www.fraserinstitute.cahttp://www.fraserinstitute.ca/admin/books/chapterfiles/The%20Case%20for%20Environmental%20Optimism-Jan04ffenvir.pdfby Liv Fredricksen &Kenneth GreenNewspapers in Canada, like thosein much of the developedworld, give extensive coverage to alarm-ist environmental claims. Claims linkingincreasing rates of asthma and deathsdue to air pollution are carried uncriti-cally as are laments regarding human-ity’s supposedly increasing “ecologicalfootprint” and associated loss ofbiodiversity on Earth. But the reality ofthe state of the environment is quite dif-ferent than the doom and gloom por-trayals of alarmists. Things are, in fact,improving dramatically in the developedworld as improvements in technologyand access to knowledge have led to in-creasing awareness of environmental is-sues and increasing ability to protect theenvironment. There is every reason tobelieve that similar improvements willbe seen as developing countries open tointernational trade, have access to ad-vanced technologies, and develop the in-comes to afford them. Further, locally,while many Canadians are unaware ofit, the majority of environmental trendsin Canada have been positive for decades.One of the greatest success stories inenvironmental improvement is theincreasing quality of the air Canadiansbreathe (Green et al., 2004). Ambientlevels of sulphur dioxide, a pollutantproduced by burning coal and oil whichcan cause breathing problems andaggravation of respiratory disease,decreased 72.2 percent between 1974and 2001 (see figures 1a and 1b). Ambi-ent levels of particulate matter, whichcan irritate lung tissue and reduce visi-bility in the air, decreased 50.7 percentfrom 1974 and 1999. The most commonsource of carbon monoxide, which canreduce the ability of red blood cells tocarry oxygen to body tissues, is vehicleexhaust. However, improvements intechnology have resulted in an 82.6 per-cent decrease in ambient carbon mon-oxide levels between 1974 and 2001despite the fact that there has been a 30percent increase in total vehicle registra-tions over the same period (StatisticsCanada, 2000, p. 121). The decline inambient lead levels is the greatest suc-cess story in the efforts to reduce airpollution. Ambient lead levels fell 94percent in Canada from 1974 to 1998; infact, the concentration dropped to sucha low level that it no longer neededmeasuring, and resources were divertedfrom lead measurement to other activi-ties. Nitrogen dioxide, a highly reactivegas emitted by both natural and indus-trial activities, is a cause for concernbecause it combines with volatileorganic compounds to produce ozone,considered to be a precursor to smog.Canadian ambient levels of nitrogendioxide decreased 34.4 percent between1974 and 2001. That’s not to say thenews is all good—there is still a problemwith ground level ozone which, for rea-sons not fully understood, is increasingdespite decreases in precursor chemi-cals, but clearly, the trends in air qualityhave been astonishingly good.The same seems to be true of Canada’swater quality, though the quality of thenation’s surface water is more difficultto assess. Data measurement and analy-sis of environmental water quality fallunder provincial jurisdiction, and pro-cedures across the country are far fromstandardized. However, where pollut-ants and water quality have been mea-sured sufficiently to evaluate trends,definite improvements are evident. Forexample, in British Columbia, whichmonitors 33 water bodies based on a setof Provincial Water Quality Objectives,50 percent of the water bodies evaluatedare in Good or Excellent condition, and94 percent of the water bodies are ratedto be at least Fair. Only 2 water bodiesare considered Borderline, and none arerated to be Poor (BCMWLAP, 2002).However, British Columbia’s surfacewater has faced relatively fewer stressors14 | Fraser ForumThe Case forEnvironmentalOptimismLiv Fredricksen ([email protected]) is a researcher in The Fraser Institute’s Centrefor Studies in Risk and Regulation, and coordinates the Annual Survey of MiningCompanies.Kenneth Green, DEnv ([email protected]) is Chief Scientist and Director of theRisk and Environment Centre at The Fraser Institute. He most recently wrote GlobalWarming: Understanding the Debate, a textbook for middle-school students, publishedby Enslow Publishers.Fraser Forumthan some other key water bodies suchas the Great Lakes.The largest system of fresh surface wateron earth, containing roughly 18 percentof the world’s supply, the Great Lakesspan the Canada/US border and arejointly monitored and assessed. Thearea contains a large concentration ofindustrial capacity including almost 70percent of American and Canadian steelmills, and supports both a large popula-tion and a large agricultural base. As aresult, the Great Lakes have historicallyserved as a dumping ground for highconcentrations of industrial waste. Bythe 1960s, the Great Lakes showed signsof serious degradation. Efforts sincethen, however, have resulted in dra-matic improvements. For example,toxic contaminants such as DDE andPCBs decreased dramatically in each ofthe great lakes (see figures 2 and 3).Levels of DDE decreased 86 percent inLake Ontario, 89 percent in Lake Erie,85 percent in Lake Michigan, 91 percentin Lake Superior, and 93 percent in LakeHuron from 1974 to 2002. PCB levelsshowed similar trends, decreasing 89percent in Lake Ontario, 82 percent inLake Erie, 80 percent in Lake Michigan,87 percent in Lake Superior, and 92 per-January 2004 | 15Figure 3: PCB Levels in Herring Gull Eggsin the Great Lakes0204060801001201401601801972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002YearConcentration (ppb)Lake SuperiorLake HuronLake MichiganLake ErieLake OntarioFigure 2: DDE Levels in Herring Gullsof the Great Lakes05101520253035401974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999YearConcentration (ppb)Lake SuperiorLake HuronLake MichiganLake ErieLake OntarioFigure 1b: Trends for Particulate Matter andLead in Canada0204060801001974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998ug/m3 (PM)00.20.40.60.8ug/m3 (Lead)PM (ug/m3)Lead (ug/m3)Figure 1a: Trends for Nitrogen Dioxide, SulphurDioxide, Ozone, and Carbon Monoxide in Canada051015202530351974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998Parts per billion0.00.51.01.52.02.5Parts per millionNO2 (ppb)SO2 (ppb)O3 (ppb)CO (ppm)Environmental PolicyData supplied by John Shelton, Environmental Technology Advance-ment Directorate, Analysis and Air Quality Division, EnvironmentCanada, to Steven Hansen on May 9, 2003.