EXAM 3 Practice PHILOS 111 Knachel Name Show how the following passage exemplifies the general form of analogical arguments by identifying the a s P s c and Q 4 pts 1 You ve never had swordfish Oh I think you ll like it You like salmon and tuna right Swordfish is similar to those it s got a sturdy flesh it s oily and flavorful and it can be grilled to great effect Consider the following inductive argument Say whether each new premise weakens or strengthens it or has neither effect Indicate which of the six criteria for the appraisal of inductive arguments justifies that judgment 2 pts each I ve always bought General Motors vehicles and they ve always been very reliable I fully expect the GM car I just bought also to be very reliable 2 My past GM purchases have included both cars and trucks and I ve had many of the GM brands Saturns Buicks Oldmobiles Chevrolets and Pontiacs 3 I ve owned a whopping seventeen GM vehicles 4 I ve been a Buick man all my life but this time I m going with a Saturn 5 In fact all of my other GM cars never broke down or needed any repairs and they all ended up with over 2 000 000 miles on the odometer 6 I ve always bought Chevy Cavaliers and this time will be no different Here is a refutation by analogy Write down the argument or claim that s being refuted and the analogous argument or claim that does the refuting 2 pts 7 The honorable senator from Wisconsin claims that if we pass his bill it ll take the money out of politics What s next a bill that takes the hydrogen out of water In the following sentences which sense of the word cause is being used Is it cause in the sense of necessary condition sufficient condition or neither a mere tendency to produce a certain effect 2 pts each 8 Eating lots of highly processed sugary food causes diabetes 9 Swimming in molten lava causes skin irritation Respond to the following as indicated 10 Consider the following scenario Albert Betty Connie Darryl and Ernie went to a party at Francine s house There was a spread of food for snacking on which included taco dip pita chips and hummus pasta salad Swedish meatballs and cake Later on Albert Darryl and Francine all got violently sick and were diagnosed with food poisoning Here s what they all ate at the party Albert taco dip pita chips and hummus Swedish meatballs cake Betty taco dip pita chips and hummus cake Connie cake Darryl everything Ernie taco dip and cake Francine pita chips and hummus pasta salad Swedish meatballs a Using only the Method of Agreement how far can we narrow down our choices in the search for the food that caused the sickness 2 pts b Using only the Method of Difference how far can we narrow down our choices in the search for the food that caused the sickness 2 pts c Using the Joint Method of Agreement and Difference how far can we narrow down our choices in the search for the food that caused the sickness 1 pt 11 The usual symptoms of regular bacterial pneumonia are rapid onset of sickness high fever and unusually rapid breathing If in addition to these symptoms the patient complains of sore throat and headache normal pneumonia bacteria can no longer be considered the cause the Method of Residues demands an alternative cause which turns out to be a special bacterium Mycoplasma What s the residue in this example 2 pts 12 We all know that too much TV can be bad for kids Name a quantity that varies directly with the number of hours per day of television watched then name a quantity that varies inversely with hours per day of TV 4 pts Directly Inversely Work the following problems involving probability Don t carry the calculations all the way through it s enough to indicate that in order to get the answer one must multiply some numbers together without actually carrying out the multiplication 13 An urn contains 11 black balls 4 white balls and 5 red balls If you pick out three balls replacing the ball you ve chosen each time what s the probability that all three will be black 5 pts 14 Same urn again pick three balls What s the probability that they ll all be white if you don t replace the balls after picking them 5 pts 15 You and a friend each enter the Pick3 Lotto picking different numbers between 000 and 999 You pick 123 and he picks 666 thinking this makes him tough or something What s the probability that at least one of you will win 5 pts 16 Each of us has a 1 in 7 chance of getting arthritis at some point What are the chances that at least one of Knachel Miley Cyrus or Mr T will eventually suffer from arthritis 5 pts 17 Pick three cards from a deck don t replace them after they re picked keep them What s the probability that all three cards will be of the same suit 5 pts 18 Three friends enroll in a school for wizards Suppose that this school unlike some others assigns students to one of four houses randomly What s the probability that the three friends will be assigned to the same house 5 pts For these problems involving expected value and utility carry out the calculations 19 What is the expected value of a coin flip where heads wins you 1000 and tails wins you 400 4 pts 20 Assuming a utility function as described by Bernoulli mapping 1 unit of wealth to 10 units of utility 2 units of wealth to 30 units of utility and so on 3 48 4 60 5 70 6 78 7 84 8 90 9 96 10 100 what is the expected utility of the coin flip scenario above Suppose a choice was offered to someone with this utility function between the coin flip and a guaranteed 700 Would they choose the coin flip the guarantee or would they be indifferent 5 pts The following involve Bayes Law Respond as indicated don t calculate fully 21 Our simplest formulation of Bayes Law had the same numerator but the denominator was just P E We noted that this formula comported well with our intuitions about belief revision In particular it captured the fact that implausible hypotheses are relatively hard to support This is borne out mathematically because for such cases a P E is high b P H E is low c P E is low d P H is low e P E H is high Circle one 2 pts 22 I run a car company I get all my shock absorbers from two local suppliers Acme Inc and Bolt Co 60 are from Acme 40 from Bolt I buy more from Acme because they re so reliable 95 of their shocks pass quality control tests Bolt is cheaper but only 75 of …