Need Theory Evaluations Silver bullet solutions o Something that very quickly and easily solves a serious problem o Places primary emphasis on drugs and in turn emphasis on other approaches to resolving crime o Lead to creation investment in criminal justice policies that are not the most effective or efficient o Effective when The targeted cause is truly a cause of the outcome of interest The cause is widespread The cause is easily open to modification These conditions rarely if ever hold true in the system and yet many policies take a largely single minded focus toward reducing crime Size location trends cause of problems o Size o Location o Trends o Cause How big the problem is in absolute and relative terms Knowing something about the distribution of a problem in social or geographical space The patterns of the problem Essential step in both defining problem and Determining how to respond Casual relationships o When describing policy theory it can help to state explicitly the type of casual relationship anticipated o Linear Means that for each additional unit of the policy some specific quantity of effect can be anticipated Means that the effects of a unit change might vary depending on the level of dosage o Nonlinear Defining crime o Can be complex Outcomes o Do the needs and policy evaluations create the desired results o These are the intended outcomes based of policy and procedure implementation What needs evaluations do o Helps to identify whether a problem exists and in turn whether and what type of a policy response is indicated o Provides guidance on prioritizing different problems o Points to research gaps that must be addressed before it can be determined that a policy response merits implementation o Highlight the dimensions relevant to assessing success o Clarify policy decisions Outputs o The actions products or services that define the policy Stages of conducting a needs evaluation o Conceptual endeavor Aimed at describing as specifically as possible the social problem thought to exist o Development of quantitative estimates of the problem o Finally in an effort to form the development of an effective policy response a needs evaluation will describe the current efforts to address the problem the causes of the problem What a policy theory evaluation consists of o Policy theory serves much the same purpose as theory does in the social sciences o Helps to explain how some specific policy related activities or services are expected to cause some intended outcomes Conditioning factors o Characteristics of the policy environment The policy or target groups areas that directly indirectly in interaction with other factors effect activities outputs or outcomes Also defined as a casual logic dimension Service utilization plans contacted treated o Involves reference to such dimensions as how frequently clients will be o The duration of participation in exposure to the policy o Protocols that must be followed in executing different activities or providing certain services Purpose of needs evaluations o To inform policy decisions Why needs evaluations are important o Identify if problem exists scope and nature of problem o Provides guidance about whether a policy should be retained and what type of policy response is to be considered o Clarify policy discussions debates o Aids in efforts to prioritize problems that need attention o Highlight research gaps How the credibility of policy theory can be evaluated o Examine whether a policy theory targets a social problem that actually exists o Assess the logic and plausibility of a policy s theory o Investigate whether social science or research exists to support all or part of the policy especially its critical assumptions Mass Incarceration Mass Incarceration the incarceration of inmates is a correctional policy it represents a decision to use long term confinement of individuals to achieve some goal such as retribution rehabilitation or public safety What brought on changes in the mass incarceration rate o Going from indeterminate judges have freedom with sentencing to determinate sentencing must meet criteria for a certain sentence How CJ policies influence the incarceration rate o Crime rate and policy changes are related o Policy changes determine the likelihood and duration of incarceration for those arrested o Sentencing reforms at the state and local levels have had the largest influence on incarceration rates Policy has moved primarily towards the development of sentencing guidelines and determinant sentencing policies o Policy reforms over time Mid 1970 s to mid 1980 s Reforms aimed to make sentencing procedures fairer and outcomes more predictable and consistent Mid 1980 s to 1996 Changes in sentencing policy were aimed primarily at making sentences for drug and violent crimes harsher and their imposition more certain What effect does increase in crime have on incarceration rates o Increases in crime have little to no effect on incarceration rates 1971 1991 Increases in violent and property crimes were unassociated with increases in incarceration rates among states o Incarceration is generally inefficient at reducing crime Who is affected by felon disenfranchisement o Felon disenfranchisement One consequence of involvement with the CJS loss of voting rights varies by state o 5 8 million Americans are unable to vote due to state felony disenfranchisement policies The loss of rights disproportionally affects men and minorities Characteristics of the incarcerated population in the US o The incarcerated population in the U S is overwhelmingly male and a racial minority o Incarceration rate for women are on the rise o Two factors contributing to the increase 1 the war on drugs 2 the shift from indeterminate to determinate sentencing o South has the highest incarceration rates o Northeast has the lowest incarceration rates Because different laws in different places o 6 9 Million are involved in the CJS in someway 1 5 million are in state federal prisons 70 are under supervision probation parole 30 incarcerated in the nations prisons or jails 3 9 million adults on probation 850 000 on parole mandatory conditional release following a prison term Mass Incarceration Article Why Are So Many Americans in Prison It could take almost 90 years for the country s prison population to get down to where it was in 1980 unless the rate of decline speeds up significantly Many reformers think mass incarceration is the result of the war on