EXAM 3 CHEAT SHEET Form of Analogical Arguments a1, a2, …, an, and c all have P1, P2, …, Pk a1, a2, …, an all have Q___________________ / c has Q Criteria for Evaluating Analogical Arguments - Number of Analogues - Variety of Analogues - Number of Similarities - Number of Differences - Relevance of Similarities/Differences - Modesty/Ambition of the Conclusion Decision Tree for Probability ProblemsExpected Value EV = P(O1) x V(O1) + P(O2) x V(O2) + … + P(On) x V(On) (expected utility is the same, just replacing Vs with Us) Bernoulli Utility Function Bayes’ Law P(Hk) x P(E | Hk) P(Hk | E) = −−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−− [1  k  n] P(H1) x P(E | H1) + P(H2) x P(E | H2) + … + P(Hn) x P(E | Hn) Confidence Intervals Mean +/- 1 SD = 68.3% Mean +/- 2 SD = 95.4% Mean +/- 3 SD = 99.7% Sensitivity and Specificity Sensitivity – a test is more sensitive the more frequently it gives true positive results Specificity – a test is more specific the more frequently it gives true negative results 01020304050607080901000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10UtilityWealthDiminishing Marginal Utility of