I feel like I m diagonally parked in a parallel universe OCNG 251 Oceanography Tuesday Sept 02 2008 Of Maps and Bearings Systems and Cycles 1 Cycle Approach 2 The Water Planet and the Hydrological Cycle Let s Talk about Systems This isn isn t new You use it everyday I I ll give you example Formally defined and used System Science provides a methodology for describing quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of complex dynamic systems o Quantitative that means numbers o Method science is methodological o Behavior how things things act work react react o Complex and Dynamic Let s define systems Large and complex systems interactions Increasing complexity System a conceptual image A system physical A bathtub full empty of water A glass full of soda bubbles A lake An Ocean Water on Earth Also social economic political Population dynamics in South Texas Economics of Nafta agreement Politics of European Union Systems a conceptual image When we provide a quantitative description of a model we call it system modeling Systems a conceptual image Qualitative system description can be very useful in identifying system components and interactions Permits a first hand understanding of the system system s behavior overview of all elements of the system and their relationships Stimulates questions such as Where is the material coming from where is it going next Helps identify gaps in knowledge Can be used to infer manipulations manipulations alterations of the system e g what will happen if you change the leader of a country Gives a basis for quantitative description Let s talk about models Milk in my fridge If I know the gallon is empty when should I go to the grocery store to buy a new one Household size Individual consumption rate of utilization Etc Etc if I don don t use it it will go bad bad and I I d still need to go some day Let s talk about models and do something useful for once You want to drive from CC to Dallas How many times do you need to fill up your tank What do we know Gas tank capacity 20 gallons Gas mileage 20 miles gallon Distance from here to there 412 miles You have only half a tank full Mental models What is an atom Making predictions It is formed of sub particles an even smaller ones Electrons negative charge extremely small mass Protons positive charge large mass Neutrons no charge large mass Aquifer recharge proposed Mary Rhodes pipeline Pass through needs for estuaries Water scenario Regional management model Ground Waters Spatial Distribution of As 50 Arsenic Uranium 45 Molybdenum 40 35 U Std ppb 30 25 20 15 As Std 10 5 Arsenic levels elevated above ambient levels by an order of magnitude depending on the hydrodynamic regime Hydrodynamic control evapoconcentration 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Well Number Climate of un certainty M M t CiQi CQo Rd Rp AsL t AsL t 1 t 1 As iQi As Q As Qo As t As t AsL t Vol Vol t As Mass Balance Lake CC 70 15 0 60 50 40 9 0 30 6 0 20 Calculated Measured Vol 3 0 10 Au ly gu st Se pt O ct N ov D ec Ja n Fe b M ar ch Ap ril M ay Ju ne Ju Au ly gu st Ju Ju M ne 0 ril ay 0 0 Ap As ug l 12 0 Month Gustav Gustav s forecast was spot on on 3 4 days in advance Climate of un certainty Critics say we shouldn shouldn t act on the Kyoto protocol or even curb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climate change from sound science science Soundness Soundness of science is defined in terms of perceived un certainty Climate Forcings Hansen J 2004 2004 Scientific American 290 68 77 Hansen J and M Sato Sato 2001 2001 Trends of measured climate forcing agents Proceed Nat Acad Acad Science Science Vol Vol 98 26 14778 14783 Cycle Approach Source Q A flux of material into a reservoir Sink S A flux of material out of a reservoir Budget A balance sheet of all sources and sinks of a reservoir If sources and sinks balance each other and do not change with time the reservoir is in steady state M does not change with time If steady state prevails then a fllux that is unknown can be estimated by its difference from the other fluxes Turnover time time The ratio of the content M of the reservoir to the sum of its sinks S or sources Q The time it will take to empty the reservoir if there aren aren t any sources It is also a measure of the average time an atom molecule spends in the reservoir Cycle Cycle A system consisting of two or more connected reservoir where a large part of the material is transferred through the system in a cyclic fashion Cycle Approach Some Definitions Transport and transformation processes within definite reservoirs Carbon Rock Water Cycles Reservoir box compartment M in mass units or moles An amount of material defined by certain physical chemical or biological characteristics that can be considered homogeneous O2 in the atmosphere Carbon in living organic matter in the Ocean Ocean Water in surface water masses Flux F The amount of material transferred from one reservoir to another per unit time per unit area The rate of evaporation of water from the surface Ocean The rate of deposition of inorganic carbon carbonates on marine sediments The rate of contaminant input to a lake or a bay The Rock Cycle The Organic Carbon Cycle A simple thing really Cycle Approach Advantages Provides overview of fluxes reservoir contents and turnover time Gives a basis for quantitative modeling Helps to estimate the relative magnitudes of natural and anthropogenic fluxes Stimulates questions such as Where is the material coming from where is it going next Helps identify gaps in knowledge Cycle Approach Disadvantages Analysis by necessity superficial Little or no insight into what goes inside the reservoir black box box Gives false impression of certainty Often at least one of the fluxes is derived from balance considerations may be erroneous Analysis based on average quantities that cannot always be easily measured because of spatial and temporal variations as well as other factors The Water Hydrologic Cycle The Water Cycle in detail The volume of water at the surface of the Earth is enormous 1 37 109 km3 total reservoir The Oceans cover 71 of the Earth Earth s surface 29 for the continent masses above sea level Reservoir Biosphere Volume km3 0 6 103 Rivers Atmosphere Lakes Groundwater Glacial and other land ice Oceanic water and sea ice Total Of total yearly evaporation 84 evaporates from the Oceans and 16 from continental surfaces However return to the Earth surface via precipitation 75 falls directly on the Oceans and 25 on the