POS3713 Understanding Political Science Research Prof John B Ryan Midterm 1 January 31 2012 Study Guide Epistemology Concerned with the nature and limitations of knowledge o Focuses on the analytical nature of knowledge as it relates to truths belief systems and justifications What do we know and how do we know it o Usually we know through Recognized authorities Precedent We see something happen Intuition Assumption Common Sense Observation Inference the process of arriving at some conclusion that though it is not logically derivable from the assumed premises possesses some degree of probability relative to the premises How we make inferences o We cannot observe causation We don t see x make y happen o We observe correlation We see x and y move together o We come up with a causal story to explain why the correlation takes place X and y occur together because x causes y And the story is the why and how x causes y Inferring a relationship between two subjects require quantitative and qualitative judgments o You believe x caused y because You noticed that x occurs right before y occurs Causal or coincidence What if z causes x and y Descriptive and Causal inferences Based on what I m seeing I believe this to be true Deterministic Relationships for everything that happens there are conditions such that given them nothing else could happen Cause x always leads to effect y When x occurs y will also occur with certainty o E g Force Mass Acceleration o Example of a deterministic relationship Probabilistic or Stochastic Relationships Probabilistic relationships o Cause x usually leads to effect y o When x occurs Y will tend to occur but not with certainty Stochastic random Limitations in knowledge Imperfect knowledge in a deterministic relationship o Ex When war occurs deaths will normally occur but you cannot be 100 sure of this Cold War Ex More schooling more money this may not always be the case Previous Research and Theories Science is the accumulation of knowledge Can help us without understanding Build off on what came before Standard measures to replicate Induction vs Deduction Induction is a kind of reasoning that constructs or evaluates propositions that are abstractions of observations of individual instances of members of the same class induction empirics theory o build on observations Induction operates in two ways o Confirming conjecture o Falsifying conjecture Ex All crows are black Based on observations of the natural world Each time a new crow is observed and found to be black the conjecture is increasingly confirmed However if a crow is found to be not black the conjecture is falsified deduction is the deriving of a conclusion by reasoning specifically inference in which the conclusion about particulars follows necessarily from general or universal premises o Reasoning from general to specific deduction theory empirics assumption theory o build on assumptions Conceptual Definitions Conceptual definitions o the meanings we assign to terms o concepts are a shared understanding o are only meaningful if others understand them Do not confuse concepts with reality o concepts are our perception of things with common characteristics simply concepts are tools used to describe the world Concepts and measurements o it is also worth noting that how we define a concept will affect how we o for example say we are concerned with how much someone knows about What do we mean by how much someone knows measure the concept politics o political awareness o political sophistication Talking about the abstract and theoretical Independent and Dependent Variable Dependent variable effect o The something being the effect or the outcome o y o ex did they go to war Independent variable the cause o The suspected cause o x o Comes before or are independent of the outcome thy influence o ex the economy was good they were neighbors Examples o People with more money vote Republicans Independent Variable Money dependent variable vote choice o The rich men and the religious vote for Republicans Independent variables wealth gender religiosity Dependent variable Vote Choice Correlation and Causation Correlation o 2 variables seem to move together correlation does not equal causation Correlation is necessary but not sufficient for inferring causation The Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent Involves making the invalid consequent is true then the antecedent must also be true Example o If it s raining then the streets are wet o The streets are wet o Therefore it s raining If p the q q therefore p Time Series vs Cross Sectional identify the time dimension o at what points in time are we measuring our variables annual monthly weekly identify the spatial dimension o what are the units we want to measure survey respondents state governments Nations Dimensions and variation space o is the variation that we are interested in taking place over time or across same units measured at different points in time o temporal variation time series o spatial variation differing units are measured at one point in time cross sectional Starting with a Puzzle What is the puzzle outcomes Or vice versa puzzle takes 2 forms o We expect two cases to have similar outcomes but they have different o two cases with different outcomes you believed to have the same o two cases have the same outcome you believed would have different outcome outcomes Why begin with a puzzle instead of a question o Puzzle requires some minimal knowledge of events o Puzzles establishes a foundation for our theory in concrete cases o Puzzles force us to look for non obvious causes Means of Evaluating Theories Strengthening Theories Generalization how widely does your theory apply Looking for central tendencies Not limited to one particular time period or to one particular spatial unit Make your nouns and verbs more general o president Obama wants to be reelected o presidents want to be reelected o politicians want to be reelected One cautionary note don t overgeneralize o theory and previous research should inform how general we can be Falsifiable Does your theory generate testable hypotheses o remember for a theory to be testable it must be falsifiable Ability of hypothesis to fail to be falsified helps to discern the worthwhileness Falsify the null hypothesis Theory safe for now o may accept the theory provisionally However there is no number of set tests a theory must pass before we accept of a theory it o even hypotheses that are falsified do not require that
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