International Relations Puzzles Puzzle 1 Democratic peace theory War s inefficiency theory Russo Georgia War Why would two bordering democratic states with similar interests go to war Hypothesis 1 If states operate in an anarchic system and interests and alliances change then two bordering states with formerly similar and cooperative interests will then conflict and compete Level 3 Level of Anarchy and Order Hypothesis 2 If a leader in an alliance decides that there is greater gain in the near future to opt out of an alliance and compete with its neighbor then it will go to war with that neighbor for a resource or prospect it finds valuable Level 1 Prospect Theory Hypothesis 3 If two states are competing geographically for the same resources and the resource will inevitably be depleted then either state may initiate a conflict with its neighboring state Level 2 Geopolitics Hypothesis 4 Even though two bordering states may have similar interests similar political culture or even an alliance if their ideology or tradition differs they may then go to conflict or go to war because of that difference Level 2 Tradition and Ideology Hypothesis 5 If two democratic states border each other in a globalized system with increased social movements a bordering state may find its neighbor counter to public opinion and may then be pressured to conflict with its neighbor Level 4 Public Opinion and Globalization Puzzle 2 Dependency theory North Korea Why would a third world state failing economically act hostile to the international community Hypothesis 1 If a leader is irrational and deems the world powers as not following their belief system it will act hostile to other states beyond its strength and will deprive the nation of economic or political improvement Level 1 Perceptions and images of the world Hypothesis 2 If a leader believes that any power a rival nation gains is power lost then its will be hostile to any rival nation that takes away from its power even if it has negative economic consequences Level 1 Game Theory Hypothesis 3 If a third world state possesses no source of wealth or is at loss because of the imperialism of the first world states it would then conflict with those states any institution headed by those states and any country allied with those states Level 3 Distribution of Power within the System Hypothesis 4 If nearly all other states are in competition with the third world state and they possess military hard power and advanced wealth and industrial capacity the third world state then sees a loss of power and would be hostile with states that could be political bullies Hypothesis 5 If a third world state is hardly affected by global social movements it would then continue to be uncooperative and hostile with states affected by the movements as public opinion within the state supports no change in foreign policy Level 4 Social Movements and Globalization Puzzle 3 Domino Theory Islamic Fundamentalist Revolution of Iran 1979 Why would a super power not protect or support its ally in an area competing with its own interests and ideology Hypothesis 1 If a leader of a super power finds little gain or value in remaining allies with a state it will no longer support that state or protect it Level 1 Prospect Theory Hypothesis 2 If a super power s leader finds little alternative but to no longer support the government of an ally then it will not jeopardize its assets or power and will support another government or create a new alliance Level 1 Poliheuristic theory Hypothesis 3 If a super power s ideology is no longer compatible with an ally s ideology then it will act intransigent with its own ideology and no longer support the ally for its newly adopted one Level 2 History tradition ideology Hypothesis 4 In an anarchic system if a super power sees greater interests being met in another alliance it will no longer support the alliance it currently maintains and will invest in or support another one that could even be crippling to its original ally Level 3 Anarchy and Order Hypothesis 5 If global media is increasing but sided from the super power s perspective because of it s wealthy individuals running the media public opinion will then be swayed to support the interests of the government or wealthy individuals by not supporting its ally Level 4 Media and Globalization In summation of these hypotheses the stately and societal level of analysis offers the greatest explanation for the three puzzles as governmental factors play the most influential role in international relations In the case of democratic peace theory an individual s morality is used as a compass for a democratic society to be an example of positive morality operating on the individual level of analysis Yet even if states are democratic their capital power capacity and interests political arrangements and geography in the case of bordering states more intensely influences policy decisions A state s outward behavior is easily influenced by domestic politics whereby bureaucratic politics would case it to change allegiance to an ally for the sake of maintaing public support in a democracy or where it would readily go to war in order to protect its power and economic interests as in the case of any form of governmental structure While the individual decision maker is important the system operates under the assumption that most states are rational actors and are self interested whereby any individual would act in the interest of power capabilities domestic political arrangements or electoral calculations in order to achieve its interests in the international community While social movements and the peoples voice influence statecraft decisions and interests within the actual government most noticeably explain these international relations puzzles Works Cited Aljazeera America 2014 March 31 South Korea returns fire into North Korean waters Retrieved March 31 2014 from http america aljazeera com articles 2014 3 31 skorea fireintonkoreanwaters html returns The IR Theory Knowledge Base n d The IR Theory Knowledge Base Retrieved March 28 442014 from http www irtheory com know htm