POLS 207 Exam III Notes Figure 6 1 Public Participation in Politics a Hierarchy of Influence Run for Office Protestors Less than 1 Uncertain 3 20 Attend Public Meetings Initiative Ref Direct Democracy 20 50 in western states Increased Impact on Policy Vote for Elected Offices Indirect Democracy 10 60 depending on type of election Non Participants Apart from Presidential Elections 60 Political participation hierarchy of influence most people do not participate Largest chunk of people in our society do not vote etc greater than 60 Illegal immigrants typically do not vote Controversy in spending money to set rules against illegal immigrants voting Moralistic high voting turnout Traditionalistic low voting turnout Individualistic middle voting turnout 1 of people run for political office 3 million people o Huge chunk of society unlikely to run rather than run Forms of Public Participation Voting o Easiest one to keep track of partake in Talk about politics o Men are more likely women traditionally have been taught that politics is a men s business o Our democracy was one of the last to allow women to vote many still don t Organizations o About politics movements student led etc Attending public meetings o Allows one to add input tell city council you want roads repaired etc Contributions Campaigning o Money don t have to actively use time to participate Communicating with representatives o Writing letter to senator congressman local state house member etc o Calling people to vote stuffing envelopes making posters etc Initiating and repealing laws o Initiative and referendum Particularly Western states have them o Direct participation from the people call governor create new laws depending on what the people of the state prefer Seeking public office o 1 running for office takes time privacy o Those who are highly motivated run Difficulties for Scientific Study Self reported information Reliability and validity o Whether they collect the information randomly correctly try to minimize sampling errors margin of error in all voting o Trying to collect public opinion polls is difficult its scientific Bias in response o If you ask the wrong question you ll get the wrong answer o People don t know how intensely they feel on opinions some people feel more strongly on topics than others Survey Research and Polling The American Voter The American Voter was published in 1960 and continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior This book studied the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections and discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation These early studies How we Measure Public Opinion 1 Question wording results 2 Sampling a a You need to know how questions are phrased Bad questions lead to bad b Asking what year were you born is a better question than how old are you because people forget their age c Did you vote in the last election People will say yes because they feel guilty for not voting i Try to word things to keep people from lying In order for a poll to be reliable the sample must be taken accurately The best method is a scientific random sample Such a sample guarantees that each person in the population has the same statistical chance of being selected There are a number of sampling techniques Some of the techniques are poor and should be avoided such as nonstratified sampling straw polls and most nonprobability sampling methods A more reliable nonprobability method is a quota sample in which a pollster ensures representatives using quotas b Sex age group IQ etc non scientific because everyone is different better to have data beforehand and divide it c E g going to mall at 9am individuals typically will be women unemployed and have money 3 Contacting respondents Shortcomings of Polling Sampling error margin of error or sampling error is quite small if the sample is carefully selected All polls contain some error 3 to 5 is considered a reasonably small rate of error A 3 error rate means that the polis 97 accurate o These rates have become extremely important if the race is close Kerry 47 George Bush 48 Margin of error 5 These numbers do not mean anything The contestants are only 1 point apart given the error rate the real race could look like this Kerry 42 47 5 George Bush 53 48 5 Limited Respondent Options have you ever taken a survey or test and said I don t like any of the answers If the options are not broad enough you get bad results Lack of information if survey questions ask about things the respondents don t understand or don t know about the answers will often be invalid o E g want to get rid of interviewer over phone so give short answers cooking on stove while surveying on phone and mind is distracted o The use of filter questions is helpful here such as have you though about Intensity polls do not measure intensity well You will learn a position on an issue but now how strong that opinion might be Elitism deliberative polls have been accused of elite bias Time will tell whether this form of polling will catch on Participation Uncommon Participants not representative of population Most people do not vote in the primaries usually different and extreme Who participates depends on turnout Primary turnout is always the lowest Those who turn out are extremists More centrist votes that extreme votes Texas Electoral Turnout If turnout is large the moderate is going to win cancelling the other out 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Top line percent registered Bottom line percent voting age population l n o i t a u p o P e g A g n i t o V f o e g a t n e c r e P 70 60 50 40 30 In U S we have a two step voting process register vote majority of countries have one step process If you make it easier to vote poor uneducated people will be more likely to vote o Idea that democratic party at advantage if this happens o Did not come true Electoral Support for Texas Governor percent of voting page population Perry had the lowest rate Percent of Texas Voting Age Population Registered Registration is very political Try to get as many advantages as possible through the political process Gerrymandering redistricting common rigging of electoral system TX makes it difficult to register prior to Voting Rights Act Homeless people people in transition cannot vote because you must have a permanent address in TX to vote excludes the poor If you make voting process easier and see a decline there is a problem Explanations
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