I II Introduction to Realism Classical Realism power Hans Morgenthau Under a century old post world wars A Response to US Idealism from Enlightenment ideas pre WWI WWII B Pursuit of Power real politick Believe war is natural and will eventually happen Neo Realism Kenneth Waltz A Aka Structural Realism Rejects the idea that war is caused by individuals but rather by international structures how states are aligned their competition B Assumptions 1 States are rational unitary actors 2 States seek security Regardless of a state s politics all look out for their own interests survival 3 Anarchy breeds insecurity There cannot be one governing body over all states they must do so on their own C Balance of Power prevents war 1 Bandwagon ing building alliances Weaker states want to join stronger states Benefits protection war spoils Leads to war i e 1939 Non Aggression Act Germany Russia 2 Balancing most stable reduces war D Polarity 1 Bi polarity 2 major powers 2 Multi polarity many different powers pre WWII 3 Uni polarity Hegemony 1 power post Cold War E Security Dilemma Prisoner s Dilemma the Arms Race Distrust of institutions it is better to be prepared for war than to be surprised by it Alliances are not fixed World wide cooperation is problematic because there is no central authority Gains are relative if I gain but you gain more than me I would rather neither of us gain at all Realism blames leadership Neo realism blames security issues they both look for preventative measures Liberalism Foreign Policy 1 Improve Communication 2 Recognize other states as equal 3 Spread Democracy Realism Continued I WWI A Germany and the Security Dilemma II Interwar to WWII A Balance of power Surrounding states did not know how to perceive the new united Germany felt threatened GEOGRAPHY is important Germany in center of Europe Otto von Bismark real politick German leader aggressive B Balance of Power and Reasons for its demise 1 Power transition 1871 Germany s unification shifts balance of power Britain declining defensive Germany increasing offensive vulnerability 2 Russia and Preventative War Germany feared Russia would be stronger than them in the long run if they did not act now As a result Russian German Ottoman Austria Hungarian empires fall Balance of power shifts Pyrrhic victory for France Britain victory not worth it b c of so much damage Balance of power was never restored after WWI B League of Nations Lacked military arm only as powerful as its most powerful member Britain France Tried to remove international anarchy lacked cooperation from all of its members Japan Italy Japan made puppet state out of Manchukuo leaves LON in 1933 Italy invades Ethiopia in 1935 LON cannot help because Britain refuses to C Appeasement Other nations were not strong enough to fight back so instead tried to satisfy Germany as well as Britain not imposing oil embargo to satisfy Italy Germany D Nazi Germany as a Revisionist State Revisionist in pursuit of hegemony 1933 Germany exits LON Hitler comes into power 1935 Germany rearms itself against Treaty of Versailles 1938 Austria annexed went for Sudetenland Munich conference appeasement Realists do not blame Hitler but rather the internal international structure III The Cold War Erupts Feb 1945 Big 3 Yalta determine post war Europe United States wanted to spread democracy in Europe A Division of Post War Europe Each country administers what land they can Germany is co administered B Eastern Europe Soviet Satellites Soviets gain influence in East Europe US enforces democracy Stalin agrees Communism wins elections C Marshall Plan 1948 Stalin perceived as a threat Intended to revitalize economic stability in Europe and unify Germany D NATO 1949 Warsaw Pact 1955 North Atlantic Treaty Organization vs Soviet Counterpart Bipolarity E Bipolar world Balance of power The Cold War was due to ideological differences America s fear of communism and the natural behavior of states Realist belief Realism and the Cold War I II Nature of the Cold War Seen in Suez Canal Crisis Suez Canal Access to Red Sea in Egypt 1 We have a tendency to fight in peripheral arenas 2 Neither side was willing to risk nuclear war 3 Both sides saw wisdom in balance of power A Nasser head of Arab nationalist movement solidifying Egyptian independence from UK Nasser s plan was to pin USSR and USA against each other this became apparent in time to USA B Aswan Dam Both sides wanted to help Egyptians build dam This dam would allow Egypt to increase Industrial capacity strengthen Egypt Nasser asked for arms from USA USA consented Egypt disagreed with the contract strings attached and instead receives arms from USSR USA gives Egypt 50 60 Million gift for dam Egypt recognized Communist China USA retracts gift C Lessons we can learn everything plays into Cold War politics 1 Balance of power diverts war 2 War is not always the answer 3 Little states can tip the balance of power D Effects on US Allies Oct 1956 War Outbreak in Egypt attempt to nationalize canal British were kicked out of Suez Canal by Egyptians British French negotiate w Israel so that Israel invades Egypt British grew closer to USA but French grew bitter angry towards USA and withdrew from NATO to seek independence Europe further divided by Germany France distrusting USA Cold War Deterrence Bipolar world with nuclear weapons stability risk of nuclear war too high MAD Mutual Assured Destruction A Weighing the Risks US discourages threatens Britain France Israel in order to keep Soviets from entering a war B Conventional vs Nuclear Weapons Conventional play a limited role in deterring war because you aren t facing complete destruction Nuclear play a significant role because they threaten survival Impact of Nuclear Deterrence Greatest deterrence method powers are hesitant to use Nuclear weapons negate state size territory relevance C III D Nuclear Power a Peaceful End to Cold War Tipping balance of power risk to world Smaller states have a greater role Nuclear power offers deterrent against USA aggression during Soviet division Ending the Cold War Mikhail Gorbachev 1985 reformist relaxed control in Eastern Satellite states Under leadership of Brezhnev USA USSR have a d tente China 1959 Communist Soviets strong economy US must leave Vietnam A Decline of Soviet Military Power Influence Economy Things go south for Soviets China Soviets do not get along Sino Soviet split Chinese look for reproachment with USA Cuba costs Soviets too much drains economy