Political Science 1041 01 Spring 2014 Some preparation suggestions for Exam 3 Monday April 28 5 30 7 30 p m Linkage Institutions The third exam will be non cumulative and in the same general format as the first two exams It will consist of 67 or so multiple choice questions You will need to be familiar with both the classroom material that we will have covered since the second exam and chapters 10 11 12 13 and 14 in Kernell et al s The Logic of American Politics Some advice on reviewing terms concepts and topics In many instances looking up a one sentence definition or explanation does not prepare you to deal effectively with an exam question You should have an understanding of why a term concept or topic is important within the context of the chapter and or classroom presentation what I would refer to as a working definition There are no quick substitutes for reading and reviewing the chapters and reviewing a good complete set of class notes The textbook website http college cqpress com sites logic6e Home aspx contains on line quizzes that should provide you with some indication of your familiarity with the chapters Some important terms concepts and topics from classroom presentations remember that you are also responsible for the chapters from The Logic Public Opinion Public opinion Collective attitudes of the citizens o Those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed o Confounding problems There are multiple publics Opinion is unstable and constantly shifting Political ignorance is high Politian s will often avoid controversial issues when public opinion is Measuring public opinion polls and scientific polling fluctuating so much toll for systematically investigating the opinions of o Scientific polling ordinary people o Sampling theory is representative of a population sample of individuals selected by chance from a population o Sample accuracy o Sampling error or margin of error etc Margin of division the sample will how well does it represent fall into 95 of the time Ex of people surveyed who agree 20 with a MOE of 3 meaning 95 of the time when this sample is taken the results will be between 17 23 Sample size inversely related to margin of error Larger the sample size smaller margin of error Sampling sizes should be in the 1 200 1 500 range o Random sample and non random sample consider the Literary Digest example o SLOP surveys Pure random sample is always best Polls where people choose whether or not to answer choosing to stop to answer a survey while walking through the mall Not randomly selected not a good way to measure opinions o Shapes of public opinion for example normal skewed and bimodal Bell shaped normal centered on the most frequent response Bimodal two opinions that occur about as often as the other Skewed most frequent response lies off to one side less variations in response than the bell shaped curve Problems and limitations with polls o Non attitudes doorstep opinions made up opinions when people are put o Illusion of Saliency o Leading questions push polling illusion things from polls are important Ex welfare vs assistance to the poor Ginsberg s concerns with polling o Polling has transformed public opinion o Public opinion is no longer the efforts of concerned individuals o Presentation through attitudes o Constrained responses rather than spontaneous assertions Fiorina s Culture War arguments including close elections and deeply divided electorate close elections but not deeply divided electorate etc o Americans may be closely divided on issues of morality religions and sexuality but we are not deeply divided most are moderates o Media focuses on those w extreme opinions a bad representation of most Americans on the spot Electoral Participation attitudes etc Explaining voter turnout influences on turnout socio demographics psychological o Socio demographics will affect whether one votes or not Higher incomes older age higher education homeownership mobility marriage female gender all increases likelihood of voter turnout Rationality of turning out and the rational choice perspective on turnout If benefits b costs c Then we will vote Internal efficacy External efficacy belief in that they have the ability to understand politics belief they have a say in the government Why has U S turnout declined if it has The puzzle of participation and its explanation s o Education has gone up voting hindrances have gone down and yet voting has still decline decline in turnout is the product of a change in campaigning strategies as a result of the so called new media potential voter is now a passive participant o Voter participation should be taken on account of populations eligible voters not just those registered o High voting numbers in 2008 Comparative U S turnout and reasons why U S turnout is low relative to that of other democracies Campaigns and Elections emphasis on presidential o Differences in legal environment registration differences differences in political party environment more elections are on weekdays Voter fatigue Nomination stage 1st stage of the presidential elections o Pre primary phase invisible primary not really so invisible o Delegate selection phase primary phase o National party conventions officially confirm nominee General election stage o Presidential candidate must win a majority of electoral votes o Strategic focus is on high population states more electoral votes o 51 separate elections Primary election Election to decide what party s candidates will be the nominees for Caucus Closed meeting of political legislative group to choose candidates or make general elections decisions on policy issues o Closed only voters previously registered with a party can vote in that party s o Semi closed primary fewer participants unaffiliated with a party are permitted to vote as well registered voters can only vote for their party however those o Open voters can vote for whichever party they choose o Proportional with a threshold democrats select delegates through proportional allocation w 15 threshold o Winner take all Republican strategy o Front loaded to set the tone for the race When states hold their primaries earlier than the rest of the nation General candidate strategies in the nomination stage o Start early raise funds o Lower expectations around yourself and raise them for your opponent o Project a positive image free paid mass media advertising Social psychological model of vote choice o Party
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