Public Opinion Chapter 7 Lecture 3 Jaymie Ticknor Political Science 1050 Sect 002 4 and 6 February 2014 Public opinion the collection of citizens views attitudes and beliefs on issues situations and public figures on matters of relevance to government Central component of American democracy public opinions are important because they influence how government runs Four Basic Traits salience importance of issue to a person or the public stability how likely is it that public opinion will change The speed with which the change will occur and the likelihood that the new opinion will endure direction does public favor or oppose issue The tendency for or against some phenomenon intensity measures strength of direction Political Socialization the process of absorbing knowledge about the political world and adding it to one s core knowledge develops with age and maturity events that socialize can have generational period or life cycle effects Primacy principle that what is learned first is learned best and lodged most firmly in one s mind Persistence principle that political lessons values and attitudes learned early in life tend to structure political learning later on in life Ideology consistent set of ideas about a given set of issues Sources of Political Socialization group attachments peer relationships more impact on attitudes than family personal experiences Great Depression see government in a more positive view and education exposed to civic values Measuring Public Opinion Surveys ask questions of the population on a range of issues events and people Participants given range of response options or are able to write out their answers Measurement Error the error within a study that prevents the observed attitude or opinion from being a true reflection of attitudes and opinions Limited response options lack of information lack of intensity Question wording is very important can be confusing leading or oversimplified different inferences can be drawn from question Different Types of Polls Tracking poll poll conducted periodically to track opinion over time Exit poll poll conducted by using personal interviews at polls during election days to determine winner for each state Push poll poll that spreads negative information about an opposing candidate Sampling sample small group of people who are chosen to represent the larger population population group of interest and random sampling a sample in which every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample Sampling Error error arising in a public opinion survey due to how the sample is chosen from the population biased Margin of Error a range surrounding a sample s response within which researchers are confident the larger population s true response would fall how far off it is Non response bias error that occurs when people who chose to participate have different attitudes than those that declined Political Knowledge the public is generally uninformed about politics consequences of the public s lack of knowledge about politics include choose to participate or not not watch or involved in shows presenting polls or polls in general make up things which can cause error do not know what vote means rely on non factual information Consequences of Low Political Knowledge public may say one thing but when asked again may say something else utilize cues e g candidate s party education etc answers to questions may depend upon the context may go along with what other people in a party are saying and doing Opinion Leaders individuals with high levels of interest and expertise in politics who seek to communicate their political beliefs to others have a great influence on political attitudes The Miracle of Aggregation collecting everyone s attitude together phenomenon that occurs when a group consists of individuals who are largely ignorant of a particular issue but their collective opinion tends to make sense collectively public opinion is relatively stable uninformed opinions tend to be cancelled out by informed opinions presumes that informed voters tend to have similar attitudes Textbook Generational Effect situation in which younger citizens are influenced by events in such a fashion that their attitudes and beliefs are forever rendered distinct from those of older generations Period Effect event that influences the attitudes and beliefs of people of all ages Life Cycle Effect attitudes or physical characteristics that change as one ages no matter the time period or generation the graying of one s hair is a life cycle effect