Forecasting Presidential Elections•How can we best model presidential elections?•Fun models•Serious modelsForecasting Presidential elections• Can citizens forecast the winner?– National Election Study question, 1956-84, about 69 pct of respondents correctly forecast the winner (median survey date: Oct. 7 of election year)– model of these predictions: respondents tend to predict that their candidate will win; strength of party ID, attention to news coverage not significantly related to forecasting successFun models• Red Sox Model: Red Sox success/failure in the World Series in presidential election year exactly predicts Democratic success/failure in the election– 1904: Boston Pilgrims won AL pennant, but no World Series was held when NL champs (NY Giants) refused to play the AL champs. The Pilgrims had won the first “official” World Series in 1903. Teddy Roosevelt wins the presidency– 1912: the Red Sox (renamed in 1907) beat the Giants; Woodrow Wilson wins presidency– 1916: Red Sox beat the Brooklyn Robins; Wilson reelected– low-powered test. Not enough obs.The AL/Republican Alliance• American League victory in the World Series is associated with Republican victory, National League victory with Democratic triumphs (1940-2000 data). Results are worse before 1940Am. LeagueNat’l LeagueRepub winnerDem. winner5326Χ2= 2.38, Pr= 0.13Redskins Model• Results of the last Redskins home game preceding the election predict the success/failure of the incumbent party– since 1936, every time the Redskins won, so did the incumbent party’s candidate; every time they lost, so did the incumbent party’s candidate. Perfect fit.Campbell’s model• Forecasting state Dem. 2-party vote shares, 1948-88• Key explanatory vars– September polling data–2nd-quarter GNP growth X incumbent party– Incumbent running for reelection– State vote history (4- and 8-year lags of deviation from nat’l avg)– 1st-quarter state GNP growth X incumbent party• Avg error -- ~ 3 pct pointsThis year’s models• PS, October 2004 issue– Earliest prediction: Jan. 29, 2004 (Norpoth) – Bush 54.7 pct of 2-party vote, 95 pct probable > 50 pct– Median forecast (7 models): Bush 53.8 pct, ranging from 49.9 (Aug. 27, 2004) to 57.6 pct (May 21, 2004)• Final pre-election Gallup poll, 1948-2000 has been +/- 2.1 pct from actual outcome• Current Electoral College predictors based on state polls range from high-probability Bush victory to high-probability Kerry
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