Test 1 Global Issue s Articles Article 1 Global Trends 2025 A Transformed World US National Intelligence Council By 2025 the international system will be unrecognizable o It will be replaced by a global multipolar system Multipolar systems are historically more unstable Do not believe we are headed toward a complete breakdown o The US is likely to remain the single most powerful actor but its strength will decline and US leverage will be more constrained Global wealth and economic power is shifting from West to East o Increases in oil and commodity prices have created huge profits in Most impact on the world over the next 20 years than any Gulf States and Russia o BRIC Brazil Russia India China o China other country Second largest economy Biggest natural resource importer Larger polluter o India o Russia Rapid economic growth New Delhi Could be richer and more powerful than ever before if it invests in human capital expands and diversifies its economy and integrates in the global market If it fails to take these steps it will experience significant decline o Turkey Iran and Indonesia will also increase in political and economic power o State Capitalism a loose term to describe a system of economic management that gives a prominent role to the state o Sub Saharan Africa will remain the most vulnerable to economic disruption population stress civil conflict and political instability o Latin America Most countries will become middle class Venezuela and Bolivia will lag behind Haiti will become even poorer o Asia Africa and Latin America will account of virtually all population growth over the next 20 years New Agenda o Resource issues will become more important Energy The world will move away from oil toward natural gas coal and other alternatives Oil will dwindle Food Water Climate Change Demand for food will rise by 50 Lack of access to water is a critical problem Expected to exacerbate resource scarcities Large agricultural losses New Technologies Could provide solutions All current technologies are inadequate for replacing the traditional energy architecture on the scale needed Terrorism Conflict and Proliferation o Diffusion of technologies will place some of the world s most dangerous capabilities within terrorists reach o Fear terrorists will employ biological agents or nuclear weapons o The force of ideology is likely to be strongest in the Muslim world o Naval build ups and interstate conflicts could result from perceptions of energy scarcity o Greater chance of nuclear weapon use Asian Regionalism o Trend toward three trade and financial clusters that could become quasi blocs North America Europe East Asia o Quasi blocs would have implications for the ability of future global World Trade Organization agreements Critical Thinking 1 What is the author s point of view which is the basis of this article a The article makes the world sound kind of bleak The US will decline there could be new and worse violence and resources will be a big issue A new multipolar society will arise 2 What reasons are given to support this view a China Russia India and other countries will rise to considerable power This will lead to new problems instability and competition 3 Who are the so called BRIC countries a Brazil Russia India China 4 What is meant by state capitalism a A system of economic management that gives a prominent role to the state 5 What is the new transnational agenda 6 a Resources demand for food climate change new technologies In addition to nation states who are some of the new international actors a Nongovernmental organizations NGOs businesses tribes religious organizations Article 2 The New Geopolitics of Food Lester Brown Critical Thinking 1 Identify Lester Brown s point of view which is the basis for this article a We must do something to maintain food security 2 What are the primary reasons he offers to support his point of view a 3 What are the reasons for grain doubling since 2007 a Grain prices doubled because of accelerating growth demand and difficulty in rapidly expanding production 4 What impact on food prices does the demand for crop based fuels have a Demand for crop based fuels increase food prices 5 What three environmental trends are making it more difficult to expand a Rising temperatures soil erosion and water shortages 6 How does this article illustrate the relationship between natural resources grain supply and social structure 7 How is the concept of sustainability illustrated in this article 8 What alternatives to current practices does Brown purpose 9 Do the authors of Article 1 give the same priority to threats to the food supply that Brown does Article 3 The End of Easy Everything Michael Klare Critical Thinking 1 What is the predictable pattern in resource extraction a The pattern is a shift from easy sources to tough ones Tough sources mean the oil is physically economically or politically more difficult and dangerous to extract 2 What is the shale revolution a The Shale Revolution is the potential for recovering vast quantities of gas from shale rock using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking 3 How does Klare assess this so called revolution a He says this blessing is misleading The process will increase greenhouse gases accelerate climate change cost more and cause more disasters 4 What is meant by the end of easy oil a New oil discoveries are mainly physically economically or politically harder to extract 5 Compare the prospects of energy resources to mineral resources a Both energy and mineral resources are facing the same problem depletion leading to more difficult dangerous places and extracting methods 6 Do the authors of Article 1 give the same priority to the changing circumstances of natural resource extraction that Klare gives a No Article 1 says oil reserves are depleted and we must find new methods Klare says oil reserve are being depleted but there is still plenty of oil there While it will be difficult to reach and costly oil still exists Instead of making a shift from oil to other resources Klare says we are making a shift from easy to tough oil Article 5 Why the World Needs America Robert Kagan Critical Thinking US 1 Describe the debate about the future international order and the role of the a The end of the era of American pre eminent does not mean the end of the present international order The image of a post American world would not look very different from today 2 What is Kagan s view on this debate a Kagan contradicts