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UCSB ECON 1 - LUPI

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Time for playing gamesGamesLUPISlide 4Slide 5NimSlide 7Nim to 11Nim to 22Nim, working backwardsSlide 11Pick half the averageSlide 13Slide 14Time for playing gamesForm pairsYou will get a sheet of paper to play games withYou will have 12 minutes to play the games and turn them inGamesGame 1Each pair picks exactly one whole numberThe lowest unique positive integer winsGame 2Player A goes first, picks a whole number from 1 to 10Player B goes next, adds to A’s choice by a number from 1 to 10Players A and B alternate until one person reaches the winning numberExample: Player A picks 5, Player B picks 6, Player A picks 13, Player B picks 19, etc.Game 3Each pair picks exactly one numberThe number closest to half the average winsLUPILowest unique positive integer gameThe winner is the person that meets the following criteriaExactly one person picked the numberThere is no smaller number in which exactly one person picked that numberLUPIExample with 20 participants0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 50, 99, 1000 does not win (three people guessed this)1 does not win (six people guessed this)2 does not win (two people guessed this)3 does not win (two people guessed this)4 wins (exactly one person guessed this)LUPINE is complicated Many of you probably tried to figure out what everyone else in the class guessedExample: If you believe that everyone else will pick 0, I should pick 1Example: If you believe that everyone else will pick 0 or 1 with probability ½, then I should pick 2NimRecall rulesEach person must add a whole number from 1 to 10 when it is her/his turnThe person that hits the winning number winsNimIf each person plays optimally, the winning number determines who winsHow do we do this?A method called backward inductionSuppose, for example, we play to 11Nim to 11The first person picks a number between 1-10The second person picks 11  winnerNim to 22The first person picks a number between 1-10Suppose I act secondHow should I act?If I pick 11, then I know I can win, because I can repeat the same set of steps to guarantee victoryExample  3, 11, 19, 22Nim, working backwardsBased on the previous logic, if I can pick numbers that are multiples of 11 less than the winning number, I can guarantee victoryThis is what I will call the “path to victory”Nim, working backwardsExamples of paths to victory99  88  77  66  55  44  33  22  11100  89  78  67  56  45  34  23  12  1In the first game, the first person to act cannot guarantee victory if the other player knows the path to victoryIn the second game, the first player can guarantee victory by choosing 1 and then following the path to victoryPick half the averageRules:Each person picks a number from 0 to 100The person that picks the number closest to half of the average winsIn case of a tie, the winners split the prizePick half the averageIf you assume that each player picks a number randomly between 0 and 100, then I know the average is 50, and I should pick 25However, it would be irrational for anyone to pick a number over 50, since it cannot win  Should I pick a number over 25?Pick half the averageI can repeat this thinking an infinite number of times to reach the NEEverybody should pick 0How many people picked…0?A number over


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UCSB ECON 1 - LUPI

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