Waterfowl and Climate Change: Issues and ImplicationsThe Nature of the ProblemSlide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Climate Change and Wetlands…WaterfowlWaterfowl and Climate ChangeThe Migratory FlywaysPacific FlywayCentral FlywayMississippi FlywayAtlantic FlywayChesapeake BayNorth America’s duck factoryClimate ProjectionsClimate Change and the PPRSlide 19Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK)MigrationEffects on waterfowlManagement ImplicationsSlide 24Ducks UnlimitedSlide 26AcknowledgementsQuestions?Waterfowl and Climate Change:Issues and ImplicationsSonja M. SmithThe Nature of the Problem•Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2)…The Nature of the Problem•Rising global temperatures…The Nature of the Problem•Changing precipitation patterns…The Nature of the Problem•Rising sea levels,•Mounting climactic variability,•And, more (often) extreme climactic events…The Nature of the Problem•Anthropogenic land cover change further confounds the issue…Morenci Mine, Morenci, AZJohannesburg, South AfricaClimate Change and Wetlands…•Important breeding grounds•Congregation sites throughout the year/migration•Important winter habitat•Biodiversity hotspots in arid regionsBasque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, NMWaterfowl•Provide important ecosystem goods, annually:–12 million hunting days–46 million birders•Integral component of natural ecosystems•Critical role in wildlife policy development–National Wildlife Refuge SystemWaterfowl and Climate Change•Coastal/Inland wetland habitat loss–Breeding grounds–Migration corridors (flyways)–Stopover sites•Timing/distance travelled during migrationStrong relationship between waterfowl & water conditionsThe Migratory Flyways•1) Pacific•2) Central•3) Mississippi•4) Atlantic1234Pacific Flyway•Habitat loss from rising sea levels/encroaching development•↓ snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt = ↓ summer water–10-30 days earlier–11% decrease in snowpack–Cascades: 30-60% decline in snowmelt-derived waterCentral Flyway•Water regulation/diversion (dams)–Reduction in open channels/marshes–Sandhill Cranes, Whooping Cranes•↓ snowpack/higher temperatures–Limited water availability for humans/other species•The Prairie Pothole RegionMississippi Flyway•Water/shoreline habitat loss in Great Lakes…–19-39% decline in duck numbers•Drop in water levels (up to 2.4’)–Decline in SAV•Increasing contaminant levels•Gulf Coast sea-level rise  45% coastal habitat loss•Canvasbacks, Redheads, Lesser ScaupAtlantic Flyway•Sea-level rise (up to 15”) confounded by development •Canvasback, American Black Duck, Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, Greater & Lesser Scaup, Ring-necked Duck, Green-winged Teal, Mottled Duck, Wood Duck, Fulvous Whistling Duck, Tundra SwanChesapeake Bay•One of the top wintering waterfowl areas in N. America–>1 million waterfowl•Exacerbation of pollution effects•Decline in SAV–Degradation in water quality–Warming temperatures–Increasing human population•Area already abandoned by Northern Pintail, Redhead, American WigeonNorth America’s duck factoryPrairie Pothole RegionPacificFlywayCentralFlywayMississippiFlyway•10% breeding habitat•Produces 50-80% N. America’s ducks•>75% harvested ducksClimate Projections•Palmer draught severity index (PDSI)–GCMs and sensitivity simulations to predict habitat conditions/project future duck numbers•Correlation between:–pond numbers and PDSI–breeding duck numbers and PDSI•2020s: mild drought, PDSI = -1.41–May pond numbers decline by 23%–Duck population decline by 26%Climate Change and the PPRClimate Change and the PPR•2050s: moderate drought, PDSI = -2.59–May Pond numbers decrease by 38%–Duck population decline by 46%Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK)•20% N. American breeding waterfowl•Wintering habitat for 50% Pacific Flyway birds•Arctic region is the fastest warming•Loss of important tundra habitat•Lesser Scaup, Surf Scoter, White-winged ScoterMigration•Species expected to skirt their ranges northwards and eastwards•Shift in wintering areas–i.e., Lithuania Mallards•Shortening migration routes•Take-off/Arrival times noticeably earlierEffects on waterfowl•Decrease breeding frequency•Reduce clutch sizes•Shorten breeding season•Decrease re-nesting frequency•Decrease nest success•Lower brood survival•Lower recruitment + constant mortality = declining populationsManagement Implications•Climate change is detracting for many waterfowl species, but…•Habitat loss/other related anthropogenic effects on the environment confound this!•Repercussions of habitat loss and climate change may be mitigated by the distribution of remaining habitat …Management Implications•YOU as future managers:•Predict areas important for waterfowl in the future•Set aside larger areas, buffering zones•YOU as citizens, hunters, bird-watchers…Ducks Unlimited•Grassroots, volunteer-based organization•Conserves, restores, and manages wetlands and associated habitats for N. America’s waterfowl•792,638 members (as of 1 January 2008)•12,283,871 acres since 1937•$2.70 billion since 1937•http://www.ducks.org/conservation/Ducks UnlimitedAcknowledgements•Dr. Bill Mannan•Geoffrey Palmer•Clay