say things like they help lost children and catch bad guys When shown different flags 60 chose the American flag as their favorite and other 19 chose the Liberian flag which looks like US flag AS they grow child understanding of politics starts to grow but almost entirelt in terms of feelings and affect Thet are aware of the existence of the president and can