POS 3713 Study Guide for Test 1 Chapters 1 3 Epistemology The study of what we know and how we know it Traditionally we know through Intuition You just know to breath 1 Recognized authority Because I went to Harvard 2 3 Precedent I ve read it before 4 Common sense If I said I would give you 50 000 if you received an A in my class more people would strive for an A 5 Observation A goal of scientific research is Inference or to infer Descriptive Inference You fly to Atlanta on a business trip You walk into a restaurant and the waitress was acting rude to you You come home and ell your friend all waitresses are rude in Atlanta Casual Inference Do you have insurance Do you like the new healthcare law Did that cause you to gain insurance Problem Does coffee cause cancer Do you drink coffee Do you have cancer What if they smoke Deterministic relationships when x occurs y happens with certainty Example If you throw a pencil up in the air it will come back down Probabilistic or Stochastic relationships when x occurs y usually happens without certainty Example When thunder happens you will see lighting Previous Research and Theories A theory is a tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interest Conceptual Definitions Independent variable the suspected cause The independent variable s cause the dependent variable and come before Dependent variable the thing being caused or the outcome The dependent variable is caused by or depends on the influence of an outside factor The outcome variable X y does not y x Example People with more money vote for Republicans Independent variable money Dependent variable vote choice Example Countries are more likely to attack their neighbors than countries that are not Independent variable If they are neighbors Dependent variable Whether or not they were attacked Casual theory should offer additional implications X independent variable and y dependent variable Causation Changes in one variable lead to a change in another Correlation Two variables seem to move together CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION We can see x and y move together correlation We cannot observe causation We don t see a registered democrat vote for a democrat If x causes y then x and y are correlated Fallacy of affirming the consequent We have evidence and reason in our favor we have yet to falsify our theory If A is true than B is true If you re in Tallahassee you are in Florida If you re in Florida you don t have to be in Tallahassee Cross sectional measure a measure for which the time dimension is the same for all cases and the cases represent multiple spatial times Example See pg 28 Time series measure a measure for which the spatial dimension is the same for all cases and the cases represent multiple time units Example See pg 27 Puzzle We expect two cases to have similar outcomes but they end up not A puzzle requires some knowledge of events Puzzles make us look for non obvious causes Example Why did a President lose If it was a third party candidate that would be too obvious Identify a question or puzzle Identify the dependent and independent variables Puzzle method 1 2 3 Propose a casual theory 4 State the hypothesis 5 Operationalize the variables 6 Test the hypothesis 7 Evaluate the original theory Means of evaluating our theories 1 Strengthening theories Who are the actors And what do they want to achieve What are the important institutions Institutions constrain key actors and help form the actor s preferences Institutions provide different incentives for the actors Example For the most part company s main goal is profit However if the government offers a tax break for this company if they start to help the environment then the company could change its mind on their main goal And even though they could lose money because of their new dedication on helping the environment they could gain new customers and save money due to the tax break 2 Make your nouns and verbs more general President Obama wants to be reelected Presidents want to be reelected Politicians want to be reelected Do not overgeneralize Theory and Previous research should inform you on how general you can be 3 Falsifiable When x causes y or does not cause y 4 Parsimony synonym for simple Rational Choice Theory You know what you prefer and your preferences are consistent Example Tacos Pizza Pasta You will always choose Pasta to Tacos Assumptions Make sure your assumptions are explicit They are inherently simplified and general Example It is generally true that students want to do better in class than not Example Generally Presidents serve two terms It is not ALWAYS true Operationalize Another word for measurement When a variable moves from the concept level in a theory to the real world measure for a hypothesis test it has been operationalized Validity How well does the operational definition match the theoretical definition A valid measure Reliability how consistent will the process by which we measure these concepts be Always risk of measurement error Random or systematic Hypothesis The relationship we expect to observe The hypothesis is a testable statement derived from theory which indicates a cause effect between two concepts Positive relationship x y move together Negative relationship x y move apart Our hypothesis needs to Make strong and explicit propositions Specify the nature of that relationship Positive Negative Linear Curvilinear The five requirements for a hypothesis 1 Must offer a cause x and an effect y 2 Must specify the direction of that relationship Positive or Negative 3 Must specify the type of relationship Linear or Curvilinear 4 Must specify units of variation of interest Units individuals or aggregates Variation Over time Between units 5 Must be falsifiable The null hypothesis A theory based statement about what we would observe if there were no relationship between an independent variable and the dependent variable Bivariate relationship Just involving two variables Almost all of our theories about social and political phenomena are bivariate Endogenous Relationships Reverse causation x y and y x We assume x causes y and y does not cause x Remember why they are called independent variables Endogeneity Example US Soviet Military build up X US spending Y USSR spending The US increases their military spending causes Soviet Union to increase their military spending X Y If the Soviet Union increases their military spending so will the US Y X Spurious Relationships Not what they
View Full Document
Unlocking...