Lecture 2: Prez Elections overview1st Essay assignmentLast week’s debateLast timeThe traditional presidencyTransition to modern prezCampaigns and elections questionsHistorical overview: electionsElections, cont.Historical overview: candidatesLecture 2: Prez Elections overview•Homework assignment•Last week’s debate•Last time•Presidential campaigns and elections–outline of this section of the course–historical overview of election events/practices and candidate selection events/practices1st Essay assignment•Write no more than 3 double-spaced pages (exclusive of title/abstract page and references page) on the following:–Are major-party nominees for president different systematically today from the nominees typically produced before the 1930s? Why or why not?•Include a one-paragraph (short!) abstract on a separate title page, summarizing your answer•3-paragraph introduction: hook, thesis, roadmap•Due in class Oct. 13Last week’s debate•Who “won”? –Why?•Will it make any difference?–Why or why not?Last time•Overview of course–Campaigns and elections: do campaigns matter? Do voters make “good” choices? If so, why? If not, why not? Are candidates systematically different in the modern era from those of the pre-WWII period?–Policy: Under what conditions and how does the president affect legislation? Ditto on policy implementation??•Traditional vs. Modern presidencyThe traditional presidency•Presidents were dispensers of federal patronage, but often under tightly managed conditions•Congress was very hesitant to give presidents extensive military resources•Also limited domestic policy tools•Communications technologies limited the ability of presidents to end-run decentralized party organizations to build personal reputations with the publicTransition to modern prez•communications –rise of radio in 1920s – new phenomenon of national media/entertainment/political personalities with personal reputations; TV in 1950s•massive economic dislocations of Great Depression fueled a new acceptance and dependence on the national government–Democrats changed their spots; became the party of national governmental power•WWII and Cold War–new and sustained support for military resources for the prez  expanded ability for prez to initiate action in foreign•change in nominations procedures after 1968Campaigns and elections questions•What is the empirical structure of prez campaigns and elections?–Campaign finance law.–Who gives?–Who participates (and how)?•Do campaigns matter? What are presidential election outcomes measuring?–Theories of voting behavior–retrospective voting, sociotropic voting, etc.–Theories of learning–Theories of marketing and the mediaHistorical overview: elections•Constitution reserves selection procedures for electors to the state governments•majority rule in Electoral College, backed up by unit-rule majority election in House•Electoral College is population-weighted, but with a small bias in favor of small states (one vote for each member in H or S)–prez elections thus are not “national” elections, but rather, 50 simultaneous state elections (+DC)–Electoral College: 435+100+3 = 538. Need 270 to win–CA: 55; TX 34; NY 31; FL 27; IL and PA 21; OH 20; MI 17; GA, NC and NJ 15 each, would form a winning coalitionElections, cont.•Elections of 1796, 1800 forced constitutional revision of selection rules•1824 – accelerated popularization of selection mechanisms for electors; last prez selected in House•1876 – disputed elector slates; brokered deal to end Reconstruction•1940 – FDR elected a 4th time; led to term limits for prez•2000 – Supreme Court settles Florida vote-counting dispute, determining EC outcomeHistorical overview: candidates•congressional party caucuses•breakdown of caucus system: the instability of one-party rule in a federal system•nominating conventions–who chooses the choosers?–what rules for voting?•primaries stall•primaries triumphant•public funding and