Today: Super Bowl & PR, Continue with Research & PlanningPR & the Super BowlJCPenny tweets “drunkenly” three times about the gameTHEN, JCPenny tweets they were tweeting with mittens to explain the typos  publicity stunt or cover up?Professor’s thought is that the company isn’t doing well, wants to bring attention/followers to JCPennySampling: Probability vs. Nonprobability samplingProbability Sampling: each element of the population has a…Non-zeroKnow, andEqual chanceOf being selected into the sampleNonprobability Sampling:One of the assumptions of probability sampling is violated; e.g.. TV call in polls (there are certain types of people more likely to be viewing it), internet surveysIf poll goes out at 2 pm, fathers are at work, mothers may be homeImportant: in order to calculate sampling error (i.e., a measure of how precise a poll really is) we need to use probability sampling techniques!Types of Probability SamplingSimple Random Sampling (SRS)Every element and every combination of elements has an equal chance of being selectedProblem: requires a list of sampling units requires access to telephone maybe, everyone has the opportunitySystematic SamplingChoose a starting point and every nth unit is chosen to be selected ex. Phonebook: call every 10th personProblem: requires a list of sampling unitsCluster SamplingDivide population into clusters and then randomly choose X number of clusters; may also sample within clustersTypes of Nonprobability SamplingAccidental/Haphazard/Convenience SamplingExit pollsCall-in pollsPurposive/Judgemental Sampling“typical” precinctsMedical research you don’t want random sample, ex: medical wants to find treatment for asthma (so you will want to test those with asthma), seeking out people based on certain characteristicSnowball SamplingInvitation based on your sample involves sending a link to fb friends maybe, and asking them to pass it on to people in their social network, growsQuota SamplingOnce most common sampling techniqueInvolves sampling according to pre-defined characteristics of population we know x % of population is Hispanic, so seek out that percentSamples, Sampling, and Population DistributionsIf you ask 5 or so, you don’t know what you will get (could be 5 democrats or 5 republicans, no idea)But if you ask 1,000, you will get a solid idea of where people are actually going to vote*The more you ask, the closer you get to reality  your margin of error shrinks, you get much more accurate results, a normal distributionThis is what you really need to know about samplingSampling Error and Sample Size: Diminishing ReturnsAt some point, you will reach diminishing returnsSo say we are calling in election data, you want to know if democratic or republican candidate is more likely to win. A graph shows margin of error and sample size. If we only ask 200 people, there is a higher margin of error. The more people you ask, the lower the margin of error. Increasing sample size decreases margin of error. But at some point, you are bringing in all these people and it costs money to sample more, and it doesn’t do much for margin of error. From 600 to 2,000 people, you are decreasing the margin of error by maybe 1%, but you can stop because you will hit a point of diminishing returns. So for this reason 1,000 is usually the stopping point.The Development of Opinion and Market ResearchBefore 1940s:Naïve outlook regarding research and what it could do based on:WWI PropagandaOrson Welles’ “War of the Worlds” (radiobroadcast causing widespread panic, thought alien invasion)Lack of commonly accepted-research procedures“Magic Bullet” (media as magic bullet, we blindly follow)During and immediately after WWII:Involvement of government in applied researchColumbia’s “Bureau of Applied Social Research”Lazarsfeld et al wrote The People’s ChoiceNew developments in research techniquesWe started to understanding that sampling size matters and how we ask survey questions matters“Reinforcement and two-step flow”we moved from idea of media as magic to idea that media is about reinforcement and two step flow, so if I hear something I already believe in, I will accept it as the idea is reinforced. Two step flow is the media influences key opinion leaders in opinion leader, then you follow them. People that matter to you are doing it.During and after 1950s:Sharp increase in privately-funded PR and advertising researchEmergence of telephone and online pollingAs a result: development of (industry) research as we know it today“Contingent and delayed effects”media affects our contingent, contingent on things like our values/political beliefs, meaning media will influence certain people more than others, the degree to which we readily accept media informationdelayed effects (sleeper effect) meaning sometimes media will tell you something and you’ll dismiss it but a week later the residual effects are still there, maybe subconsciously, familiarity from the ads you saw of somethingOpinion LeadersHas been around for a long time and will continue to be aroundEx: Chase Bank and opinion leadersChase Bank will ask sorority/fraternity members to pass message along, and they will give vouchers for restaurants/concert ticket opportunities (geared toward university), they see college students as opinion leaders and give us perks and they will pass along this info through their social networks. If you hit a few key important individuals, it will influence the masses.Using Research…Ways to use researchAchieve credibility with managementI can show you why this will work based on experiment, survey, literatureDefine/segment publicsWhat messages will work for themFormulate strategyGetting sense what they want build strategy accordinglyTest messagesTest slogan, send it to focus group first; do interviews then have evidence to support slogan or notPrevent crisesMonitor competitionPR curious how people respond do their tweets/FB, so monitor social mediaGenerate publicityEX: JCPenny tweetMeasure successInduction vs. Deduction (as they relate to research)InductionYou collect observations then can arrive at a unified conclusionEX: people tend to remember the first and last items from a list better than items in the middle, so you develop a…Theory: theory of primacy and receny (last thing) effects in information processingThis is how someone may arrive at a theoryDeductionStart with a theory than gather information to