Center for Statistical Ecology and Environmental Statistics Geographic Surveillance of Hotspot Detection Prioritization and Early Warning By G P Patil1 R Modarres2 P Patankar3 S L Rathbun1 and C Taillie1 1 Center for Statistical Ecology and Environmental Statistics Department of Statistics Penn State University 2 Department of Statistics George Washington University 3 Department of Computer Science and Engineering Penn State University This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No 0307010 Any opinions findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation This project is funded in part under a grant with the Pennsylvania Department of Health using Tobacco Settlement Funds The Department specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses interpretations or conclusions Invited paper for The National Conference on Digital Government Research Atlanta GA Technical Report Number 2005 0201 TECHNICAL REPORTS AND REPRINTS SERIES February 2005 Department of Statistics The Pennsylvania State University University Park PA 16802 G P Patil Distinguished Professor and Director Tel 814 865 9442 Fax 814 865 1278 Email gpp stat psu edu http www stat psu edu gpp http www stat psu edu hotspots DGOnline News An Equal Opportunity University Geoinformatic Surveillance of Hotspot Detection Prioritization and Early Warning G P PATIL P PATANKAR S L RATHBUN AND C TAILLIE Penn State University and REZA MODARRES George Washington University A Geoinformatic Hotspot Surveillance System GHS will be demonstrated This system is comprised of an upper level set scan statistic system for hotspot delineation and a poset prioritization and ranking system for hotspot prioritization Additional Key Words and Phrases Upper level set scan statistic Posets Government agencies often require concise summaries of georeferenced data to support their decisions regarding the geographic allocation of resources Geoinformatic surveillance for spatial and spatiotemporal hotspot detection and prioritization is a critical need for the 21st century A hotspot can mean an unusual phenomenon anomaly aberration outbreak or critical area Hotspot delineation and prioritization may be required for etiology management or early warning With support from the NSF DG program an interdisciplinary team has developed a prototype Geoinformatic Hotspot Surveillance GHS system for hotspot delineation and prioritization Our efforts are driven by a wide variety of case studies of potential interest to Federal agencies and involving critical society issues such as public health ecosystem health biosecurity biosurveillance robotic networks social networks sensor networks video mining homeland security and early warning The prototype system is comprised of modules for 1 hotspot detection and delineation and 2 hotspot prioritization Geoinformatic Surveillance System Geoinformatic spatio temporal data from a variety of data products and data sources with agencies academia and industry Masks filters Spatially distributed response variables Hotspot analysis Prioritization Decision support systems Masks filters Indicators weights Our approach employs a novel upper level set scan statistic to delineate arbitrarily shaped hotspots in both spatial and spatiotemporal dimensions Patil and Taillie 2004a It features maximum likelihood estimation of candidate hotspots an upper level set tree and confidence sets for assessing uncertainty in hotspot delineation Intensity G g Z3 Z2 Z1 Schematic intensity surface A g Z4 Z5 Z6 B C We propose a novel prioritization scheme based on multiple indicators that does not require reduction of the data to a single index This poset prioritization and ranking system features Haase diagrams describing the partial ordering of the data linear extension decision trees enumerating admissible rankings among hotspots and cumulative rank functions for hotspot prioritization Patil and Taillie 2004b Linear extension decision tree Poset B Hasse Diagram e a b c d f b a c e b b d c b e d d e d f f f f e e d a d e c d e f e f f e f d c f d e f e f e f a d c c e f e f f e f e For additional information regarding our project see http www stat psu edu hotspots and http www stat psu edu gpp REFERENCES Patil G P and Taillie C 2004a Upper level set scan statistic for detecting arbitrarily shaped hotspots Environmental and Ecological Statistics 11 183 197 Patil G P and Taillie C 2004b Multiple indicators partially ordered sets and linear extensions Multi criterion ranking and prioritization Environmental and Ecological Statistics 11 199 228 This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No 0307010 and by the Pennsylvania Department of Health using Tobacco Settlement Funds Any opinions findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author s and do not necessarily reflect the view of the National Science Foundation or of the Pennsylvania Department of Health Authors addresses G P Patil S L Rathbun and C Taillie Department of Statistics Penn State University University Park PA 16802 P Patankar Department of Computer Science and Engineering Penn State University University Park PA 16802 R Modarres Department of Statistics George Washington University Washington D C 20052 Permission to make digital hard copy of part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that the copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage the copyright notice the title of the publication and its date of appear and notice is given that copying is by permission of the ACM Inc To copy otherwise to republish to post on servers or to redistribute to lists requires prior specific permission and or a fee 2001 ACM 1073 0516 01 0300 0034 5 00