Midterm Chapter 1 1 Scientific Method I II III IV V VI Question puzzle Research Theory or Model A theory is a set of logically connected statements that explain something explains why or how i ii A theory is a simplification of how the world works A theory can never be proven Implications hypotheses an empirically testable statement that is implied by a theory Observe World test hypotheses Evaluation Repeat starting at 2 if necessary 2 What is science the study of something using the scientific method so that we can make correct inferences conclusions I Attributes of science Tentative Strives for objectivity Public and replicable Science is a quest for knowledge that relies on criticism 3 Why do theories need to be falsifiable I The thing that distinguishes science from non science is that scientific statements must be falsifiable There must be some imaginable observation that could refute our theory All scientific statements must be potentially testable Does not mean our theories will ever be falsified just that there is a possibility that they could be Non Falsifiable statements 1 Tautologies statements that is true by definition a Ex strong states are able to implement policies unless we can think of a way of identifying a strong state without reference to its ability to implement policies then this statement cannot be falsified and is therefore not scientific i ii iii i ii iii iv 4 Why should you care about logic two reasons I II I If you cannot distinguish between a valid and invalid argument then it is easy for someone to manipulate you This introduction to logic tells us quite a lot about the way scientists should test their theories 5 Define an Argument and the parts of an argument Argument a set of logically connected statements typically in the form of a set of premises and a conclusion i Premise is a statement that is presumed to be true within the context of the argument leading to a conclusion ii Conclusion claim that is thought to be supported by the premises 6 What are the two types of arguments I II Valid when accepting the premises compels us to accept its conclusion Invalid when accepting the premises we are free to accept or reject its conclusions 7 What is categorical syllogism a kind of logical argument in which a conclusion is inferred from a major and minor premise I Major premise a conditional statement such as if P then Q i ii iii the if is call the antecedent the then is call the consequent ex if a county is wealthy then it is a democracy I Minor premise a claim about either the antecedent or the consequent of the major premise Conclusion something that is thought to follow the premises 8 What are the fours types of conditional arguments that can be represented by a syllogism Arguments that affirm the antecedent Arguments that deny the antecedent Arguments that affirm the consequent Arguments that deny the consequent 9 What is a causal theory what causes something and why Can be developed via induction or deduction Induction begin by observing the world and looking for generalized patterns Deduction begins with abstract theory and the assumptions needed for a given theory to make sense 10 What is a theory define the variables a theory is simply a set of interconnect statements that ID what causes something and why Dependent variable the something being causes the effect or outcome Independent variable the suspected causes 11 Define hypothesis and Null hypothesis Hypothesis relationship we expect to observe it is simply a statement derived from theory that indicates a cause and effect between two concepts Positive relationships x y move together x y Negative relationships x y move apart x y i ii II A testable proposition i We want strong and explicit propositions linked to other ii propositions Should specify not only existence of a relationship but also the nature of the relationship positive negative linear curvilinear III Null hypothesis implicit in your hypothesis II I II III IV I II III I II I i ii iii Expected relationship if theory is wrong Seek to challenge our hypothesis by evaluating the null To find support for your hypothesis you must reject the null hypothesis falsify it 12 What are the requirements for a hypothesis I Must offer a cause x and effect y II Must specify direction of the relationship III Must specify type of relationship linear etc IV Must specify unit and variation of interest i ii Unit individuals Variation over time Between units V Must be falsifiable 13 What does operationalizing our concepts in model building explain I operationalizing a process or transforming abstract theoretical definition to measurable empirical definition II Must have good theoretical abstract definition first i Abstract definitions are neither true nor false they are explicit and used for purpose of clearly stating your theory Operational definitions explains what the concept will look like and how it is to be tapped or measured in the empirical world 14 Operational definitions validity reliability error I Must be wary of how well the abstract definition lines up with our operational definition of a concept Validity Should be concerned with the consistency of the method or process by which we operationalize abstract concepts reliability III Must always be aware of error random systematic III II i ii Random error may originate with human mistakes such as inputting data incorrectly Systematic error such as when we choose a method of operationalization for a variable that does not map onto the theoretical concept we intended Example Puzzle why do some individuals turnout to vote while others do not Causal theory Individuals that obtain more education are exposed to more political and social issues Exposure to issues leads to great awareness of problems society and government must resolve This awareness makes it more likely that an individual will turnout to vote Hypothesis in comparing individuals those with more education are more likely to vote than those with less education Null hypothesis in comparing individuals those with more education are more likely to vote than those with less education Operationalize measure the variables Turnout to vote y let 1 denote that an individual voted in a given election and 0 denote that an individual did not vote Education x the total number of years that an individual has been in school What do we expect Chapter 2 1 What must be done before building a theory I II Observe or identify a puzzle or question The goal
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