Personal Relationships, (2012). Printed in the United States of America.Copyright © 2012 IARR; DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6811.2012.01406.xA longitudinal assessment of relationshipcharacteristics that predict new parents’ relationshipsatisfactionJENNIFER A. THEISS,aROI ESTLEIN,aAND KIRSTEN M. WEBERbaRutgers University andbCentral Michigan UniversityAbstractDrawing on the relational turbulence model, this study queries whether it is the amount of relational uncertainty andpartner interference in a relationship, or the magnitude of an increase in these mechanisms over time, that accountsfor decreased relationship satisfaction for new parents. To test these competing hypotheses, a longitudinal study of78 couples was conducted in which both partners completed surveys about their relationship at 4 time points duringthe transition to parenthood. Multilevel modeling revealed that the amount and the increase of relational uncertaintyand partner interference were negatively associated with relationship satisfaction when considered separately, butwhen evaluated in combination, the magnitude of an increase in these variables was the stronger predictor ofrelationship satisfaction.The transition to parenthood is usually anexciting time for couples, but the myriadchanges to the romantic relationship thataccompany the birth of a first child can con-tribute to unexpected stressors (Gottman &Notarius, 2000; Simpson, Rholes, Campbell,Wilson, & Tran, 2002). Although some stud-ies have shown that relationship satisfactionremains relatively stable during the transitionto parenthood (e.g., Clements & Markman,1996; Huston & Vangelisti, 1995; Kurdek,1993), most existing research on this pivotalmoment in relationships suggests that the birthof a first child is associated with a declinein relationship satisfaction (e.g., Belsky &Rovine, 1990; Cowan et al., 1985; Demo &Cox, 2000; Elek, Hudson, & Bouffard, 2003;Glenn & McLanahan, 1982; Lawrence, Roth-man, Cobb, Rothman, & Bradbury, 2008). ToJennifer A. Theiss, Roi Estlein, Department of Commu-nication, Rutgers University; Kirsten M. Weber, Depart-ment of Communication, Central Michigan University.Correspondence should be addressed to Jennifer A.Theiss, Department of Communication, Rutgers Uni-versity, 4 Huntington St., New Brunswick, NJ 08901,e-mail: [email protected] decreases in relationship satisfactionduring the transition to parenthood somescholars have pointed to ecological factors,such as cultural norms and lack of social net-work support (e.g., Levy-Shiff, 1994; Levy-Shiff, Dimitrovsky, Shulman, & Har-Even,1998), and others have focused on dispo-sitional factors, such as psychological char-acteristics and past relationship experiences(e.g., Antonucci & Mikus, 1988; Cowan &Cowan, 2000). The goal of this study is tomore specifically highlight relationship char-acteristics that are salient during this transitionthat account for decreased relationship satis-faction following the birth of the first child.We draw on the logic of the relationalturbulence model (Solomon & Knobloch,2001, 2004; Solomon & Theiss, 2008) toidentify the relationship characteristics thatpredict changes in relationship satisfactionduring the transition to parenthood. Therelational turbulence model nominates rela-tional uncertainty and interference from part-ners as relationship characteristics that areheightened during relationship transitions andmake people more reactive to their relational12 J. A. Theiss, R. Estlein, and K. M. Webercircumstances. Most applications of the rela-tional turbulence model have focused on theamount of relational uncertainty and interfer-ence from partners as predictors of upheavalin relationships (e.g., Solomon & Knobloch,2004; Solomon & Theiss, 2008). An alterna-tive explanation is that relationship partnersexperience turmoil when there is a change inthe amount of relational uncertainty and part-ner interference they perceive in the relation-ship. Particularly in the long term, commit-ted relationships where relational uncertaintyand partner interference are consistently low,“high levels” of these variables are typicallystill below the midpoint of the scale (e.g.,Knobloch, 2008; Knobloch, Miller, Bond, &Mannone, 2007; Theiss & Nagy, 2010). Thus,people may experience relational turbulencein response to a change in their baseline levelsof these characteristics rather than in responseto “high” amounts of those qualities.Thus, the goals of this study are twofold.Our first objective is to draw on theory toidentify relationship characteristics that con-tribute to decreased relationship satisfactionduring the transition to parenthood. We turnto the relational turbulence model as our theo-retical framework for accomplishing this goal.Our second objective is to extend the rela-tional turbulence model by probing one ofthe core tenets of the model regarding theamount of relational uncertainty and partnerinterference, versus changes in these variablesover time, as predictors of turmoil. We beginby articulating the logic behind these objec-tives. Then, we describe the results of a lon-gitudinal dyadic study in which couples whowere becoming first-time parents respondedto surveys about their relationship at fourtime points during the transition to parent-hood, ranging from pregnancy to 6 monthsafter birth.Assumptions of the relational turbulencemodelThe relational turbulence model argues thatcertain periods of relationship developmentare vulnerable to turmoil and give rise toextreme reactions to relationship events.Although the model was originally developedto explain turmoil during the transition fromcasual to serious involvement in dating rela-tionships (Solomon & Knobloch, 2004),scholars have more recently acknowledgedthat relational turbulence can arise duringany transition that transforms the norms andexpectations for the relationship (Solomon,Weber, & Steuber, 2010). For example, recentstudies have applied the relational turbulencemodel to such transitions as the diagnosis ofbreast cancer (Weber & Solomon, 2008), thediagnosis of infertility (Steuber & Solomon,2008), and the reunion of military couples fol-lowing deployment (Theiss & Knobloch, inpress; Knobloch & Theiss, in press, 2011). Inthis study, we apply the tenets of the rela-tional turbulence model to better understandsources of upheaval during the transition toparenthood.In the model, the variety of tumultuousexperiences that may occur within roman-tic relationships during times of