STUDY GUIDE FOR 1ST MIDTERM EXAM Ordered by chapter 1 Causal Explanation The causal explanation behind a theory is the answer to the question why do you think that this independent variable is causally related to this dependent variable 2 Variable Concepts of interest We derive our hypotheses from the measurements of variables 3 Empirical Simply explained as based on observations of the real world 4 Paradigm Scientific fields go through cycles of accumulating knowledge based on sets of shared assumptions and commonly accepted theories about the way that the world works Together these shared assumptions and accepted theories form what we call a paradigm 5 Variable Values The denominations in which the variable occurs Ex If the value label is Age the variable values would be years days or even hours 6 Independent Variable What you think will affect the dependent variable changes in the value of the independent variable causes change in the value of the dependent variable The variable that s doing the causing 7 Dependent Variable The value of the dependent variable depends on the value of the independent variable The variable being affected 8 Operationalize The measuring of variables measure and operationalize are practically synonymous 9 Hypothesis A theory based statement about a relationship that we expect to observe interest 10 Null Hypothesis A theory based statement but it is about what we would expect to observe if our theory was incorrect 11 Theory A tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of 12 Operational Definition specifies procedures to measure concept empirically allows for bridge between theoretical conceptual and empirical levels 13 Hypothesis Testing A process in which scientists evaluate systematically collected evidence to make a judgment of whether the evidence favors their hypothesis or favors the corresponding null hypothesis If a hypothesis survives a series of rigorous tests scientists start to gain confidence in that hypothesis rather than in the null hypothesis and thus they also gain confidence in the theory from which they generated their hypothesis a The Road To Scientific Knowledge Causal Theory Hypothesis Empirical Test Evaluation of Hyp Evaluation of Causal Theory Scientific Knowledge 14 Theoretical Model When we think about the phenomena that we want to better understand as dependent variables and develop theories about the independent variables that causually influence them we are constructing theoretical models Models are simplifications 15 Unit of Analysis The particular subjects between analyzed 16 Normative Statements Statements about how the world ought to be 17 Covariation Covariation is used to describe a situation in which two variables vary together or covary 18 Conceptual Definition An individual s perception of the discrepancy between his her expectations and his her capabilities 19 Parsimonious The more simple or parsimonious a theory is the more appealing it becomes The more caveats that we add to a theory the less parsimonious it becomes 20 Positive Relationship There is a positive relationship between two variables when higher values on one variable tend to occur with higher values on the other 21 Negative Relationship There is a negative relationship between two variables when higher values on one variable tend to occur with lower values on the other 22 Nonlinear Explanation When there is no relationship between the independent and dependent variable When a graph showing the relationship can be approximated by a curve that is not straight 23 Correlation A closely related term is correlation 24 Deductive Theory Building Start with a theory and then observe the world to test the theory If the observation is consistent with the theory accept it If the observation is inconsistent reject it 25 Inductive Theory Building Start with the observation and then develop a theory explaining what was observed 26 Drop the Proper Nouns Move from a specific case to a general theory Bush President 9 11 International Crisis Develop the theory before observing data 27 Relationship I E Covariation relation association 28 Criteria for a good theory A theory that after going through a rigorous evaluations process makes a contribution to scientific knowledge one that changes the way that we think about some aspect of the political world We want our theories to be causal empirical nonnormative general and parsimonious 29 Time Dimension Identifies the point or points in time at which we would like to measure our variable Depending on what we are measuring typical time increments for political science data are annual quarterly monthly or weekly measures 30 Spatial Dimension Identifies the units that we want to measure a lot of variability If we are looking at survey data the spatial unit will be the individual people who answered the survey respondents 31 Time Series Measure Variation The spatial dimension is the same for all cases and the dependent variable is measured at multiple points in time 32 Cross Sectional Measure The time dimension is the same for all cases and the dependent variable is measured for multiple spatial untis 33 Level of Aggregation As a final way to use research of others to generate new theories we suggest considering how a theory might work at varying levels of aggregation In political science research the lowest level of aggregation is usually at the level of individual people in studies of public opinion 34 Formal Theory Rational Choice The formal theory approach to social science phenomena starts out with a fairly basic set of assumptions about human behavior and then uses game theory and other mathematical tools to build models of phenomena of interest 35 Rational Choice Theory The most common type of formal theory in political science In R C theory a core assumption is that individuals are rational utility maximizers taking into account all consequences of all possible actions The mathematical equation for the R C theory verbally states that the utility for the individual is the sum of the benefits from the action minus the costs of that particular action a Core Assumptions Given a choice among alternatives an individual will choose the alternative yielding the greatest utility i Complete Information 36 Complete Information Another potentially troubling aspect of the rational actor utility maximizing assumption that you may have thought of is the assumption of complete information In other words what if we don t
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