Slide 1What Is Science?Basic Principles of ScienceBasic Principles of ScienceTestable Hypotheses And TheoriesWhat Are Statistics, And Why Are They Important?A Few Common Statistical FallaciesSystemsSlide 9Chapter 2 Principles Of Science And SystemsWhat Is Science? •Science Depends On Skepticism And Accuracy •Deductive And Inductive Reasoning Are Both Useful–Deductive: Use Existing Knowledge to Find New Facts–Inductive: Generalize from Observations•Testable Hypotheses And Theories Are Essential ToolsBasic Principles of Science•Empiricism: Experiment and Observation•Uniformitarianism–Physical Laws Uniform in Space and Time–This is a Finding, Not An Assumption•Parsimony (KISS: Keep it Simple, Students)–Simple isn’t Automatically Right–Unnecessarily Complex is Usually WrongBasic Principles of Science•Uncertainty–Theories always open to correction or Improvement–Reality Check: Atoms are Real•Repeatability–When in Doubt, You can Repeat Observations•Testable QuestionsTestable Hypotheses And Theories•Testable Hypotheses And Theories Are Essential Tools–Commonly Used as a Criterion for Whether an Idea is Scientific–Repeat Observations, Logical Consistency–Has to be “Risky”What Are Statistics, And Why Are They Important? •Exploring Science Understanding Probability Helps Reduce Uncertainty •Statistics Can Indicate The Probability That Your Results Were Random •Experimental Design Can Reduce Bias•Models Are An Important Experimental Strategy•Need to Understand Common Statistical FallaciesA Few Common Statistical Fallacies•Confusing order and probability•Long runs do not make an event less probable•Long negative runs do not make an event more probable•Spurious patterns•Clusters don’t make events more or less probable.•After-the-fact probabilities•Treating non-random events as chance events•Poor memory and fakerySystems•Systems Describe Interactions •Systems Can Be Described In Terms Of Their Characteristics •Systems May Exhibit Stability, Cyclic Behavior or Instability•Scientific Consensus And Conflict •Detecting Pseudoscience Relies On Independent, Critical
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