POLS 207 Exam III NotesFigure 6.1 Public Participation in Politics, a Hierarchy of Influence Non Participants Run for Office Vote for Elected Offices (Indirect Democracy) Initiative & Ref. (Direct Democracy) Protestors Attend Public Meetings Less than 1% 3-20% 20-50% in western states 10-60% depending on type of election Uncertain Apart from Presidential Elections > 60% Increased Impact on Policy - Political participation [hierarchy of influence, most people do not participate]- Largest chunk of people in our society do not vote, etc. (greater than 60%)- Illegal immigrants typically do not vote- Controversy in spending money to set rules against illegal immigrants voting- Moralistic: high voting turnout- Traditionalistic: low voting turnout- Individualistic: middle voting turnout- 1% of people run for political office (3 million people)o Huge chunk of society unlikely to run rather than runForms of Public Participation- Votingo Easiest one to keep track of, partake in- Talk about politicso Men are more likely (women traditionally have been taught that politics is a “men’s business”)o Our democracy was one of the last to allow women to vote (many still don’t)- Organizationso About politics (movements, student-led, etc.)- Attending public meetingso Allows one to add input (tell city council you want roads repaired, etc.)- Contributionso Money; don’t have to actively use time to participate- Communicating with representativeso Writing letter to senator/congressman/local state house member, etc.- Campaigningo Calling people to vote, stuffing envelopes, making posters, etc.- Initiating and repealing lawso Initiative and referendum Particularly Western states have themo Direct participation from the people (call governor, create new laws depending on what the people of the state prefer)- Seeking public officeo 1% running for office (takes time/privacy)o Those who are highly motivated runDifficulties for Scientific Study- Self-reported information- Reliability and validityo Whether they collect the information randomly/correctly, try to minimize sampling errors/margin of error in all votingo Trying to collect public opinion polls is difficult – its scientific- Bias in responseo If you ask the wrong question, you’ll get the wrong answero People don’t know how “intensely” they feel on opinions (some people feel more strongly on topics than others)Survey Research and Polling: The American Voter- The American Voter was published in 1960 and continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior- This book studied the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections and discussed how classcoalitions led to party affiliation. These early studies How we Measure Public Opinion1. Question wordinga. You need to know how questions are phrased. Bad questions lead to bad results.b. Asking “what year were you born” is a better question than “how old are you” because people forget their agec. Did you vote in the last election? People will say yes because they feel guilty for not votingi. Try to word things to keep people from lying2. Samplinga. In order for a poll to be reliable, the sample must be taken accurately. The best method is a scientific random sample. Such a sample guarantees that each person in the population has the same statistical chance of being selected. There are a number of sampling techniques. Some of the techniques are poor and should be avoided such as nonstratified sampling, straw polls, and most nonprobability sampling methods. A more reliable nonprobability method is a quota sample in which a pollster ensures representatives using quotas.b. Sex, age group, IQ, etc. non-scientific because everyone is different, better to have data beforehand and divide itc. E.g. going to mall at 9am (individuals typically will be women, unemployed, and have money)3. Contacting respondentsShortcomings of Polling- Sampling error [margin of error or sampling error is quite small if the sample is carefully selected. All polls contain some error, 3 to 5% is considered a reasonably small rate of error. A 3% error rate means that the polis 97% accurate. o These rates have become extremely important if the race is close: Kerry 47%, George Bush 48% Margin of error: 5% These numbers do not mean anything. The contestants are only 1 point apart, given the error rate the real race could look like this:- Kerry 42% (47-5), George Bush 53% (48+5)- Limited Respondent Options [have you ever taken a survey (or test) and said I don’t like any of the answers? If the options are not broad enough, you get bad results]- Lack of information [if survey questions ask about things the respondents don’t understand or don’t know about, the answers will often be invalid]o E.g. want to get rid of interviewer over phone so give short answers, cookingon stove while surveying on phone and mind is distractedo The use of filter questions is helpful here such as “have you though about…?”- Intensity [polls do not measure intensity well. You will learn a position on an issue but now how strong that opinion might be]- Elitism [deliberative polls have been accused of elite bias. Time will tell whether this form of polling will catch on]Participation- Uncommon - Participants not representative of population- Most people do not vote in the primaries (usually different and extreme)Who participates depends on turnout- Primary turnout is always the lowest- Those who turn out are extremists- More centrist votes that extreme votes- If turnout is large, the moderate is going to win (cancelling the other out)Texas Electoral Turnout0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010Top line: percent registeredBottom line: percent voting age population- In U.S., we have a two-step voting process (register, vote); majority of countries have one-step process- If you make it easier to vote, poor/uneducated people will be more likely to voteo Idea that democratic party at advantage if this happenso Did not come trueElectoral Support for Texas Governor (percent of voting page population)- Perry had the lowest ratePercent of Texas Voting Age Population Registered- Registration is very political- Try to get as many advantages as possible through thepolitical process- Gerrymandering (redistricting – common rigging of electoral system)- TX makes it difficult to register prior to Voting Rights Act- Homeless people/people in transition cannot
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