Evaluations of Speculations I Truth a Model must be designed to be testable falsifiable i Early cognitive dissonance theory blame the experiment ii Freud dismissing a dissenter as going through a father rejection phase iii Piling up qualifications to explain results b Evaluation of Speculations i Test exs why did students riot in 1960s ii Model 1 Riots expressed resentment of authority test by surveying students for resentment 1 Testable 2 But tests model s assumptions not its derivations 3 Better find colleges that are more restrictive than others and see if there are more riots iii Model 2 Riots due to frustration at student demands being ignored test by examine the record of student riots on many campuses to see if the model is true 1 Testing procedure too vague to be taken seriously iv Model 3 taxpayers support free yes in Calif at this time college for students who therefore owe proper behavior test by examining taxes and education support 1 Huh 2 No process orientation doesn t predict student behavior v Circular Models cannot be tested 1 Model can account for all possible outcomes 2 Eg rain dances work when hearts are pure 3 Eg self interest produces behavior which gives evidence of self interest vi Importance of being wrong 1 Must not defend a model unreasonably 2 Try to invent alternative models in hopes of always being right on one count i Simplicity cool to find a pattern in a mess ii Fertility heuristic general widely applicable to apparently different phenomena surprise II Beauty a Elements of Beauty III Justice a Social Science
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