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Earthquakes Charles Richter believed that earthquake prediction was impossible Specific earthquakes predictions are misleading but earthquake forecasting is possible Earthquake prediction a short term statement hours days that an earthquake Earthquake forecast a long term statement years decades of the probability will occur at a given location of an earthquake in a region North Carolina 1976 Clarissa Bernhardt predicted that a major earthquake would occur in NC between Jan 13 to Jan 20 in 1976 o David Stewart confirmed that it was consistent with his findings Earthquake did not occur yet the predictions surrounding it decreased business and people took action to protect their homes New Madird Missouri 1990 Iben Browning predicted two days before that an earthquake would occur on Dec 3 1990 o David Stewart supported his predictions based on the position of the sun Earthquake did not occur scientists say it had no scientific basis and was more of moon and Earth a random guess Haicheng China 1975 successful earthquake prediction that saved thousands of lives Zhou En lai leader of the Chinese Communist Party who was told of precursors to the Xingtai earthquake such as foreshocks fluctuations in ground water levels and changes in animal behavior o People s Stations groups of ordinary citizens who were given the job of trying to predict earthquakes based on precursors Types of Precursors 1 Long term decades 2 Medium term years 3 Short term months Imminent hours 4 Earthquake Precursors Seismic velocity Ground uplift tilt Radon formed by radioactive decay of radium a colorless radioactive inert gaseous element Electrical Resistivity Seismicity Mao Zedong Chinese government set up the State Seismological Bureau which was responsible for earthquake prediction Haicheng Earthquake was predicted based on a series of foreshocks but NOT based on any scientific analysis of precursors Intraplate Earthquakes earthquakes in the middle of plates Earthquakes are correlated with o Mid ocean ridges o Fracture zones o Ocean trenches and laboratory stamping 1906 San Francisco Earthquake San Francisco earthquake Pail Tapponnier and Bill Brace coined the analogy of Asian plate tectonics F F Reid studied the pattern of ground deformation associated with the 1906

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BC EESC 1167 - Earthquakes

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