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EarthquakesCharles Richter  believed that earthquake prediction was impossibleSpecific earthquakes predictions are misleading, but earthquake forecasting is possible.- Earthquake prediction = a short-term statement (hours/days) that an earthquake will occur at a given location- Earthquake forecast = a long-term statement (years/decades) of the probability of an earthquake in a regionNorth Carolina 1976- Clarissa Bernhardt predicted that a major earthquake would occur in NC between Jan 13 to Jan 20 in 1976o David Stewart confirmed that it was consistent with his findings- Earthquake did not occur, yet the predictions surrounding it decreased business and people took action to protect their homesNew Madird, Missouri 1990- Iben Browning predicted two days before that an earthquake would occur on Dec3, 1990o David Stewart supported his predictions based on the position of the sun, moon, and Earth.- Earthquake did not occur; scientists say it had no scientific basis, and was more ofa random guess.Haicheng, China 1975 = successful earthquake prediction that saved thousands of lives- Zhou En-lai  leader of the Chinese Communist Party who was told of “precursors” to the Xingtai earthquake such as foreshocks, fluctuations in ground water levels, and changes in animal behavioro “People’s Stations”  groups of ordinary citizens who were given the job of trying to predict earthquakes based on precursors Types of Precursors:1. Long-term (decades)2. Medium-term (years)3. Short-term (months)4. Imminent (hours) Earthquake Precursors:- Seismic velocity- Ground uplift/tilt- Radon = a colorless, radioactive, inert gaseous element formed by radioactive decay of radium- Electrical Resistivity- Seismicity- Mao Zedong  Chinese government set up the State Seismological Bureau, which was responsible for earthquake prediction- Haicheng Earthquake was predicted based on a series of foreshocks, but NOT based on any scientific analysis of precursors“Intraplate” Earthquakes = earthquakes in the middle of plates- Earthquakes are correlated with:o Mid-ocean ridgeso Fracture zoneso Ocean trenches- Pail Tapponnier and Bill Brace  coined the analogy of Asian plate tectonics and laboratory stamping1906 San Francisco Earthquake- F.F. Reid  studied the pattern of ground deformation associated with the 1906 San Francisco

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BC EESC 1167 - Earthquakes

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