Exam One Antecedent Variable p 2 INDEX 2 POS3713 UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH FINAL EXAM STUDY GUIDE EXAM 1 CONTENT Antecedent Variable A variable that happens before another variable consequence in the same time frame Although the two may not be related both occurred in the same span of time o Ex a ball hit the window and the old man had a heart attack Bivariate involving just two variables Causation changes in X result in changes in Y o This would require correlation o Correlation Causation Correlation X and Y move together o Summarizes the direction and strength of the linear relationship between one or more independent variables Confounding Variable s a variable that is correlated with both the independent and dependent variables and that somehow alter the relationship between the two Controlling for Z research design that eliminates alternate explanations for an observed relationship between X and Y Covariation when two variables vary together Cross Sectional Studies many units sampled over a single time period hold constant other factors Data A collection of variable values for at least two observations Dependent Variable Y a variable for which at least some of the variation is theorized to be caused by one or more independent variables o Phenomenon the model seeks to explain o Sometimes called the outcome variable Deterministic relationship where X always leads to Y o When X occurs Y will occur with certainty o Ex Force Mass Acceleration Probabilistic X usually leads to Y Tends to occur o When X occurs Y will tend to occur but not with certainty Dimensions of Variation Elements of a Good Theory Is your theory causal o Does your theory offer an answer to an interesting research question o o Can you test your theory on data that you have not yet observed o How general is your theory o How parsimonious simple is your theory o How new is your theory o How nonobvious is your theory Empirical based on real world observations Endogeneity Problem occurs when the IV is correlated with the error term in a regression model Implies that the regression coefficient in an Ordinary Least Squares OLS regression is biased o o May still be consistent Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent even though we have evidence and reason in our favor we can simply only say we have yet to falsify our theory Formal Theory rational choice researchers use this approach to develop answers to questions about how people make strategic decisions If politics is a game how do we explain the way that people play it o o Starts out with a fairly basic set of assumptions about human behavior and then uses game theory and other mathematical tools to build models of phenomena of interest o Assume that all individuals are rational utility maximizers 3 POS3713 o Use an expected utility approach Hurdles of Establishing Causality represent an effort to answer the how and why questions about causal relationships Hurdles listed in detail further in study guide Hypotheses a testable implication of the theory o More explicit than a theory in terms of the expected relationship between a measure of the IV and Independent Variable X a variable that is theorized to cause a variation in the dependent variable a measure of the DV o We are moving from the theoretical to the empirical level o Phenomena thought to cause the dependent variable o Ex people with more money tend to vote for Republicans IV Money DV Vote Choice o Ex the rich men and religious tend to vote for Republicans IV Wealth Gender Religiosity DV Vote Choice Intervening Variables Z a variable that is correlated with both the IV and DV and that somehow alters the relationship between these two variables Multivariate involving more than two variables Negative Relationship higher value of X lower value of Y Normative how the world ought to be Null Hypothesis theory based what would occur if X and Y had no relationship o o If our theory is wrong Implicit in all hypotheses o Operational Definitions Operationalization the process of defining a concept to make it measurable in the form of a variable Validity how well does the operational definition match the theoretical definition Reliability how consistent will the process by which we measure these concepts be Measurement Error there is always a risk random error and systematic error Paradigm shared set of assumptions accepted theories in a particular field Normal Science Parsimony simple succinct Positive Relationship increase in X increase in Y Rational Utility Maximizers an assumption about human behavior that stipulates that individuals attempt to maximize their self interest o Formal theorists put everything in terms of utility o Utility from individual from action sum of benefits sum of costs Scientific Method Identify a Question Puzzle Identify the Dependent and Independent Variables o o o Propose a Causal Theory o Test the Hypothesis o Operationalize the Variables o Test the Hypothesis o Evaluate the Theory Without it we can only describe political phenomena Allows for causal inferences how and why Spatial Dimension identifies the physical units that we want to measure o A lot of variability 4 POS3713 o Ex if we are looking a survey data the spatial unit will be the individual people who answered the survey If we are looking at the data on US state governments the typical spatial unit will be the 50 states Spurious Relationship not what it appears to be false o Fourth hurdle of causality asks if we have controlled for all confounding variables that might make the association between X and Y spurious Time Dimension the point points in time at which a variable is measured Time Series Study a measure for which the spatial dimension is the same for all cases and the cases represents multiple time units Units of Analysis the who or the what that you are analyzing for this study o Can be an individual student a group or even en entire program Utility a calculation equal to the sum of all benefits minus the sum of all costs from that action Variable definable quality can take 2 or more values Duverger s Law a principle which asserts that a majority voting election system naturally leads to a two o Ex voter turnout party system Hostelling s Law in many markets it is rational for producers to make their products as similar as possible HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT WE KNOW EPISTEMOLOGY what we know and how we know it Traditionally we know through o Recognized authorities precedent intuition common sense observation o Ex
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