Why is Theory Important Helps explain how the world works Ultimately we want to know several things o The origin of a problem o What causes a change in the problem o If we know both the origin of and driving forces behind a problem we can then control it Why is Theory Important for Policy o Explains the underlying casual logic of a problem o Identifies the casual relationship between important factors that are o If we don t know the nature of the relationship between factors that related to the problem impact a problem we cannot begin to build policy strategies to address the problem Three Important Dimensions of Theory Evaluation 1 Organizational Plan o How a policy will be implemented o Important service providers o Service provider responsibilities o Service locations o Delivery of services 2 Service Utilization o How aspects of a policy will be implemented and members of the treatment population o The duration of services o Procedures that must be followed by both service providers o Systematic way of delivering services for certain populations Risk Need Responsivity RNR Bonta Andrews 2007 Group o A Dependence on drugs o B Criminal thinking o C Self improvement and management o D Interpersonal skills Life skills o E Punishment only o How delivery of services are expected to produce intended o Members of the target population that will benefit o Sources of funding or staff personnel that allow the policy to exist Outputs Short term outcomes o Services or actions that produce change o Relatively immediate observed changes 3 Impact Theory outcomes Targets Inputs Long term outcomes o Final changes that are a result of policy services Conditional Influences o Direct effects o Indirect effects o Interaction effects Identifying the Goals and Outcomes of a Policy Helps establish what to expect from a policy Important to include all goals and expected outcomes o This may uncover what goals a given policy achieves more than other goals Casual Logic of the Problem o What members of treatment population are most likely to be effected o Selection effects o Internal Program Effects o Influences that occur within the treatment setting Coping strategies Sentencing o External Program Effects o Influences that occur outside of the treatment setting Reduced aggression Diverted away from the CJ system Type of Relationship Between Important Factors and the Problem o Linear relationship o Nonlinear relationship o For every 1 unit in a factor there is an in the problem o For every 1 unit in a factor there is an in the size of the problem depending on the subject s ex individual neighborhood city etc baseline level o Important to consider threshold effects when developing a policy to treat individuals Conducting a Theory Evaluation o Talk with key decision makers Governor Mayor Organization leader o Local Residents Gain important insight from people who are personally effected May help uncover important factors that are contributing to a by the problem problem in one area but not another o Offer further evidence on what is driving the problem Help guide future research and inform theory Evaluating Policy Theory arguments Compare and contrast the needs of a policy with the theoretical Logic and plausibility o The more needs and theory align the better o Cause and effect relationship o X causes Y o Is the situation really what we think it is Preliminary observations The Importance of a Theory Evaluation 1 Lay foundation for what we can expect from a specific policy approach 2 Outline what needs must be addressed and how effectively addressing 3 Uncover the activities and services which are necessary for change these needs will lead to overall change Sex Offender Policy Sex Offenses Rape o Statutory o Spousal Child Sexual Abuse o Pedophilia Sexual Harassment Public Urination Streaking Mainstream Sex Offender Policies Jacob Wetterling Crimes Against Children and Sexually Violent Offender Registration Act 1994 o Require states to create a sex offender registry to track and o Man asked group of boys who was the youngest Took Jacob with monitor sex offenders after their first offense him and forced other boys to run away into woods or he would shoot them Jacob was never seen again Megan s Law 1996 o Amended the Wetterling Act o Required law enforcement authorities to make sex offender o Sex offender s name picture current address date of offenses o Sex offender neighbor invited Megan in to see his puppy and registry information available to public and nature of sexual offenses then raped and murdered her The Need for Sex Offender Policies Wide spread media coverage Interest groups advocate for reform Size of sexual offender population Very small Location of most sexual offending o Are there more sexual offenders in one place than another Trend of sexual offender recidivism Increasing Causes of sexual offending o Still uncovering important motivating factors that give rise to sexual offending The Need for Sex Offender Policies Need to monitor sexual offenders Need to create distance between sexual offenders vulnerable victims Public support for reform Theoretical Foundation for Sex Offender Policies Social Control Theory o State monitors sex offender whereabouts o Public can have a say in where sex offenders can reside Implementation of Sex Offender Policies Residency restrictions Sex offender registry o Cannot live within 1000 2000 ft of a school or child care facility o Helps law enforcement monitor sex offenders o Helps the public be aware of registered sex offenders nearby Impact Evaluation of Sex Offender Policies Perhaps a decrease in sexual offender recidivism o However we don t know if this decrease is due to sex offender policy reform Has led to an increase in homelessness among registered sex offenders since they cannot live near several areas Cost Efficiency of Sex Offender Policies No idea More effort by police to make sure sex offenders are registered Public information is free but it costs state agencies to maintain this type of information Current Research on Sexual Offenders compared to other offenders o Be in a position to offend those they can control According to the readings sex offenders are less likely to recidivate However research suggests that sexual offenders tend to be older The best predicator of future sexual offending was frequency of prior arrests which could be an indicator for other bad behavioral problems James Cantor and colleagues have used brain scanning techniques to