EXAM 3 CHEAT SHEET Form of Analogical Arguments a1 a2 an and c all have P1 P2 Pk a1 a2 an all have Q c has Q Criteria for Evaluating Analogical Arguments Number of Analogues Variety of Analogues Number of Similarities Number of Differences Relevance of Similarities Differences Modesty Ambition of the Conclusion Decision Tree for Probability Problems Expected Value EV P O1 x V O1 P O2 x V O2 P On x V On expected utility is the same just replacing Vs with Us Bernoulli Utility Function Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth y t i l i t U 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Wealth Bayes Law P Hk x P E Hk P Hk E 1 k n P H1 x P E H1 P H2 x P E H2 P Hn x P E Hn Confidence Intervals Mean 1 SD 68 3 Mean 2 SD 95 4 Mean 3 SD 99 7 Sensitivity and Specificity Sensitivity a test is more sensitive the more frequently it gives true positive results Specificity a test is more specific the more frequently it gives true negative results