Black and Latino socioeconomic and political competition: has a decade made a difference?by Paula D. McClain and Steven C. TauberUsing 1980s data, McClain and Karnig (1990) examined the extent of socioeconomic and political competition between Blacks and Latinos in 49 cities that had a population over 25,000 with at least 10% Blacks and 10% Latino. That research found a positive correlation between Blacks and Latinos on socioeconomic indicators, but it discovered the emergence of political competition between the 2 groups. Using 1990s data, this article examines political and socioeconomic competition in the 45 cities from the earlier data set that still met McClain and Karnig’s criteria. The authors have found that although there is still a positive covariation on socioeconomic indicators, the intensity of this relationship has diminished. On the political dimension, Black and Latino competition now may be displaced by increasing competition between Whites and Latinos. We conclude tentatively that a decade has made a difference in terms of socioeconomic and political competition between Blacks and Latinos.© COPYRIGHT 1998 Sage Publications Inc.The changing racial population dynamics of urban politics has spawned research that focuses attention on the patterns of relationships between the various racial minority groups -- Blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans -- in urban areas. Scholars have reached no consensus, however, on the dominant pattern of relationships. Some research characterizes it as one of cooperation, a "rainbow coalition" approach (Browning, Marshall, & Tabb, 1984, 1990; Henry, 1980; Henry & Munoz, 1991; Regalado, 1994; Saito, 1993; Sonenshein, 1990, 1993; Stewart, 1993). Others find little basis on which to build coalitions and identify competition as the emerging pattern (Bobo, Zubrinsky, Johnson, & Oliver, 1994; Cohen, 1982; Dyer, Vedlitz, & Worchel, 1989; Falcon, 1988; Freer, 1994; Johnson, Jones, Farrell, & Oliver, 1992; Johnson & Oliver, 1989; Meier & Stewart, 1990; Mollenkopf, 1990; Oliver & Johnson, 1984; Sec, 1986-1987; Tedin & Murray, 1994; Warren, Corbett, & Stack, 1986, 1990). Still others find elements of both patterns (Jennings, 1992; McClain, 1993, 1994; McClain & Karnig, 1990; McClain & Stewart, 1995; McClain & Tauber, 1994, 1995). The divergence of the research makes the retesting of previous work essential to identify consistency or changes in the nature and pattern of interminority group relationships.In a 1990 American Political Science Review article, using data collected in the 1980s, McClain and Karnig examined the extent of socioeconomic and political competition between Blacks and Latinos in a set of U.S. cities. This article reexamines the same hypotheses tested in the 1990 article by using updated 1990s census and other data. The questions addressed are the following: Does the significant presence of one minority group affect the other minority group? Are political and economic outcomes complementary or do the successes of one minority come at the expense of the other? Using McClain and Karnig’s results on these questions as a baseline, we also explore the following added questions: How have things changed? How have they stayed the same?RESULTS FROM THE 1990 AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE RE VIEW (APSR) ARTICLEThe results reported in the 1990 APSR article were based on data about the 49 U.S. cities greater than 25,000 in population containing at least 10% Blacks and 10% Latinos in 1980.’ Analyses of socioeconomic data -- income, education, employment, and percentage nonpoverty -- revealed no harmful competition overall between Blacks and Latinos. Results supported the positive covariation model. Where any group (Black, Latino, and White) prospered with respect to education, income, employment, and nonpoverty, the other groups did much better as well, the "rising tide lifts all boats" metaphor. Political outcome data -- percentage city council, proportionality of council representation, Black or Latino mayor -- presented a different picture. When either Blacks or Latinos gained politically, they did so at the expense of Whites. Political competition between Blacks and Latinos was evident only when controlling for White political outcomes. This suggested that as Black and Latino political successes increased, political competition between Blacks and Latinos may be triggered, especially as fewer Whites reside in minority-dominated cities.Evidence also showed that competition did appear to occur as the size of the Black population increased, with negative consequences to Latinos, particularly on several socioeconomic measures. Increases in the Latino proportion of a city’s population, however, did not appear related to competition harmful to Blacks. Moreover, in a small sample of cities in which Blacks were a plurality or majority, Latinos seemed to fare less well socioeconomically and, in particular, politically.1990s DATA AND METHODAmerican Politics Quarterly April 1998 v26 n2 p237(16) Page 1- Reprinted with permission. Additional copying is prohibited. -Information AccessC O M P A N YBlack and Latino socioeconomic and political competition: has a decade made a difference?This article uses a 1990s data set collected by using the same criteria as the McClain and Karnig (1990) 1980s set. Data(2) were collected on the 96 U. S. cities with more than 2 5,000 in population containing at least 10% Blacks and 10% Latinos in 1990. (This is nearly a 100% increase in the number of cities [n = 49] meeting these thresholds in McClain and Karnig’s 1980 data.) Nevertheless, for comparability purposes, we confine this analysis to the 1980 cities that met the McClain and Karnig criteria in 1990. Forty-five of the original 49 cities appeared in the 1990 data; thus, this analysis is on those cities (n = 45).(3) Socioeconomic indicators include median education,(4) median income, percentage nonpoverty population, percentage employed, and Black-Latino ratios of nonpoverty, income, education, and employment.(5) Political measures concerned elective municipal office: whether Blacks (Latinos) hold mayoral offices, what percentage of the city council is Black (Latino), and the proportionality of Black (Latino) council representation when standardized by the size of the Black (Latino) population in the city. In keeping with the techniques of the 1990 article, we use simple and partial correlations to retest the propositions. Our intent is not to discuss all